THE BOARD

The Numbers Behind the Noise.

MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.

SIGNATURE MODEL

Numbers Before Narratives.

MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

MMH POWER INDEX

Team Ratings

2025-26 season • 366 Division I teams

TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET

#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference

81.7122.295.2+26.9

#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference

80.9122.397+25.2

#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference

79.9120.396.9+23.4

#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference

79.7120.999.3+21.7

#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference

76.5125103.3+21.7

#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference

76.4119.794+25.7

#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference

76118.495.9+22.5

#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference

75.9119.396+23.3

#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference

73.2124.8107.8+17

#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference

70.7116.797.4+19.3

#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference

70.3114.497.6+16.8

#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference

70.2116.398.4+17.9

#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference

69.8117101.5+15.5

#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference

69.5121.6111.2+10.4

#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference

69.3122.2109.8+12.4

#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference

69123.898.3+25.5

#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference

68.9119101.8+17.2

#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference

68.9120.9105.7+15.2

#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference

68.8117.3101.6+15.7

#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference

68.6115.8102.1+13.6

#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference

67.1118.6102.2+16.5

#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference

67114.498.3+16.1

#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference

66.7120.897.6+23.2

#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference

66.7117.498.3+19.1

#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference

65.8122.7103.3+19.4

MMH MATCHUPS

Games

← Previous DayDecember 14, 2025Next Day →

MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD

Michigan at Maryland • FINAL36-3 • 12-20Final Score: Michigan 101-83 Maryland

Michigan 97.3%Maryland 2.7%

88-66153.8Michigan -22.6

Indiana at Kentucky • FINAL18-14 • 22-14Final Score: Indiana 60-72 Kentucky

Kentucky 75.8%Indiana 24.2%

74-81155.3Kentucky -7.6

UC Riverside at BYU • FINAL10-22 • 23-12Final Score: UC Riverside 53-100 BYU

BYU 95.4%UC Riverside 4.6%

69-89158.0BYU -20.3

Arizona at Alabama • FINAL36-3 • 24-10Final Score: Arizona 96-75 Alabama

Arizona 65.7%Alabama 34.3%

87-83170.2Arizona -4.1

UCLA at Gonzaga • FINAL24-12 • 31-4Final Score: UCLA 72-82 Gonzaga

Gonzaga 88.1%UCLA 11.9%

68-83151.3Gonzaga -14.9

Eastern Illinois at Iowa State • FINAL13-20 • 28-8Final Score: Eastern Illinois 53-78 Iowa State

Iowa State 98.9%Eastern Illinois 1.1%

57-86142.5Iowa State -28.8

Georgia Southern at West Georgia • FINAL21-16 • 15-17Final Score: Georgia Southern 91-85 West Georgia

Georgia Southern 52.6%West Georgia 47.4%

81-81162.4West Georgia -0.1

The Citadel at South Carolina • FINAL11-22 • 13-19Final Score: The Citadel 55-71 South Carolina

South Carolina 87.1%The Citadel 12.9%

69-82151.6South Carolina -12.9

Arizona State at Santa Clara • FINAL17-16 • 26-9Final Score: Arizona State 82-79 Santa Clara

Santa Clara 88.7%Arizona State 11.3%

72-87158.5Santa Clara -14.8

Stanford at San José State • FINAL20-13 • 9-24Final Score: Stanford 86-82 San José State

Stanford 80.3%San José State 19.7%

80-72151.6Stanford -8.0

North Florida at Dayton • FINAL7-25 • 25-12Final Score: North Florida 61-84 Dayton

Dayton 95.8%North Florida 4.2%

69-90158.7Dayton -21.1

Rutgers at Seton Hall • FINAL13-20 • 21-12Final Score: Rutgers 59-81 Seton Hall

Seton Hall 85.3%Rutgers 14.7%

64-77140.5Seton Hall -13.2

Coastal Carolina at Grand Canyon • FINAL19-13 • 20-12Final Score: Coastal Carolina 61-82 Grand Canyon

Grand Canyon 87.6%Coastal Carolina 12.4%

67-79146.0Grand Canyon -12.9

West Virginia at Ohio State • FINAL21-14 • 21-13Final Score: West Virginia 88-89 Ohio State

Ohio State 80.2%West Virginia 19.8%

68-77144.7Ohio State -8.7

San Francisco at Saint Louis • FINAL17-16 • 29-6Final Score: San Francisco 75-85 Saint Louis

Saint Louis 91.4%San Francisco 8.6%

69-86155.4Saint Louis -17.5

SMU at LSU • FINAL20-14 • 15-17Final Score: SMU 77-89 LSU

SMU 60.2%LSU 39.8%

84-82165.6SMU -1.4

Tennessee State at UNLV • FINAL23-10 • 18-16Final Score: Tennessee State 63-60 UNLV

UNLV 55.5%Tennessee State 44.5%

79-81159.6UNLV -1.5

Pepperdine at Cal State Bakersfield • FINAL9-23 • 8-24Final Score: Pepperdine 70-62 Cal State Bakersfield

Pepperdine 54.0%Cal State Bakersfield 46.0%

78-78156.5Cal State Bakersfield -0.2

Mississippi State at Utah • FINAL13-19 • 10-22Final Score: Mississippi State 82-74 Utah

Utah 60.6%Mississippi State 39.4%

78-82160.1Utah -3.6

Duquesne at Nevada • FINAL18-15 • 24-13Final Score: Duquesne 75-78 Nevada

Nevada 82.1%Duquesne 17.9%

72-81152.7Nevada -9.4

Tulane at UC San Diego • FINAL18-15 • 23-11Final Score: Tulane 67-93 UC San Diego

UC San Diego 82.1%Tulane 17.9%

68-80148.2UC San Diego -11.3

UTEP at Hawai'i • FINAL11-20 • 24-9Final Score: UTEP 61-66 Hawai'i

Hawai'i 83.5%UTEP 16.5%

67-80147.1Hawai'i -12.8

Maryland Eastern Shore at Virginia Tech • FINAL9-23 • 19-13Final Score: Maryland Eastern Shore 53-82 Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech 96.5%Maryland Eastern Shore 3.5%

62-83144.9Virginia Tech -20.9

Saint Francis at Temple • FINAL7-24 • 16-16Final Score: Saint Francis 67-95 Temple

Temple 92.7%Saint Francis 7.3%

66-84150.3Temple -17.3

Texas Southern at Minnesota • FINAL12-17 • 15-18Final Score: Texas Southern 53-89 Minnesota

Minnesota 83.1%Texas Southern 16.9%

66-77142.8Minnesota -10.7

High Point at App State • FINAL31-5 • 19-13Final Score: High Point 78-86 App State

High Point 75.8%App State 24.2%

79-72151.0High Point -7.4

Buffalo at East Carolina • FINAL17-15 • 11-20Final Score: Buffalo 70-73 East Carolina

Buffalo 52.3%East Carolina 47.7%

77-77154.1Buffalo -0.5

Bethune-Cookman at Missouri • FINAL17-15 • 20-13Final Score: Bethune-Cookman 60-82 Missouri

Missouri 87.6%Bethune-Cookman 12.4%

72-85156.5Missouri -13.1

Merrimack at Vermont • FINAL23-11 • 22-12Final Score: Merrimack 59-66 Vermont

Vermont 60.9%Merrimack 39.1%

67-71137.6Vermont -4.0

Monmouth at Fairfield • FINAL19-15 • 21-13Final Score: Monmouth 65-73 Fairfield

Fairfield 56.8%Monmouth 43.2%

71-74145.4Fairfield -3.1

Ball State at Campbell • FINAL12-19 • 15-18Final Score: Ball State 64-69 Campbell

Campbell 83.2%Ball State 16.8%

69-79147.9Campbell -9.9

Indiana State at Milwaukee • FINAL11-21 • 12-20Final Score: Indiana State 70-68 Milwaukee

Milwaukee 64.3%Indiana State 35.7%

76-79154.5Milwaukee -3.5

Coppin State at Radford • FINAL7-24 • 16-16Final Score: Coppin State 77-107 Radford

Radford 94.8%Coppin State 5.2%

68-88155.8Radford -20.3

Troy at UAB • FINAL22-12 • 20-12Final Score: Troy 86-85 UAB

UAB 69.4%Troy 30.6%

75-80155.4UAB -5.5

Western Michigan at Iowa • FINAL10-21 • 24-13Final Score: Western Michigan 51-91 Iowa

Iowa 94.8%Western Michigan 5.2%

65-84149.0Iowa -19.0

Florida Gulf Coast at New Mexico • FINAL16-18 • 26-11Final Score: Florida Gulf Coast 59-75 New Mexico

New Mexico 89.9%Florida Gulf Coast 10.1%

70-85155.6New Mexico -15.2

Charlotte at Charleston • FINAL17-17 • 21-11Final Score: Charlotte 67-74 Charleston

Charleston 73.3%Charlotte 26.7%

71-79150.0Charleston -7.3

Kent State at Portland • FINAL24-10 • 15-19Final Score: Kent State 78-88 Portland

Kent State 69.6%Portland 30.4%

84-79162.4Kent State -4.7

Detroit Mercy at Purdue Fort Wayne • FINAL17-15 • 17-15Final Score: Detroit Mercy 77-81 Purdue Fort Wayne

Detroit Mercy 50.9%Purdue Fort Wayne 49.1%

78-80158.0Purdue Fort Wayne -1.5

Chicago State at Loyola Chicago • FINAL7-25 • 9-24Final Score: Chicago State 84-75 Loyola Chicago

Loyola Chicago 70.4%Chicago State 29.6%

68-74142.3Loyola Chicago -6.4

North Texas at South Alabama • FINAL19-14 • 21-12Final Score: North Texas 58-57 South Alabama

South Alabama 60.3%North Texas 39.7%

69-72141.3South Alabama -3.3

Saint Mary's at Boise State • FINAL27-6 • 20-12Final Score: Saint Mary's 67-68 Boise State

Saint Mary's 67.7%Boise State 32.3%

76-72147.9Saint Mary's -4.1

Queens University at Wake Forest • FINAL21-14 • 18-17Final Score: Queens University 73-111 Wake Forest

Wake Forest 76.3%Queens University 23.7%

79-88166.9Wake Forest -8.4

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

HOW TO READ IT

One projection. One permanent result.

MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.

ACCOUNTABILITY

Every prediction leaves a receipt.

MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.