THE BOARD

The Numbers Behind the Noise.

MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.

SIGNATURE MODEL

Numbers Before Narratives.

MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

MMH POWER INDEX

Team Ratings

2025-26 season • 366 Division I teams

TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET

#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference

81.7122.295.2+26.9

#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference

80.9122.397+25.2

#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference

79.9120.396.9+23.4

#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference

79.7120.999.3+21.7

#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference

76.5125103.3+21.7

#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference

76.4119.794+25.7

#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference

76118.495.9+22.5

#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference

75.9119.396+23.3

#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference

73.2124.8107.8+17

#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference

70.7116.797.4+19.3

#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference

70.3114.497.6+16.8

#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference

70.2116.398.4+17.9

#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference

69.8117101.5+15.5

#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference

69.5121.6111.2+10.4

#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference

69.3122.2109.8+12.4

#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference

69123.898.3+25.5

#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference

68.9119101.8+17.2

#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference

68.9120.9105.7+15.2

#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference

68.8117.3101.6+15.7

#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference

68.6115.8102.1+13.6

#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference

67.1118.6102.2+16.5

#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference

67114.498.3+16.1

#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference

66.7120.897.6+23.2

#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference

66.7117.498.3+19.1

#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference

65.8122.7103.3+19.4

MMH MATCHUPS

Games

← Previous DayJanuary 11, 2026Next Day →

MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD

Texas Tech at Colorado • FINAL23-11 • 17-16Final Score: Texas Tech 73-71 Colorado

Texas Tech 72.1%Colorado 27.9%

83-78160.2Texas Tech -5.2

Maryland at UCLA • FINAL12-20 • 24-12Final Score: Maryland 55-67 UCLA

UCLA 93.2%Maryland 6.8%

65-83148.0UCLA -17.2

Texas at Alabama • FINAL21-15 • 24-10Final Score: Texas 92-88 Alabama

Alabama 80.0%Texas 20.0%

82-91172.4Alabama -9.0

Mississippi State at Kentucky • FINAL13-19 • 22-14Final Score: Mississippi State 68-92 Kentucky

Kentucky 93.5%Mississippi State 6.5%

72-89160.9Kentucky -17.7

BYU at Utah • FINAL23-12 • 10-22Final Score: BYU 89-84 Utah

BYU 84.8%Utah 15.2%

85-75159.7BYU -10.3

Illinois at Iowa • FINAL28-9 • 24-13Final Score: Illinois 75-69 Iowa

Illinois 70.3%Iowa 29.7%

76-71147.4Illinois -4.5

Southern at Florida A&M • FINAL17-17 • 14-16Final Score: Southern 59-67 Florida A&M

Southern 51.5%Florida A&M 48.5%

77-77153.1Southern -0.1

San Diego at Pacific • FINAL12-21 • 18-15Final Score: San Diego 70-77 Pacific

Pacific 83.2%San Diego 16.8%

68-80148.2Pacific -11.4

Cal State Bakersfield at Long Beach State • FINAL8-24 • 10-22Final Score: Cal State Bakersfield 75-81 Long Beach State

Long Beach State 81.8%Cal State Bakersfield 18.2%

73-84157.1Long Beach State -10.6

Cal State Northridge at Cal State Fullerton • FINAL20-14 • 18-16Final Score: Cal State Northridge 79-86 Cal State Fullerton

Cal State Fullerton 60.9%Cal State Northridge 39.1%

82-86168.2Cal State Fullerton -3.4

Incarnate Word at Lamar • FINAL12-19 • 12-19Final Score: Incarnate Word 51-63 Lamar

Lamar 61.1%Incarnate Word 38.9%

70-74144.0Lamar -4.3

Campbell at Elon • FINAL15-18 • 14-18Final Score: Campbell 82-83 Elon

Campbell 52.9%Elon 47.1%

79-81159.9Elon -1.2

San Francisco at Pepperdine • FINAL17-16 • 9-23Final Score: San Francisco 80-60 Pepperdine

San Francisco 69.4%Pepperdine 30.6%

78-73151.7San Francisco -4.7

Oregon State at Portland • FINAL17-16 • 15-19Final Score: Oregon State 76-82 Portland

Oregon State 53.4%Portland 46.6%

75-76150.9Portland -0.6

San José State at Grand Canyon • FINAL9-24 • 20-12Final Score: San José State 58-76 Grand Canyon

Grand Canyon 92.4%San José State 7.6%

66-83148.9Grand Canyon -17.6

St. Thomas-Minnesota at Oral Roberts • FINAL24-10 • 10-23Final Score: St. Thomas-Minnesota 82-71 Oral Roberts

St. Thomas-Minnesota 81.7%Oral Roberts 18.3%

82-73154.6St. Thomas-Minnesota -9.2

North Dakota at Kansas City • FINAL18-17 • 4-27Final Score: North Dakota 81-79 Kansas City

North Dakota 81.7%Kansas City 18.3%

83-74156.5North Dakota -9.0

UC San Diego at UC Riverside • FINAL23-11 • 10-22Final Score: UC San Diego 69-66 UC Riverside

UC San Diego 70.1%UC Riverside 29.9%

78-72149.9UC San Diego -5.2

Weber State at Northern Colorado • FINAL16-16 • 20-12Final Score: Weber State 76-71 Northern Colorado

Northern Colorado 71.1%Weber State 28.9%

78-85162.9Northern Colorado -6.4

Idaho State at Northern Arizona • FINAL13-20 • 10-22Final Score: Idaho State 81-79 Northern Arizona

Idaho State 62.1%Northern Arizona 37.9%

76-75151.0Idaho State -1.8

Southern Utah at California Baptist • FINAL10-22 • 25-9Final Score: Southern Utah 55-58 California Baptist

California Baptist 92.3%Southern Utah 7.7%

66-83149.4California Baptist -16.4

Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State • FINAL17-15 • 16-16Final Score: Middle Tennessee 59-55 New Mexico State

New Mexico State 59.0%Middle Tennessee 41.0%

73-76149.0New Mexico State -3.6

UT Martin at Southern Indiana • FINAL22-11 • 7-22Final Score: UT Martin 73-56 Southern Indiana

UT Martin 70.8%Southern Indiana 29.2%

70-64133.4UT Martin -5.6

Utah State at Boise State • FINAL29-7 • 20-12Final Score: Utah State 93-68 Boise State

Utah State 54.5%Boise State 45.5%

78-77154.8Utah State -1.0

Wyoming at Nevada • FINAL18-15 • 24-13Final Score: Wyoming 83-92 Nevada

Nevada 71.5%Wyoming 28.5%

72-78150.5Nevada -6.3

Loyola Marymount at Santa Clara • FINAL15-17 • 26-9Final Score: Loyola Marymount 72-103 Santa Clara

Santa Clara 89.8%Loyola Marymount 10.2%

69-84153.3Santa Clara -14.6

Fresno State at San Diego State • FINAL13-19 • 22-10Final Score: Fresno State 52-71 San Diego State

San Diego State 87.6%Fresno State 12.4%

67-81148.3San Diego State -13.4

UC Irvine at Hawai'i • FINAL23-12 • 24-9Final Score: UC Irvine 66-67 Hawai'i

Hawai'i 51.6%UC Irvine 48.4%

74-76149.7Hawai'i -2.0

IU Indianapolis at Milwaukee • FINAL7-25 • 12-20Final Score: IU Indianapolis 83-95 Milwaukee

Milwaukee 76.3%IU Indianapolis 23.7%

81-89169.2Milwaukee -7.9

Saint Joseph's at Richmond • FINAL24-12 • 15-17Final Score: Saint Joseph's 67-65 Richmond

Richmond 56.3%Saint Joseph's 43.7%

73-75148.3Richmond -2.7

Memphis at Florida Atlantic • FINAL13-19 • 18-15Final Score: Memphis 78-89 Florida Atlantic

Florida Atlantic 71.8%Memphis 28.2%

74-81155.0Florida Atlantic -7.2

Cleveland State at Detroit Mercy • FINAL11-22 • 17-15Final Score: Cleveland State 84-94 Detroit Mercy

Detroit Mercy 85.0%Cleveland State 15.0%

76-88164.5Detroit Mercy -12.0

Canisius at Iona • FINAL10-21 • 18-14Final Score: Canisius 48-74 Iona

Iona 87.6%Canisius 12.4%

63-76139.7Iona -13.0

Charlotte at Rice • FINAL17-17 • 13-18Final Score: Charlotte 74-73 Rice

Rice 51.0%Charlotte 49.0%

74-76149.8Rice -1.9

UAB at East Carolina • FINAL20-12 • 11-20Final Score: UAB 87-85 East Carolina

UAB 71.0%East Carolina 29.0%

79-74153.2UAB -5.7

Merrimack at Saint Peter's • FINAL23-11 • 17-12Final Score: Merrimack 63-76 Saint Peter's

Merrimack 54.5%Saint Peter's 45.5%

68-68135.9Saint Peter's -0.8

Quinnipiac at Sacred Heart • FINAL19-13 • 14-19Final Score: Quinnipiac 70-60 Sacred Heart

Quinnipiac 63.1%Sacred Heart 36.9%

77-74151.5Quinnipiac -2.5

Northern Kentucky at Green Bay • FINAL20-14 • 18-15Final Score: Northern Kentucky 78-80 Green Bay

Green Bay 54.1%Northern Kentucky 45.9%

79-80158.5Green Bay -0.7

Purdue Fort Wayne at Robert Morris • FINAL17-15 • 22-11Final Score: Purdue Fort Wayne 79-74 Robert Morris

Robert Morris 87.5%Purdue Fort Wayne 12.5%

71-84154.9Robert Morris -12.4

Siena at Mount St. Mary's • FINAL23-12 • 15-17Final Score: Siena 67-50 Mount St. Mary's

Siena 67.7%Mount St. Mary's 32.3%

70-66136.1Siena -3.8

Marist at Rider • FINAL19-12 • 4-25Final Score: Marist 71-49 Rider

Marist 87.3%Rider 12.7%

74-61135.2Marist -12.5

Niagara at Manhattan • FINAL8-22 • 12-20Final Score: Niagara 70-79 Manhattan

Manhattan 71.1%Niagara 28.9%

69-75144.4Manhattan -6.2

North Texas at Wichita State • FINAL19-14 • 24-12Final Score: North Texas 67-78 Wichita State

Wichita State 85.0%North Texas 15.0%

66-78144.1Wichita State -11.2

Wright State at Oakland • FINAL23-12 • 16-16Final Score: Wright State 94-84 Oakland

Oakland 50.2%Wright State 49.8%

82-82163.5Oakland -0.3

Cincinnati at UCF • FINAL18-15 • 21-12Final Score: Cincinnati 72-73 UCF

UCF 50.5%Cincinnati 49.5%

75-76151.6UCF -0.9

Northwestern at Rutgers • FINAL15-19 • 13-20Final Score: Northwestern 75-77 Rutgers

Northwestern 63.4%Rutgers 36.6%

75-72146.5Northwestern -2.8

Ohio State at Washington • FINAL21-13 • 16-17Final Score: Ohio State 74-81 Washington

Ohio State 57.8%Washington 42.2%

77-77153.7Ohio State -0.5

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

HOW TO READ IT

One projection. One permanent result.

MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.

ACCOUNTABILITY

Every prediction leaves a receipt.

MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.