THE BOARD

The Numbers Behind the Noise.

MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.

SIGNATURE MODEL

Numbers Before Narratives.

MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

MMH POWER INDEX

Team Ratings

2025-26 season • 366 Division I teams

TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET

#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference

81.7122.295.2+26.9

#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference

80.9122.397+25.2

#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference

79.9120.396.9+23.4

#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference

79.7120.999.3+21.7

#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference

76.5125103.3+21.7

#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference

76.4119.794+25.7

#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference

76118.495.9+22.5

#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference

75.9119.396+23.3

#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference

73.2124.8107.8+17

#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference

70.7116.797.4+19.3

#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference

70.3114.497.6+16.8

#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference

70.2116.398.4+17.9

#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference

69.8117101.5+15.5

#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference

69.5121.6111.2+10.4

#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference

69.3122.2109.8+12.4

#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference

69123.898.3+25.5

#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference

68.9119101.8+17.2

#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference

68.9120.9105.7+15.2

#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference

68.8117.3101.6+15.7

#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference

68.6115.8102.1+13.6

#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference

67.1118.6102.2+16.5

#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference

67114.498.3+16.1

#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference

66.7120.897.6+23.2

#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference

66.7117.498.3+19.1

#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference

65.8122.7103.3+19.4

MMH MATCHUPS

Games

← Previous DayFebruary 8, 2026Next Day →

MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD

Illinois at Michigan State • FINAL28-9 • 27-8Final Score: Illinois 82-85 Michigan State

Illinois 55.9%Michigan State 44.1%

76-75151.3Illinois -0.4

Florida at Texas A&M • FINAL27-8 • 20-12Final Score: Florida 86-67 Texas A&M

Florida 87.1%Texas A&M 12.9%

86-75160.6Florida -10.7

Tennessee at Kentucky • FINAL25-12 • 22-14Final Score: Tennessee 71-74 Kentucky

Tennessee 50.4%Kentucky 49.6%

77-77154.0Kentucky -0.6

Washington at UCLA • FINAL16-17 • 24-12Final Score: Washington 73-77 UCLA

UCLA 76.3%Washington 23.7%

72-80151.3UCLA -7.7

Houston at BYU • FINAL29-7 • 23-12Final Score: Houston 77-66 BYU

Houston 69.8%BYU 30.2%

77-73151.0Houston -4.0

Michigan at Ohio State • FINAL36-3 • 21-13Final Score: Michigan 82-61 Ohio State

Michigan 78.9%Ohio State 21.1%

83-75158.0Michigan -8.4

Texas Tech at West Virginia • FINAL23-11 • 21-14Final Score: Texas Tech 70-63 West Virginia

Texas Tech 62.9%West Virginia 37.1%

74-72145.4Texas Tech -1.9

San José State at Colorado State • FINAL9-24 • 21-13Final Score: San José State 57-65 Colorado State

Colorado State 88.1%San José State 11.9%

68-82150.3Colorado State -14.0

Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State • FINAL21-14 • 15-17Final Score: Kennesaw State 58-77 Jacksonville State

Jacksonville State 50.2%Kennesaw State 49.8%

75-76151.9Jacksonville State -1.0

Radford at High Point • FINAL16-16 • 31-5Final Score: Radford 77-86 High Point

High Point 94.6%Radford 5.4%

73-93165.1High Point -19.9

Merrimack at Rider • FINAL23-11 • 4-25Final Score: Merrimack 73-47 Rider

Merrimack 90.3%Rider 9.7%

74-62136.1Merrimack -12.9

Cal State Bakersfield at Cal State Fullerton • FINAL8-24 • 18-16Final Score: Cal State Bakersfield 66-82 Cal State Fullerton

Cal State Fullerton 91.9%Cal State Bakersfield 8.1%

74-90164.5Cal State Fullerton -16.1

Purdue Fort Wayne at Wright State • FINAL17-15 • 23-12Final Score: Purdue Fort Wayne 68-73 Wright State

Wright State 88.4%Purdue Fort Wayne 11.6%

72-86157.9Wright State -13.2

Mount St. Mary's at Iona • FINAL15-17 • 18-14Final Score: Mount St. Mary's 83-76 Iona

Iona 72.9%Mount St. Mary's 27.1%

68-75142.7Iona -7.2

Marist at Fairfield • FINAL19-12 • 21-13Final Score: Marist 60-63 Fairfield

Fairfield 60.1%Marist 39.9%

68-71139.1Fairfield -2.6

UMass Lowell at UAlbany • FINAL15-18 • 11-20Final Score: UMass Lowell 89-79 UAlbany

UAlbany 57.4%UMass Lowell 42.6%

71-75146.1UAlbany -3.4

Utah State at Wyoming • FINAL29-7 • 18-15Final Score: Utah State 85-83 Wyoming

Utah State 63.7%Wyoming 36.3%

78-75153.7Utah State -3.2

Seattle U at Portland • FINAL21-14 • 15-19Final Score: Seattle U 53-54 Portland

Seattle U 61.3%Portland 38.7%

75-72147.1Seattle U -3.1

Pacific at Pepperdine • FINAL18-15 • 9-23Final Score: Pacific 92-59 Pepperdine

Pacific 68.2%Pepperdine 31.8%

76-71147.8Pacific -5.1

Georgia Tech at Stanford • FINAL11-20 • 20-13Final Score: Georgia Tech 72-95 Stanford

Stanford 91.6%Georgia Tech 8.4%

69-83152.2Stanford -14.7

Clemson at California • FINAL24-10 • 22-12Final Score: Clemson 77-55 California

California 53.3%Clemson 46.7%

71-73144.2California -1.7

San Diego State at Air Force • FINAL22-10 • 3-29Final Score: San Diego State 88-54 Air Force

San Diego State 97.4%Air Force 2.6%

84-61145.7San Diego State -23.0

Oral Roberts at St. Thomas-Minnesota • FINAL10-23 • 24-10Final Score: Oral Roberts 75-92 St. Thomas-Minnesota

St. Thomas-Minnesota 92.5%Oral Roberts 7.5%

69-86154.6St. Thomas-Minnesota -17.4

Eastern Washington at Montana State • FINAL14-19 • 18-14Final Score: Eastern Washington 72-71 Montana State

Montana State 65.8%Eastern Washington 34.2%

75-81156.0Montana State -6.7

Abilene Christian at California Baptist • FINAL14-19 • 25-9Final Score: Abilene Christian 63-65 California Baptist

California Baptist 90.7%Abilene Christian 9.3%

63-78141.4California Baptist -14.9

Tarleton State at Southern Utah • FINAL14-18 • 10-22Final Score: Tarleton State 62-59 Southern Utah

Southern Utah 51.6%Tarleton State 48.4%

77-77154.3Southern Utah -0.4

San Diego at Loyola Marymount • FINAL12-21 • 15-17Final Score: San Diego 63-83 Loyola Marymount

Loyola Marymount 83.7%San Diego 16.3%

70-81151.1Loyola Marymount -11.2

UC Irvine at UC Santa Barbara • FINAL23-12 • 18-14Final Score: UC Irvine 79-84 UC Santa Barbara

UC Irvine 56.7%UC Santa Barbara 43.3%

75-74149.8UC Irvine -1.1

Northern Arizona at Weber State • FINAL10-22 • 16-16Final Score: Northern Arizona 53-72 Weber State

Weber State 88.0%Northern Arizona 12.0%

71-85156.0Weber State -13.7

New Mexico State at UTEP • FINAL16-16 • 11-20Final Score: New Mexico State 88-91 UTEP

New Mexico State 56.2%UTEP 43.8%

73-72145.0New Mexico State -1.2

Arizona State at Colorado • FINAL17-16 • 17-16Final Score: Arizona State 70-78 Colorado

Colorado 66.8%Arizona State 33.2%

78-83161.1Colorado -5.4

Fresno State at Nevada • FINAL13-19 • 24-13Final Score: Fresno State 59-69 Nevada

Nevada 87.3%Fresno State 12.7%

68-80147.9Nevada -12.0

Boise State at New Mexico • FINAL20-12 • 26-11Final Score: Boise State 91-90 New Mexico

New Mexico 72.7%Boise State 27.3%

73-81154.3New Mexico -8.0

Portland State at Sacramento State • FINAL20-11 • 10-21Final Score: Portland State 74-73 Sacramento State

Portland State 57.3%Sacramento State 42.7%

79-77156.0Portland State -2.6

San Francisco at Saint Mary's • FINAL17-16 • 27-6Final Score: San Francisco 54-79 Saint Mary's

Saint Mary's 94.3%San Francisco 5.7%

64-82145.6Saint Mary's -18.3

UC San Diego at Hawai'i • FINAL23-11 • 24-9Final Score: UC San Diego 67-72 Hawai'i

Hawai'i 65.0%UC San Diego 35.0%

72-78149.7Hawai'i -5.8

Tulsa at South Florida • FINAL30-8 • 25-9Final Score: Tulsa 74-80 South Florida

South Florida 72.2%Tulsa 27.8%

79-86165.6South Florida -6.7

USC at Penn State • FINAL18-14 • 12-20Final Score: USC 77-75 Penn State

USC 54.0%Penn State 46.0%

80-79158.1USC -1.0

UNC Greensboro at Furman • FINAL15-19 • 22-13Final Score: UNC Greensboro 67-64 Furman

Furman 78.8%UNC Greensboro 21.2%

73-83155.8Furman -10.4

Wichita State at Tulane • FINAL24-12 • 18-15Final Score: Wichita State 75-61 Tulane

Wichita State 83.2%Tulane 16.8%

80-70150.0Wichita State -9.1

Charlotte at Memphis • FINAL17-17 • 13-19Final Score: Charlotte 54-77 Memphis

Memphis 58.5%Charlotte 41.5%

74-78152.0Memphis -3.7

UCF at Cincinnati • FINAL21-12 • 18-15Final Score: UCF 72-92 Cincinnati

Cincinnati 73.1%UCF 26.9%

72-79151.6Cincinnati -7.3

Maryland at Minnesota • FINAL12-20 • 15-18Final Score: Maryland 67-62 Minnesota

Minnesota 77.2%Maryland 22.8%

66-75141.6Minnesota -9.1

Rice at UAB • FINAL13-18 • 20-12Final Score: Rice 65-71 UAB

UAB 86.1%Rice 13.9%

70-83153.0UAB -12.2

Northwestern at Iowa • FINAL15-19 • 24-13Final Score: Northwestern 70-76 Iowa

Iowa 81.6%Northwestern 18.4%

66-77143.4Iowa -10.6

Ohio at Old Dominion • FINAL15-17 • 12-21Final Score: Ohio 72-78 Old Dominion

Old Dominion 60.3%Ohio 39.7%

78-81158.5Old Dominion -3.4

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

HOW TO READ IT

One projection. One permanent result.

MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.

ACCOUNTABILITY

Every prediction leaves a receipt.

MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.