THE BOARD

The Numbers Behind the Noise.

MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.

SIGNATURE MODEL

Numbers Before Narratives.

MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

MMH POWER INDEX

Team Ratings

2025-26 season • 366 Division I teams

TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET

#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference

81.7122.295.2+26.9

#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference

80.9122.397+25.2

#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference

79.9120.396.9+23.4

#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference

79.7120.999.3+21.7

#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference

76.5125103.3+21.7

#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference

76.4119.794+25.7

#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference

76118.495.9+22.5

#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference

75.9119.396+23.3

#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference

73.2124.8107.8+17

#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference

70.7116.797.4+19.3

#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference

70.3114.497.6+16.8

#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference

70.2116.398.4+17.9

#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference

69.8117101.5+15.5

#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference

69.5121.6111.2+10.4

#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference

69.3122.2109.8+12.4

#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference

69123.898.3+25.5

#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference

68.9119101.8+17.2

#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference

68.9120.9105.7+15.2

#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference

68.8117.3101.6+15.7

#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference

68.6115.8102.1+13.6

#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference

67.1118.6102.2+16.5

#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference

67114.498.3+16.1

#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference

66.7120.897.6+23.2

#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference

66.7117.498.3+19.1

#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference

65.8122.7103.3+19.4

MMH MATCHUPS

Games

← Previous DayFebruary 1, 2026Next Day →

MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD

UConn at Creighton • FINAL34-5 • 15-18Final Score: UConn 85-58 Creighton

UConn 84.2%Creighton 15.8%

79-69147.4UConn -9.7

Auburn at Tennessee • FINAL21-16 • 25-12Final Score: Auburn 69-77 Tennessee

Tennessee 72.7%Auburn 27.3%

75-83158.3Tennessee -8.3

Saint Mary's at Gonzaga • FINAL27-6 • 31-4Final Score: Saint Mary's 65-73 Gonzaga

Gonzaga 75.8%Saint Mary's 24.2%

69-78147.3Gonzaga -8.9

Purdue at Maryland • FINAL30-9 • 12-20Final Score: Purdue 93-63 Maryland

Purdue 93.9%Maryland 6.1%

83-67150.6Purdue -15.9

Alabama at Florida • FINAL24-10 • 27-8Final Score: Alabama 77-100 Florida

Florida 83.8%Alabama 16.2%

80-92172.1Florida -11.8

Iowa State at Kansas State • FINAL28-8 • 12-20Final Score: Iowa State 95-61 Kansas State

Iowa State 93.7%Kansas State 6.3%

87-71157.3Iowa State -16.2

Illinois at Nebraska • FINAL28-9 • 28-7Final Score: Illinois 78-69 Nebraska

Illinois 63.4%Nebraska 36.6%

75-74148.9Illinois -1.9

Samford at Western Carolina • FINAL18-14 • 15-16Final Score: Samford 88-74 Western Carolina

Western Carolina 59.5%Samford 40.5%

78-81158.2Western Carolina -3.2

Coastal Carolina at UL Monroe • FINAL19-13 • 4-28Final Score: Coastal Carolina 83-79 UL Monroe

Coastal Carolina 77.9%UL Monroe 22.1%

81-73153.5Coastal Carolina -8.2

Georgia State at South Alabama • FINAL10-22 • 21-12Final Score: Georgia State 67-69 South Alabama

South Alabama 87.0%Georgia State 13.0%

66-79145.5South Alabama -12.6

UIC at Southern Illinois • FINAL19-16 • 16-16Final Score: UIC 68-66 Southern Illinois

Southern Illinois 56.8%UIC 43.2%

71-74145.0Southern Illinois -2.8

Rutgers at USC • FINAL13-20 • 18-14Final Score: Rutgers 75-78 USC

USC 68.5%Rutgers 31.5%

73-80153.5USC -7.1

Bowling Green at Central Michigan • FINAL18-14 • 10-21Final Score: Bowling Green 59-62 Central Michigan

Bowling Green 66.4%Central Michigan 33.6%

80-74154.0Bowling Green -5.4

Harvard at Yale • FINAL17-12 • 23-7Final Score: Harvard 67-65 Yale

Yale 87.4%Harvard 12.6%

65-77141.6Yale -12.5

New Haven at Saint Francis • FINAL14-17 • 7-24Final Score: New Haven 81-69 Saint Francis

New Haven 55.6%Saint Francis 44.4%

72-70141.6New Haven -1.6

UMBC at UAlbany • FINAL24-8 • 11-20Final Score: UMBC 68-65 UAlbany

UMBC 80.3%UAlbany 19.7%

73-66138.5UMBC -7.4

McNeese at Lamar • FINAL27-6 • 12-19Final Score: McNeese 64-63 Lamar

McNeese 88.2%Lamar 11.8%

76-65140.5McNeese -10.8

Murray State at Belmont • FINAL20-13 • 26-6Final Score: Murray State 86-103 Belmont

Belmont 80.6%Murray State 19.4%

77-88164.8Belmont -10.3

South Florida at Temple • FINAL25-9 • 16-16Final Score: South Florida 78-79 Temple

South Florida 81.5%Temple 18.5%

83-74156.9South Florida -8.5

UAB at North Texas • FINAL20-12 • 19-14Final Score: UAB 72-68 North Texas

UAB 50.4%North Texas 49.6%

73-74146.5North Texas -1.0

Washington at Northwestern • FINAL16-17 • 15-19Final Score: Washington 76-62 Northwestern

Northwestern 57.9%Washington 42.1%

74-76149.5Northwestern -2.4

Cal Poly at UC Riverside • FINAL14-19 • 10-22Final Score: Cal Poly 94-87 UC Riverside

Cal Poly 52.0%UC Riverside 48.0%

81-82163.0UC Riverside -0.8

UC San Diego at Cal State Northridge • FINAL23-11 • 20-14Final Score: UC San Diego 64-81 Cal State Northridge

Cal State Northridge 53.3%UC San Diego 46.7%

78-79156.5Cal State Northridge -1.3

Idaho at Northern Arizona • FINAL21-15 • 10-22Final Score: Idaho 79-62 Northern Arizona

Idaho 78.7%Northern Arizona 21.3%

79-72151.0Idaho -7.4

SIU Edwardsville at Southern Indiana • FINAL19-13 • 7-22Final Score: SIU Edwardsville 58-46 Southern Indiana

SIU Edwardsville 68.2%Southern Indiana 31.8%

70-65135.1SIU Edwardsville -4.5

Santa Clara at Loyola Marymount • FINAL26-9 • 15-17Final Score: Santa Clara 104-73 Loyola Marymount

Santa Clara 76.2%Loyola Marymount 23.8%

80-73153.3Santa Clara -6.4

Cal State Fullerton at UC Santa Barbara • FINAL18-16 • 18-14Final Score: Cal State Fullerton 69-83 UC Santa Barbara

UC Santa Barbara 67.5%Cal State Fullerton 32.5%

78-84161.4UC Santa Barbara -6.2

Delaware at UTEP • FINAL10-21 • 11-20Final Score: Delaware 55-70 UTEP

UTEP 73.7%Delaware 26.3%

67-75141.7UTEP -7.4

Colorado State at Wyoming • FINAL21-13 • 18-15Final Score: Colorado State 57-68 Wyoming

Wyoming 64.3%Colorado State 35.7%

73-77150.1Wyoming -4.8

New Mexico at San José State • FINAL26-11 • 9-24Final Score: New Mexico 90-80 San José State

New Mexico 87.1%San José State 12.9%

83-71153.7New Mexico -12.5

Pacific at San Francisco • FINAL18-15 • 17-16Final Score: Pacific 82-87 San Francisco

San Francisco 63.8%Pacific 36.2%

71-75145.4San Francisco -3.7

Montana at Sacramento State • FINAL18-16 • 10-21Final Score: Montana 79-86 Sacramento State

Sacramento State 56.0%Montana 44.0%

79-80159.2Sacramento State -0.9

Louisiana Tech at Sam Houston • FINAL20-14 • 22-12Final Score: Louisiana Tech 67-83 Sam Houston

Sam Houston 76.0%Louisiana Tech 24.0%

70-77147.0Sam Houston -7.9

Sacred Heart at Merrimack • FINAL14-19 • 23-11Final Score: Sacred Heart 58-75 Merrimack

Merrimack 86.5%Sacred Heart 13.5%

66-78143.6Merrimack -11.8

Rhode Island at Duquesne • FINAL16-16 • 18-15Final Score: Rhode Island 61-76 Duquesne

Duquesne 61.7%Rhode Island 38.3%

71-75146.6Duquesne -4.0

Siena at Canisius • FINAL23-12 • 10-21Final Score: Siena 78-63 Canisius

Siena 84.7%Canisius 15.3%

71-62133.1Siena -9.6

Chattanooga at Furman • FINAL13-19 • 22-13Final Score: Chattanooga 70-75 Furman

Furman 80.2%Chattanooga 19.8%

71-81151.5Furman -9.9

Kansas City at St. Thomas-Minnesota • FINAL4-27 • 24-10Final Score: Kansas City 64-99 St. Thomas-Minnesota

St. Thomas-Minnesota 98.7%Kansas City 1.3%

64-92156.2St. Thomas-Minnesota -28.6

Wichita State at Tulsa • FINAL24-12 • 30-8Final Score: Wichita State 83-93 Tulsa

Tulsa 66.5%Wichita State 33.5%

75-81156.6Tulsa -5.8

East Carolina at Florida Atlantic • FINAL11-20 • 18-15Final Score: East Carolina 76-75 Florida Atlantic

Florida Atlantic 79.0%East Carolina 21.0%

71-82153.2Florida Atlantic -10.8

TCU at Colorado • FINAL23-12 • 17-16Final Score: TCU 61-87 Colorado

TCU 56.7%Colorado 43.3%

80-78157.8TCU -1.2

Minnesota at Penn State • FINAL15-18 • 12-20Final Score: Minnesota 75-77 Penn State

Minnesota 60.0%Penn State 40.0%

74-72146.3Minnesota -2.0

Saint Peter's at Rider • FINAL17-12 • 4-25Final Score: Saint Peter's 78-81 Rider

Saint Peter's 82.4%Rider 17.6%

74-65138.7Saint Peter's -9.6

Quinnipiac at Fairfield • FINAL19-13 • 21-13Final Score: Quinnipiac 72-65 Fairfield

Fairfield 60.1%Quinnipiac 39.9%

72-76147.7Fairfield -3.3

Wright State at Green Bay • FINAL23-12 • 18-15Final Score: Wright State 83-75 Green Bay

Wright State 54.8%Green Bay 45.2%

78-77154.6Wright State -1.2

Marist at Niagara • FINAL19-12 • 8-22Final Score: Marist 58-46 Niagara

Marist 76.6%Niagara 23.4%

70-63132.7Marist -7.6

Manhattan at Mount St. Mary's • FINAL12-20 • 15-17Final Score: Manhattan 65-72 Mount St. Mary's

Mount St. Mary's 70.6%Manhattan 29.4%

70-77146.4Mount St. Mary's -6.9

Tulane at Memphis • FINAL18-15 • 13-19Final Score: Tulane 78-76 Memphis

Memphis 71.1%Tulane 28.9%

72-79151.8Memphis -6.9

Cleveland State at Milwaukee • FINAL11-22 • 12-20Final Score: Cleveland State 90-88 Milwaukee

Milwaukee 79.9%Cleveland State 20.1%

78-87165.4Milwaukee -9.4

Northern Kentucky at Oakland • FINAL20-14 • 16-16Final Score: Northern Kentucky 65-76 Oakland

Oakland 59.0%Northern Kentucky 41.0%

83-85167.5Oakland -2.2

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

HOW TO READ IT

One projection. One permanent result.

MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.

ACCOUNTABILITY

Every prediction leaves a receipt.

MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.