#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference
81.7122.295.2+26.9THE BOARD
The Numbers Behind the Noise.
MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.
SIGNATURE MODEL
Numbers Before Narratives.
MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.
THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
MMH POWER INDEX
2025-26 season • 366 Division I teamsTeam Ratings
TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET
#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference
80.9122.397+25.2#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference
79.9120.396.9+23.4#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference
79.7120.999.3+21.7#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference
76.5125103.3+21.7#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference
76.4119.794+25.7#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference
76118.495.9+22.5#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference
75.9119.396+23.3#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference
73.2124.8107.8+17#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference
70.7116.797.4+19.3#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference
70.3114.497.6+16.8#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference
70.2116.398.4+17.9#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference
69.8117101.5+15.5#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference
69.5121.6111.2+10.4#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference
69.3122.2109.8+12.4#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference
69123.898.3+25.5#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference
68.9119101.8+17.2#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference
68.9120.9105.7+15.2#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference
68.8117.3101.6+15.7#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference
68.6115.8102.1+13.6#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference
67.1118.6102.2+16.5#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference
67114.498.3+16.1#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference
66.7120.897.6+23.2#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference
66.7117.498.3+19.1#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference
65.8122.7103.3+19.4MMH MATCHUPS
Games
MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD
Purdue at Wisconsin • FINAL30-9 • 24-11Final Score: Purdue 89-73 Wisconsin
Purdue 61.3%Wisconsin 38.7%
80-79159.0Purdue -1.5Illinois at Penn State • FINAL28-9 • 12-20Final Score: Illinois 73-65 Penn State
Illinois 96.4%Penn State 3.6%
87-68155.1Illinois -19.9Florida at Missouri • FINAL27-8 • 20-13Final Score: Florida 74-76 Missouri
Florida 88.1%Missouri 11.9%
86-74160.3Florida -11.6Creighton at Seton Hall • FINAL15-18 • 21-12Final Score: Creighton 54-56 Seton Hall
Seton Hall 77.4%Creighton 22.6%
67-76143.4Seton Hall -9.2Marquette at UConn • FINAL12-20 • 34-5Final Score: Marquette 57-73 UConn
UConn 92.4%Marquette 7.6%
65-82147.7UConn -17.2Nevada at Fresno State • FINAL24-13 • 13-19Final Score: Nevada 66-65 Fresno State
Nevada 71.2%Fresno State 28.8%
76-72147.9Nevada -3.8Denver at St. Thomas-Minnesota • FINAL15-17 • 24-10Final Score: Denver 88-92 St. Thomas-Minnesota
St. Thomas-Minnesota 84.6%Denver 15.4%
76-88163.9St. Thomas-Minnesota -12.7Hampton at UNC Wilmington • FINAL13-19 • 27-7Final Score: Hampton 45-49 UNC Wilmington
UNC Wilmington 90.8%Hampton 9.2%
64-79142.7UNC Wilmington -14.9UC Irvine at Cal State Fullerton • FINAL23-12 • 18-16Final Score: UC Irvine 86-64 Cal State Fullerton
UC Irvine 62.1%Cal State Fullerton 37.9%
81-78158.5UC Irvine -3.3Wyoming at New Mexico • FINAL18-15 • 26-11Final Score: Wyoming 58-78 New Mexico
New Mexico 79.5%Wyoming 20.5%
72-82153.3New Mexico -10.1Colorado State at Grand Canyon • FINAL21-13 • 20-12Final Score: Colorado State 70-60 Grand Canyon
Grand Canyon 73.1%Colorado State 26.9%
70-77146.8Grand Canyon -7.7Kansas City at Omaha • FINAL4-27 • 16-17Final Score: Kansas City 73-66 Omaha
Omaha 93.1%Kansas City 6.9%
69-87155.7Omaha -17.7Northern Arizona at Montana State • FINAL10-22 • 18-14Final Score: Northern Arizona 68-77 Montana State
Montana State 91.4%Northern Arizona 8.6%
67-83150.2Montana State -16.1UT Arlington at Southern Utah • FINAL18-14 • 10-22Final Score: UT Arlington 86-77 Southern Utah
UT Arlington 62.1%Southern Utah 37.9%
75-72147.1UT Arlington -3.0Cal Poly at Long Beach State • FINAL14-19 • 10-22Final Score: Cal Poly 66-74 Long Beach State
Cal Poly 52.3%Long Beach State 47.7%
82-83164.3Long Beach State -1.2Sacramento State at Weber State • FINAL10-21 • 16-16Final Score: Sacramento State 82-95 Weber State
Weber State 78.8%Sacramento State 21.2%
77-87163.4Weber State -10.1Boise State at San Diego State • FINAL20-12 • 22-10Final Score: Boise State 107-110 San Diego State
San Diego State 64.0%Boise State 36.0%
73-79152.1San Diego State -5.5Hawai'i at UC San Diego • FINAL24-9 • 23-11Final Score: Hawai'i 73-83 UC San Diego
UC San Diego 59.8%Hawai'i 40.2%
74-76149.7UC San Diego -2.4Indiana State at Drake • FINAL11-21 • 14-20Final Score: Indiana State 72-74 Drake
Drake 67.5%Indiana State 32.5%
73-78150.9Drake -5.4Bradley at Murray State • FINAL21-13 • 20-13Final Score: Bradley 66-86 Murray State
Murray State 60.3%Bradley 39.7%
79-82160.8Murray State -3.6Manhattan at Merrimack • FINAL12-20 • 23-11Final Score: Manhattan 66-73 Merrimack
Merrimack 89.2%Manhattan 10.8%
65-79144.3Merrimack -14.0Stonehill at Wagner • FINAL12-21 • 14-17Final Score: Stonehill 69-60 Wagner
Wagner 74.4%Stonehill 25.6%
66-73138.3Wagner -7.1Richmond at Fordham • FINAL15-17 • 17-15Final Score: Richmond 83-75 Fordham
Fordham 62.7%Richmond 37.3%
69-74143.1Fordham -4.8Sacred Heart at Canisius • FINAL14-19 • 10-21Final Score: Sacred Heart 78-82 Canisius
Sacred Heart 58.6%Canisius 41.4%
72-71142.6Sacred Heart -1.2Florida Atlantic at Tulane • FINAL18-15 • 18-15Final Score: Florida Atlantic 66-69 Tulane
Florida Atlantic 57.5%Tulane 42.5%
77-75152.5Florida Atlantic -1.9UAB at South Florida • FINAL20-12 • 25-9Final Score: UAB 109-106 South Florida
South Florida 86.2%UAB 13.8%
75-87162.0South Florida -12.5New Haven at Central Connecticut • FINAL14-17 • 18-12Final Score: New Haven 61-72 Central Connecticut
Central Connecticut 74.6%New Haven 25.4%
65-72137.0Central Connecticut -7.8UIC at Valparaiso • FINAL19-16 • 18-15Final Score: UIC 59-66 Valparaiso
UIC 56.2%Valparaiso 43.8%
73-72145.4UIC -0.8Cleveland State at Purdue Fort Wayne • FINAL11-22 • 17-15Final Score: Cleveland State 71-74 Purdue Fort Wayne
Purdue Fort Wayne 76.7%Cleveland State 23.3%
78-87165.0Purdue Fort Wayne -9.4Wright State at IU Indianapolis • FINAL23-12 • 7-25Final Score: Wright State 81-77 IU Indianapolis
Wright State 81.5%IU Indianapolis 18.5%
88-80168.2Wright State -8.8Siena at Rider • FINAL23-12 • 4-25Final Score: Siena 74-65 Rider
Siena 90.4%Rider 9.6%
75-62136.8Siena -13.6Mount St. Mary's at Quinnipiac • FINAL15-17 • 19-13Final Score: Mount St. Mary's 69-80 Quinnipiac
Quinnipiac 80.9%Mount St. Mary's 19.1%
66-77142.9Quinnipiac -10.2Fairfield at Niagara • FINAL21-13 • 8-22Final Score: Fairfield 83-75 Niagara
Fairfield 74.7%Niagara 25.3%
73-67140.1Fairfield -6.1Iona at Marist • FINAL18-14 • 19-12Final Score: Iona 38-83 Marist
Marist 72.4%Iona 27.6%
66-74139.8Marist -7.8Long Island University at Chicago State • FINAL24-11 • 7-25Final Score: Long Island University 74-55 Chicago State
Long Island University 74.3%Chicago State 25.7%
75-69144.2Long Island University -6.6Le Moyne at Mercyhurst • FINAL15-17 • 17-17Final Score: Le Moyne 60-74 Mercyhurst
Mercyhurst 68.3%Le Moyne 31.7%
68-74141.2Mercyhurst -6.0Kennesaw State at Delaware • FINAL21-14 • 10-21Final Score: Kennesaw State 52-67 Delaware
Kennesaw State 78.1%Delaware 21.9%
80-72152.3Kennesaw State -7.6Jacksonville State at Liberty • FINAL15-17 • 26-8Final Score: Jacksonville State 69-78 Liberty
Liberty 68.7%Jacksonville State 31.3%
70-76145.5Liberty -5.8Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee • FINAL22-12 • 17-15Final Score: Sam Houston 67-68 Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee 52.7%Sam Houston 47.3%
77-78155.4Middle Tennessee -1.0Robert Morris at Oakland • FINAL22-11 • 16-16Final Score: Robert Morris 73-96 Oakland
Oakland 52.4%Robert Morris 47.6%
80-81160.5Oakland -1.1Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky • FINAL20-14 • 18-14Final Score: Louisiana Tech 61-66 Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky 75.0%Louisiana Tech 25.0%
70-76145.8Western Kentucky -6.7New Mexico State at Missouri State • FINAL16-16 • 16-18Final Score: New Mexico State 82-89 Missouri State
Missouri State 62.2%New Mexico State 37.8%
73-76149.3Missouri State -3.3Northern Iowa at Evansville • FINAL23-13 • 7-25Final Score: Northern Iowa 62-48 Evansville
Northern Iowa 94.1%Evansville 5.9%
76-60136.2Northern Iowa -16.1Tulsa at North Texas • FINAL30-8 • 19-14Final Score: Tulsa 67-72 North Texas
Tulsa 71.0%North Texas 29.0%
77-73150.0Tulsa -4.7Youngstown State at Northern Kentucky • FINAL14-17 • 20-14Final Score: Youngstown State 79-94 Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky 78.8%Youngstown State 21.2%
74-82155.9Northern Kentucky -8.9Fairleigh Dickinson at Saint Francis • FINAL11-21 • 7-24Final Score: Fairleigh Dickinson 82-85 Saint Francis
Fairleigh Dickinson 52.9%Saint Francis 47.1%
73-72145.5Fairleigh Dickinson -0.7UTEP at Florida International • FINAL11-20 • 15-17Final Score: UTEP 64-76 Florida International
Florida International 76.5%UTEP 23.5%
72-80152.1Florida International -8.7Southern Illinois at Belmont • FINAL16-16 • 26-6Final Score: Southern Illinois 68-67 Belmont
Belmont 78.8%Southern Illinois 21.2%
71-81151.8Belmont -9.5THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
HOW TO READ IT
One projection. One permanent result.
MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.
ACCOUNTABILITY
Every prediction leaves a receipt.
MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.