#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference
81.7122.295.2+26.9THE BOARD
The Numbers Behind the Noise.
MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.
SIGNATURE MODEL
Numbers Before Narratives.
MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.
THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
MMH POWER INDEX
2025-26 season • 366 Division I teamsTeam Ratings
TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET
#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference
80.9122.397+25.2#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference
79.9120.396.9+23.4#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference
79.7120.999.3+21.7#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference
76.5125103.3+21.7#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference
76.4119.794+25.7#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference
76118.495.9+22.5#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference
75.9119.396+23.3#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference
73.2124.8107.8+17#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference
70.7116.797.4+19.3#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference
70.3114.497.6+16.8#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference
70.2116.398.4+17.9#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference
69.8117101.5+15.5#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference
69.5121.6111.2+10.4#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference
69.3122.2109.8+12.4#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference
69123.898.3+25.5#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference
68.9119101.8+17.2#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference
68.9120.9105.7+15.2#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference
68.8117.3101.6+15.7#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference
68.6115.8102.1+13.6#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference
67.1118.6102.2+16.5#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference
67114.498.3+16.1#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference
66.7120.897.6+23.2#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference
66.7117.498.3+19.1#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference
65.8122.7103.3+19.4MMH MATCHUPS
Games
MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD
Alabama at Vanderbilt • FINAL24-10 • 27-9Final Score: Alabama 90-96 Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt 60.9%Alabama 39.1%
84-89173.5Vanderbilt -4.6Washington at Purdue • FINAL16-17 • 30-9Final Score: Washington 73-81 Purdue
Purdue 90.9%Washington 9.1%
70-84153.9Purdue -14.6Creighton at Villanova • FINAL15-18 • 24-9Final Score: Creighton 76-72 Villanova
Villanova 81.6%Creighton 18.4%
70-81151.4Villanova -10.4UConn at Providence • FINAL34-5 • 15-18Final Score: UConn 103-98 Providence
UConn 78.1%Providence 21.9%
83-76158.8UConn -7.7Missouri at Kentucky • FINAL20-13 • 22-14Final Score: Missouri 73-68 Kentucky
Kentucky 77.8%Missouri 22.2%
75-83157.9Kentucky -8.8Iowa State at Baylor • FINAL28-8 • 16-17Final Score: Iowa State 70-60 Baylor
Iowa State 80.0%Baylor 20.0%
82-74155.0Iowa State -8.0Arizona State at BYU • FINAL17-16 • 23-12Final Score: Arizona State 76-104 BYU
BYU 87.5%Arizona State 12.5%
73-87160.4BYU -13.8Kansas State at Arizona • FINAL12-20 • 36-3Final Score: Kansas State 76-101 Arizona
Arizona 98.5%Kansas State 1.5%
68-95162.5Arizona -27.2Arkansas at Ole Miss • FINAL28-9 • 15-20Final Score: Arkansas 94-87 Ole Miss
Arkansas 78.7%Ole Miss 21.3%
87-79166.3Arkansas -7.4Northwestern at Michigan State • FINAL15-19 • 27-8Final Score: Northwestern 66-76 Michigan State
Michigan State 89.2%Northwestern 10.8%
66-81147.2Michigan State -14.7VMI at East Tennessee State • FINAL5-26 • 23-11Final Score: VMI 67-81 East Tennessee State
East Tennessee State 97.5%VMI 2.5%
62-86148.4East Tennessee State -23.8Belmont at Northern Iowa • FINAL26-6 • 23-13Final Score: Belmont 78-65 Northern Iowa
Northern Iowa 60.3%Belmont 39.7%
71-74144.5Northern Iowa -3.0American University at Colgate • FINAL16-16 • 18-15Final Score: American University 62-64 Colgate
Colgate 64.0%American University 36.0%
73-77150.1Colgate -4.0Saint Louis at VCU • FINAL29-6 • 28-8Final Score: Saint Louis 71-62 VCU
VCU 59.8%Saint Louis 40.2%
79-80158.5VCU -1.4Richmond at St. Bonaventure • FINAL15-17 • 17-17Final Score: Richmond 89-80 St. Bonaventure
St. Bonaventure 69.0%Richmond 31.0%
74-79152.9St. Bonaventure -5.4La Salle at Rhode Island • FINAL9-23 • 16-16Final Score: La Salle 79-72 Rhode Island
Rhode Island 83.1%La Salle 16.9%
64-75139.0Rhode Island -11.6George Mason at Fordham • FINAL23-10 • 17-15Final Score: George Mason 67-58 Fordham
George Mason 55.4%Fordham 44.6%
68-69137.3Fordham -0.4Duquesne at Saint Joseph's • FINAL18-15 • 24-12Final Score: Duquesne 90-97 Saint Joseph's
Saint Joseph's 67.0%Duquesne 33.0%
73-78150.0Saint Joseph's -5.0East Carolina at Temple • FINAL11-20 • 16-16Final Score: East Carolina 67-75 Temple
Temple 77.6%East Carolina 22.4%
69-79148.2Temple -9.7Florida Atlantic at UAB • FINAL18-15 • 20-12Final Score: Florida Atlantic 76-71 UAB
UAB 75.0%Florida Atlantic 25.0%
74-81155.8UAB -7.2Boston University at Lafayette • FINAL16-18 • 11-21Final Score: Boston University 83-67 Lafayette
Boston University 66.4%Lafayette 33.6%
75-72147.9Boston University -2.9Presbyterian at Radford • FINAL15-18 • 16-16Final Score: Presbyterian 61-80 Radford
Radford 65.8%Presbyterian 34.2%
75-80154.9Radford -5.2Gardner-Webb at High Point • FINAL4-29 • 31-5Final Score: Gardner-Webb 49-104 High Point
High Point 99.0%Gardner-Webb 1.0%
62-99161.0High Point -36.4Xavier at Marquette • FINAL15-18 • 12-20Final Score: Xavier 65-66 Marquette
Marquette 69.4%Xavier 30.6%
76-82158.1Marquette -6.0Miami at Wake Forest • FINAL26-9 • 18-17Final Score: Miami 81-77 Wake Forest
Miami 59.2%Wake Forest 40.8%
80-78157.4Miami -2.3Stanford at Virginia Tech • FINAL20-13 • 19-13Final Score: Stanford 69-68 Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech 58.5%Stanford 41.5%
75-79153.6Virginia Tech -3.8Bucknell at Navy • FINAL10-23 • 26-8Final Score: Bucknell 55-76 Navy
Navy 94.6%Bucknell 5.4%
61-80141.2Navy -19.7Purdue Fort Wayne at Youngstown State • FINAL17-15 • 14-17Final Score: Purdue Fort Wayne 71-69 Youngstown State
Youngstown State 70.6%Purdue Fort Wayne 29.4%
73-80152.6Youngstown State -6.4Western Carolina at Samford • FINAL15-16 • 18-14Final Score: Western Carolina 77-82 Samford
Samford 65.3%Western Carolina 34.7%
77-82158.2Samford -5.0The Citadel at Mercer • FINAL11-22 • 19-13Final Score: The Citadel 63-101 Mercer
Mercer 92.9%The Citadel 7.1%
69-87155.8Mercer -17.8Marshall at James Madison • FINAL19-13 • 18-15Final Score: Marshall 66-64 James Madison
James Madison 63.2%Marshall 36.8%
77-80156.6James Madison -3.5Oklahoma at Mississippi State • FINAL21-16 • 13-19Final Score: Oklahoma 53-72 Mississippi State
Oklahoma 80.9%Mississippi State 19.1%
86-78164.5Oklahoma -7.6Missouri State at Kennesaw State • FINAL16-18 • 21-14Final Score: Missouri State 80-90 Kennesaw State
Kennesaw State 73.5%Missouri State 26.5%
74-82156.7Kennesaw State -8.0Florida International at Jacksonville State • FINAL15-17 • 15-17Final Score: Florida International 64-71 Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State 64.5%Florida International 35.5%
73-78151.7Jacksonville State -4.8Rice at Wichita State • FINAL13-18 • 24-12Final Score: Rice 66-64 Wichita State
Wichita State 92.6%Rice 7.4%
67-83150.4Wichita State -16.3Illinois State at Valparaiso • FINAL23-13 • 18-15Final Score: Illinois State 71-77 Valparaiso
Valparaiso 50.5%Illinois State 49.5%
72-72143.6Illinois State -0.0Southern Illinois at UIC • FINAL16-16 • 19-16Final Score: Southern Illinois 57-70 UIC
UIC 67.8%Southern Illinois 32.2%
70-75145.0UIC -5.4Murray State at Evansville • FINAL20-13 • 7-25Final Score: Murray State 79-69 Evansville
Murray State 87.5%Evansville 12.5%
84-73156.0Murray State -11.0South Florida at North Texas • FINAL25-9 • 19-14Final Score: South Florida 74-70 North Texas
South Florida 79.3%North Texas 20.7%
80-73152.6South Florida -7.4Charlotte at UTSA • FINAL17-17 • 5-25Final Score: Charlotte 74-58 UTSA
Charlotte 83.0%UTSA 17.0%
80-71150.9Charlotte -8.9Troy at Arkansas State • FINAL22-12 • 20-12Final Score: Troy 74-86 Arkansas State
Arkansas State 71.3%Troy 28.7%
77-83159.8Arkansas State -6.0Drake at Bradley • FINAL14-20 • 21-13Final Score: Drake 66-93 Bradley
Bradley 80.2%Drake 19.8%
72-81152.5Bradley -9.4Davidson at Loyola Chicago • FINAL20-14 • 9-24Final Score: Davidson 79-64 Loyola Chicago
Davidson 73.4%Loyola Chicago 26.6%
74-67141.1Davidson -6.4Utah at Colorado • FINAL10-22 • 17-16Final Score: Utah 73-85 Colorado
Colorado 81.6%Utah 18.4%
75-85160.3Colorado -10.1California at Virginia • FINAL22-12 • 30-6Final Score: California 60-84 Virginia
Virginia 86.9%California 13.1%
70-83152.5Virginia -12.7SMU at Clemson • FINAL20-14 • 24-10Final Score: SMU 70-74 Clemson
Clemson 55.5%SMU 44.5%
74-77150.5Clemson -2.7South Dakota at St. Thomas-Minnesota • FINAL16-16 • 24-10Final Score: South Dakota 86-99 St. Thomas-Minnesota
St. Thomas-Minnesota 90.8%South Dakota 9.2%
72-88160.2St. Thomas-Minnesota -15.6Grand Canyon at Boise State • FINAL20-12 • 20-12Final Score: Grand Canyon 75-58 Boise State
Boise State 61.7%Grand Canyon 38.3%
73-76149.5Boise State -3.3Hofstra at Towson • FINAL24-11 • 19-15Final Score: Hofstra 78-67 Towson
Hofstra 52.0%Towson 48.0%
69-69138.1Towson -0.1Chicago State at Fairleigh Dickinson • FINAL7-25 • 11-21Final Score: Chicago State 63-70 Fairleigh Dickinson
Fairleigh Dickinson 68.0%Chicago State 32.0%
66-73139.0Fairleigh Dickinson -7.0UMass Lowell at Bryant • FINAL15-18 • 9-22Final Score: UMass Lowell 77-63 Bryant
UMass Lowell 63.9%Bryant 36.1%
73-71144.8UMass Lowell -2.2Maine at UMBC • FINAL8-24 • 24-8Final Score: Maine 62-69 UMBC
UMBC 95.8%Maine 4.2%
57-77133.2UMBC -20.1THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
HOW TO READ IT
One projection. One permanent result.
MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.
ACCOUNTABILITY
Every prediction leaves a receipt.
MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.