#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference
81.7122.295.2+26.9THE BOARD
The Numbers Behind the Noise.
MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.
SIGNATURE MODEL
Numbers Before Narratives.
MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.
THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
MMH POWER INDEX
2025-26 season • 366 Division I teamsTeam Ratings
TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET
#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference
80.9122.397+25.2#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference
79.9120.396.9+23.4#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference
79.7120.999.3+21.7#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference
76.5125103.3+21.7#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference
76.4119.794+25.7#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference
76118.495.9+22.5#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference
75.9119.396+23.3#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference
73.2124.8107.8+17#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference
70.7116.797.4+19.3#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference
70.3114.497.6+16.8#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference
70.2116.398.4+17.9#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference
69.8117101.5+15.5#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference
69.5121.6111.2+10.4#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference
69.3122.2109.8+12.4#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference
69123.898.3+25.5#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference
68.9119101.8+17.2#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference
68.9120.9105.7+15.2#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference
68.8117.3101.6+15.7#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference
68.6115.8102.1+13.6#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference
67.1118.6102.2+16.5#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference
67114.498.3+16.1#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference
66.7120.897.6+23.2#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference
66.7117.498.3+19.1#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference
65.8122.7103.3+19.4MMH MATCHUPS
Games
MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD
Marquette at Creighton • FINAL12-20 • 15-18Final Score: Marquette 63-84 Creighton
Creighton 57.9%Marquette 42.1%
75-78153.0Creighton -3.4Texas Tech at Duke • FINAL23-11 • 35-3Final Score: Texas Tech 82-81 Duke
Duke 90.7%Texas Tech 9.3%
68-83151.0Duke -15.3San Diego State at Arizona • FINAL22-10 • 36-3Final Score: San Diego State 45-68 Arizona
Arizona 93.8%San Diego State 6.2%
68-86154.4Arizona -17.4Kennesaw State at Alabama • FINAL21-14 • 24-10Final Score: Kennesaw State 81-92 Alabama
Alabama 88.6%Kennesaw State 11.4%
80-92172.3Alabama -12.4Gardner-Webb at Tennessee • FINAL4-29 • 25-12Final Score: Gardner-Webb 52-94 Tennessee
Tennessee 99.0%Gardner-Webb 1.0%
59-94153.3Tennessee -34.7Gonzaga at Oregon • FINAL31-4 • 12-19Final Score: Gonzaga 91-82 Oregon
Gonzaga 92.8%Oregon 7.2%
83-66149.1Gonzaga -16.4Colgate at Florida • FINAL18-15 • 27-8Final Score: Colgate 60-90 Florida
Florida 98.1%Colgate 1.9%
66-92157.9Florida -25.4La Salle at Michigan • FINAL9-23 • 36-3Final Score: La Salle 50-102 Michigan
Michigan 99.0%La Salle 1.0%
59-92151.0Michigan -32.4UConn at DePaul • FINAL34-5 • 16-16Final Score: UConn 72-54 DePaul
UConn 87.2%DePaul 12.8%
76-65140.8UConn -10.6Long Beach State at Iowa State • FINAL10-22 • 28-8Final Score: Long Beach State 60-91 Iowa State
Iowa State 98.8%Long Beach State 1.2%
62-90152.1Iowa State -28.3Fresno State at UNLV • FINAL13-19 • 18-16Final Score: Fresno State 72-84 UNLV
UNLV 75.8%Fresno State 24.2%
73-81153.9UNLV -7.2Omaha at Lamar • FINAL16-17 • 12-19Final Score: Omaha 85-82 Lamar
Lamar 61.4%Omaha 38.6%
71-76146.7Lamar -4.7Eastern Washington at Utah • FINAL14-19 • 10-22Final Score: Eastern Washington 77-101 Utah
Eastern Washington 60.5%Utah 39.5%
80-79158.5Eastern Washington -0.9Portland State at Tulane • FINAL20-11 • 18-15Final Score: Portland State 61-63 Tulane
Portland State 53.7%Tulane 46.3%
75-74148.7Portland State -1.4Sacramento State at California Baptist • FINAL10-21 • 25-9Final Score: Sacramento State 67-74 California Baptist
California Baptist 90.1%Sacramento State 9.9%
68-84151.7California Baptist -15.3Xavier at Georgetown • FINAL15-18 • 13-18Final Score: Xavier 80-77 Georgetown
Georgetown 67.5%Xavier 32.5%
70-76146.4Georgetown -5.9Stanford at Colorado • FINAL20-13 • 17-16Final Score: Stanford 77-68 Colorado
Stanford 55.4%Colorado 44.6%
79-79157.5Stanford -0.1Pennsylvania at Rutgers • FINAL18-12 • 13-20Final Score: Pennsylvania 69-70 Rutgers
Pennsylvania 56.7%Rutgers 43.3%
76-74149.6Pennsylvania -1.4San José State at New Mexico • FINAL9-24 • 26-11Final Score: San José State 65-88 New Mexico
New Mexico 94.9%San José State 5.1%
67-87153.7New Mexico -20.7Rice at Pepperdine • FINAL13-18 • 9-23Final Score: Rice 62-84 Pepperdine
Rice 56.5%Pepperdine 43.5%
77-75152.2Rice -1.4Utah Tech at Weber State • FINAL19-15 • 16-16Final Score: Utah Tech 82-80 Weber State
Weber State 69.7%Utah Tech 30.3%
76-82158.4Weber State -6.1UC Riverside at St. Thomas-Minnesota • FINAL10-22 • 24-10Final Score: UC Riverside 78-92 St. Thomas-Minnesota
St. Thomas-Minnesota 93.0%UC Riverside 7.0%
68-86154.5St. Thomas-Minnesota -17.6Boise State at Nevada • FINAL20-12 • 24-13Final Score: Boise State 66-81 Nevada
Nevada 63.2%Boise State 36.8%
74-78151.5Nevada -4.1UMass Lowell at Boston University • FINAL15-18 • 16-18Final Score: UMass Lowell 76-88 Boston University
Boston University 77.4%UMass Lowell 22.6%
72-80152.5Boston University -8.2Charleston at Northern Kentucky • FINAL21-11 • 20-14Final Score: Charleston 85-74 Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky 62.7%Charleston 37.3%
76-81157.8Northern Kentucky -5.0Pittsburgh at Penn State • FINAL13-20 • 12-20Final Score: Pittsburgh 80-46 Penn State
Pittsburgh 60.0%Penn State 40.0%
75-74149.0Pittsburgh -1.7Purdue Fort Wayne at Notre Dame • FINAL17-15 • 13-17Final Score: Purdue Fort Wayne 72-69 Notre Dame
Notre Dame 77.0%Purdue Fort Wayne 23.0%
74-82155.6Notre Dame -7.8Lehigh at Monmouth • FINAL18-17 • 19-15Final Score: Lehigh 62-76 Monmouth
Monmouth 79.0%Lehigh 21.0%
68-77145.9Monmouth -9.1Quinnipiac at Hofstra • FINAL19-13 • 24-11Final Score: Quinnipiac 66-74 Hofstra
Hofstra 80.7%Quinnipiac 19.3%
68-78145.6Hofstra -9.8Southern at Baylor • FINAL17-17 • 16-17Final Score: Southern 67-111 Baylor
Baylor 89.2%Southern 10.8%
74-88161.7Baylor -13.5Vanderbilt at Wake Forest • FINAL27-9 • 18-17Final Score: Vanderbilt 98-67 Wake Forest
Vanderbilt 67.9%Wake Forest 32.1%
83-79162.3Vanderbilt -4.6Ole Miss at NC State • FINAL15-20 • 20-14Final Score: Ole Miss 62-76 NC State
NC State 78.6%Ole Miss 21.4%
75-85159.1NC State -10.0Stony Brook at Marist • FINAL17-15 • 19-12Final Score: Stony Brook 51-70 Marist
Marist 73.1%Stony Brook 26.9%
65-73137.2Marist -7.9Murray State at Valparaiso • FINAL20-13 • 18-15Final Score: Murray State 85-79 Valparaiso
Valparaiso 52.4%Murray State 47.6%
77-79156.0Valparaiso -1.3Southern Illinois at Bradley • FINAL16-16 • 21-13Final Score: Southern Illinois 69-73 Bradley
Bradley 61.9%Southern Illinois 38.1%
72-76147.9Bradley -3.9Presbyterian at Manhattan • FINAL15-18 • 12-20Final Score: Presbyterian 81-87 Manhattan
Presbyterian 57.5%Manhattan 42.5%
76-75150.4Presbyterian -1.4Charleston Southern at Furman • FINAL15-17 • 22-13Final Score: Charleston Southern 76-84 Furman
Furman 77.2%Charleston Southern 22.8%
75-83158.8Furman -8.1UIC at Charlotte • FINAL19-16 • 17-17Final Score: UIC 76-88 Charlotte
UIC 57.8%Charlotte 42.2%
75-73148.2UIC -1.5Maine at Drexel • FINAL8-24 • 17-16Final Score: Maine 56-74 Drexel
Drexel 84.9%Maine 15.1%
60-71131.0Drexel -12.0Loyola Maryland at George Mason • FINAL12-20 • 23-10Final Score: Loyola Maryland 79-86 George Mason
George Mason 90.8%Loyola Maryland 9.2%
66-81147.9George Mason -15.1Central Arkansas at SMU • FINAL22-12 • 20-14Final Score: Central Arkansas 82-99 SMU
SMU 81.1%Central Arkansas 18.9%
77-86162.9SMU -9.4Cal State Fullerton at Oklahoma State • FINAL18-16 • 20-15Final Score: Cal State Fullerton 89-94 Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State 72.4%Cal State Fullerton 27.6%
83-89171.8Oklahoma State -6.7VMI at Radford • FINAL5-26 • 16-16Final Score: VMI 90-97 Radford
Radford 93.1%VMI 6.9%
70-87156.8Radford -17.0Cornell at UAlbany • FINAL15-13 • 11-20Final Score: Cornell 83-75 UAlbany
Cornell 74.5%UAlbany 25.5%
82-77158.5Cornell -5.0UNC Asheville at UAB • FINAL15-17 • 20-12Final Score: UNC Asheville 47-72 UAB
UAB 83.1%UNC Asheville 16.9%
70-81151.6UAB -10.8UMBC at South Florida • FINAL24-8 • 25-9Final Score: UMBC 69-94 South Florida
South Florida 83.1%UMBC 16.9%
71-82153.0South Florida -11.1Northern Arizona at Incarnate Word • FINAL10-22 • 12-19Final Score: Northern Arizona 66-90 Incarnate Word
Incarnate Word 79.7%Northern Arizona 20.3%
70-80149.4Incarnate Word -9.7Oregon State at Arizona State • FINAL17-16 • 17-16Final Score: Oregon State 78-75 Arizona State
Arizona State 68.7%Oregon State 31.3%
73-79151.9Arizona State -6.0New Hampshire at Saint Louis • FINAL9-21 • 29-6Final Score: New Hampshire 79-93 Saint Louis
Saint Louis 98.5%New Hampshire 1.5%
62-90152.8Saint Louis -28.2Cincinnati at Clemson • FINAL18-15 • 24-10Final Score: Cincinnati 65-68 Clemson
Clemson 58.2%Cincinnati 41.8%
67-71137.7Clemson -3.4Drake at Evansville • FINAL14-20 • 7-25Final Score: Drake 66-65 Evansville
Drake 75.8%Evansville 24.2%
77-71147.9Drake -6.2East Texas A&M at Texas A&M • FINAL11-21 • 20-12Final Score: East Texas A&M 77-118 Texas A&M
Texas A&M 93.7%East Texas A&M 6.3%
67-85151.9Texas A&M -17.6Florida A&M at TCU • FINAL14-16 • 23-12Final Score: Florida A&M 56-80 TCU
TCU 94.1%Florida A&M 5.9%
65-83148.1TCU -18.4North Florida at Miami • FINAL7-25 • 26-9Final Score: North Florida 67-105 Miami
Miami 97.7%North Florida 2.3%
70-95164.7Miami -25.6Sam Houston at New Mexico State • FINAL22-12 • 16-16Final Score: Sam Houston 78-87 New Mexico State
Sam Houston 50.9%New Mexico State 49.1%
77-78154.7New Mexico State -0.5Indiana State at Illinois State • FINAL11-21 • 23-13Final Score: Indiana State 65-85 Illinois State
Illinois State 83.4%Indiana State 16.6%
68-79146.6Illinois State -11.5Chattanooga at Alabama A&M • FINAL13-19 • 18-15Final Score: Chattanooga 73-66 Alabama A&M
Alabama A&M 52.7%Chattanooga 47.3%
74-76149.8Alabama A&M -1.6Eastern Kentucky at Wichita State • FINAL11-21 • 24-12Final Score: Eastern Kentucky 57-88 Wichita State
Wichita State 92.6%Eastern Kentucky 7.4%
71-88158.9Wichita State -16.7Milwaukee at Cleveland State • FINAL12-20 • 11-22Final Score: Milwaukee 81-71 Cleveland State
Milwaukee 58.9%Cleveland State 41.1%
83-82165.4Milwaukee -1.2Columbia at California • FINAL16-12 • 22-12Final Score: Columbia 56-74 California
California 73.5%Columbia 26.5%
73-79151.9California -6.7Austin Peay at Kansas City • FINAL22-9 • 4-27Final Score: Austin Peay 0-0 Kansas City
Austin Peay 93.9%Kansas City 6.1%
87-70157.1Austin Peay -17.3Campbell at Minnesota • FINAL15-18 • 15-18Final Score: Campbell 50-78 Minnesota
Minnesota 60.9%Campbell 39.1%
72-76148.5Minnesota -4.3UC Davis at Idaho State • FINAL19-14 • 13-20Final Score: UC Davis 93-83 Idaho State
Idaho State 55.7%UC Davis 44.3%
76-78154.3Idaho State -1.7Morgan State at San Francisco • FINAL14-16 • 17-16Final Score: Morgan State 64-94 San Francisco
San Francisco 87.5%Morgan State 12.5%
70-83152.9San Francisco -13.1THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
HOW TO READ IT
One projection. One permanent result.
MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.
ACCOUNTABILITY
Every prediction leaves a receipt.
MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.