THE BOARD

The Numbers Behind the Noise.

MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.

SIGNATURE MODEL

Numbers Before Narratives.

MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

MMH POWER INDEX

Team Ratings

2025-26 season • 366 Division I teams

TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET

#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference

81.7122.295.2+26.9

#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference

80.9122.397+25.2

#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference

79.9120.396.9+23.4

#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference

79.7120.999.3+21.7

#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference

76.5125103.3+21.7

#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference

76.4119.794+25.7

#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference

76118.495.9+22.5

#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference

75.9119.396+23.3

#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference

73.2124.8107.8+17

#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference

70.7116.797.4+19.3

#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference

70.3114.497.6+16.8

#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference

70.2116.398.4+17.9

#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference

69.8117101.5+15.5

#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference

69.5121.6111.2+10.4

#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference

69.3122.2109.8+12.4

#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference

69123.898.3+25.5

#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference

68.9119101.8+17.2

#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference

68.9120.9105.7+15.2

#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference

68.8117.3101.6+15.7

#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference

68.6115.8102.1+13.6

#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference

67.1118.6102.2+16.5

#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference

67114.498.3+16.1

#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference

66.7120.897.6+23.2

#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference

66.7117.498.3+19.1

#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference

65.8122.7103.3+19.4

MMH MATCHUPS

Games

← Previous DayDecember 20, 2025Next Day →

MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD

Wisconsin at Villanova • FINAL24-11 • 24-9Final Score: Wisconsin 66-76 Villanova

Wisconsin 51.5%Villanova 48.5%

78-79156.6Villanova -1.0

Abilene Christian at BYU • FINAL14-19 • 23-12Final Score: Abilene Christian 67-85 BYU

BYU 94.8%Abilene Christian 5.2%

67-86153.0BYU -18.9

Cal Poly at UCLA • FINAL14-19 • 24-12Final Score: Cal Poly 87-108 UCLA

UCLA 91.3%Cal Poly 8.7%

73-89161.7UCLA -15.6

Oakland at Michigan State • FINAL16-16 • 27-8Final Score: Oakland 70-79 Michigan State

Michigan State 91.9%Oakland 8.1%

71-88159.0Michigan State -16.6

Montana at Louisville • FINAL18-16 • 24-11Final Score: Montana 54-94 Louisville

Louisville 94.9%Montana 5.1%

69-88157.4Louisville -18.9

St. John's at Kentucky • FINAL30-6 • 22-14Final Score: St. John's 66-78 Kentucky

St. John's 55.1%Kentucky 44.9%

78-77155.2St. John's -0.8

North Carolina at Ohio State • FINAL24-9 • 21-13Final Score: North Carolina 71-70 Ohio State

Ohio State 60.6%North Carolina 39.4%

76-79154.1Ohio State -3.0

Houston at Arkansas • FINAL29-7 • 28-9Final Score: Houston 94-85 Arkansas

Houston 55.9%Arkansas 44.1%

80-79158.3Houston -0.8

Auburn at Purdue • FINAL21-16 • 30-9Final Score: Auburn 60-88 Purdue

Purdue 81.6%Auburn 18.4%

75-86160.7Purdue -10.6

Mississippi Valley State at Florida State • FINAL3-30 • 18-15Final Score: Mississippi Valley State 49-96 Florida State

Florida State 99.0%Mississippi Valley State 1.0%

61-94155.4Florida State -32.5

La Salle at High Point • FINAL9-23 • 31-5Final Score: La Salle 72-84 High Point

High Point 97.3%La Salle 2.7%

64-89153.0High Point -25.1

Eastern Michigan at Akron • FINAL10-21 • 29-6Final Score: Eastern Michigan 72-93 Akron

Akron 95.3%Eastern Michigan 4.7%

68-88155.6Akron -20.3

Mount St. Mary's at Drexel • FINAL15-17 • 17-16Final Score: Mount St. Mary's 67-75 Drexel

Drexel 72.0%Mount St. Mary's 28.0%

64-71135.5Drexel -7.2

Norfolk State at Jackson State • FINAL15-17 • 12-21Final Score: Norfolk State 82-72 Jackson State

Norfolk State 71.9%Jackson State 28.1%

81-74154.6Norfolk State -6.8

Tulsa at Western Kentucky • FINAL30-8 • 18-14Final Score: Tulsa 82-81 Western Kentucky

Tulsa 62.6%Western Kentucky 37.4%

82-79160.8Tulsa -3.0

Florida A&M at Tarleton State • FINAL14-16 • 14-18Final Score: Florida A&M 54-78 Tarleton State

Tarleton State 74.8%Florida A&M 25.2%

69-78147.1Tarleton State -8.8

Alcorn State at Baylor • FINAL9-23 • 16-17Final Score: Alcorn State 56-113 Baylor

Baylor 97.9%Alcorn State 2.1%

65-90155.0Baylor -25.6

SE Louisiana at LSU • FINAL9-21 • 15-17Final Score: SE Louisiana 65-78 LSU

LSU 90.3%SE Louisiana 9.7%

66-80145.8LSU -14.5

Belmont at UC Irvine • FINAL26-6 • 23-12Final Score: Belmont 84-58 UC Irvine

UC Irvine 53.3%Belmont 46.7%

76-78154.1UC Irvine -2.2

Florida Atlantic at Saint Mary's • FINAL18-15 • 27-6Final Score: Florida Atlantic 75-88 Saint Mary's

Saint Mary's 93.3%Florida Atlantic 6.7%

66-83148.9Saint Mary's -16.7

San Diego at UC San Diego • FINAL12-21 • 23-11Final Score: San Diego 82-80 UC San Diego

UC San Diego 88.3%San Diego 11.7%

69-82150.9UC San Diego -13.8

North Alabama at Loyola Marymount • FINAL9-21 • 15-17Final Score: North Alabama 57-91 Loyola Marymount

Loyola Marymount 89.8%North Alabama 10.2%

66-82147.9Loyola Marymount -15.2

Morgan State at California • FINAL14-16 • 22-12Final Score: Morgan State 50-97 California

California 93.5%Morgan State 6.5%

69-86155.1California -17.6

Washington at Seattle U • FINAL16-17 • 21-14Final Score: Washington 66-70 Seattle U

Washington 53.1%Seattle U 46.9%

72-74145.8Seattle U -1.2

Florida Gulf Coast at UCF • FINAL16-18 • 21-12Final Score: Florida Gulf Coast 80-102 UCF

UCF 81.1%Florida Gulf Coast 18.9%

75-85160.0UCF -9.7

South Dakota at Kansas State • FINAL16-16 • 12-20Final Score: South Dakota 76-106 Kansas State

Kansas State 70.6%South Dakota 29.4%

79-86165.3Kansas State -6.3

Liberty at Dayton • FINAL26-8 • 25-12Final Score: Liberty 64-61 Dayton

Dayton 76.9%Liberty 23.1%

70-77147.0Dayton -7.6

South Carolina Upstate at Youngstown State • FINAL13-19 • 14-17Final Score: South Carolina Upstate 65-74 Youngstown State

Youngstown State 70.2%South Carolina Upstate 29.8%

71-77148.4Youngstown State -6.1

Chicago State at Indiana • FINAL7-25 • 18-14Final Score: Chicago State 58-78 Indiana

Indiana 95.1%Chicago State 4.9%

63-84147.1Indiana -20.6

Le Moyne at St. Bonaventure • FINAL15-17 • 17-17Final Score: Le Moyne 81-92 St. Bonaventure

St. Bonaventure 82.9%Le Moyne 17.1%

70-80150.1St. Bonaventure -10.3

Buffalo at Western Michigan • FINAL17-15 • 10-21Final Score: Buffalo 88-71 Western Michigan

Buffalo 56.5%Western Michigan 43.5%

79-78157.2Buffalo -1.0

Robert Morris at Saint Francis • FINAL22-11 • 7-24Final Score: Robert Morris 79-70 Saint Francis

Robert Morris 89.3%Saint Francis 10.7%

83-70153.2Robert Morris -12.6

Georgia State at App State • FINAL10-22 • 19-13Final Score: Georgia State 70-63 App State

App State 90.1%Georgia State 9.9%

63-78141.5App State -14.7

Colorado State at Utah State • FINAL21-13 • 29-7Final Score: Colorado State 58-100 Utah State

Utah State 84.0%Colorado State 16.0%

70-82151.9Utah State -12.0

Howard at UNC Wilmington • FINAL24-11 • 27-7Final Score: Howard 67-66 UNC Wilmington

UNC Wilmington 68.3%Howard 31.7%

71-76146.7UNC Wilmington -5.6

Longwood at North Carolina Central • FINAL16-16 • 14-18Final Score: Longwood 74-72 North Carolina Central

Longwood 67.7%North Carolina Central 32.3%

78-74151.5Longwood -4.1

Memphis at Mississippi State • FINAL13-19 • 13-19Final Score: Memphis 66-71 Mississippi State

Mississippi State 53.8%Memphis 46.2%

79-80159.0Mississippi State -1.3

Lafayette at Georgia Tech • FINAL11-21 • 11-20Final Score: Lafayette 81-95 Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech 69.2%Lafayette 30.8%

71-78149.0Georgia Tech -6.5

Iona at Vermont • FINAL18-14 • 22-12Final Score: Iona 83-78 Vermont

Vermont 76.9%Iona 23.1%

69-77145.2Vermont -8.0

Binghamton at Mercyhurst • FINAL8-22 • 17-17Final Score: Binghamton 61-82 Mercyhurst

Mercyhurst 87.7%Binghamton 12.3%

61-75136.1Mercyhurst -13.6

Elon at Virginia Tech • FINAL14-18 • 19-13Final Score: Elon 81-82 Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech 86.6%Elon 13.4%

73-85157.9Virginia Tech -12.2

Miami (OH) at Ball State • FINAL32-2 • 12-19Final Score: Miami (OH) 86-77 Ball State

Miami (OH) 83.9%Ball State 16.1%

82-71152.9Miami (OH) -10.4

Kent State at Massachusetts • FINAL24-10 • 17-16Final Score: Kent State 69-59 Massachusetts

Massachusetts 53.8%Kent State 46.2%

82-84165.6Massachusetts -1.8

Holy Cross at Harvard • FINAL11-22 • 17-12Final Score: Holy Cross 53-81 Harvard

Harvard 89.5%Holy Cross 10.5%

62-76138.5Harvard -14.4

Marshall at Troy • FINAL19-13 • 22-12Final Score: Marshall 63-70 Troy

Troy 67.8%Marshall 32.2%

77-83159.2Troy -6.0

Coastal Carolina at Old Dominion • FINAL19-13 • 12-21Final Score: Coastal Carolina 76-74 Old Dominion

Old Dominion 63.5%Coastal Carolina 36.5%

74-78152.0Old Dominion -3.4

Denver at Northern Colorado • FINAL15-17 • 20-12Final Score: Denver 86-79 Northern Colorado

Northern Colorado 73.5%Denver 26.5%

80-88167.4Northern Colorado -8.4

Central Michigan at Northern Illinois • FINAL10-21 • 9-21Final Score: Central Michigan 73-74 Northern Illinois

Central Michigan 75.8%Northern Illinois 24.2%

78-73150.5Central Michigan -4.9

Louisiana at UL Monroe • FINAL11-22 • 4-28Final Score: Louisiana 76-62 UL Monroe

Louisiana 58.6%UL Monroe 41.4%

74-72146.0Louisiana -2.0

South Alabama at Texas State • FINAL21-12 • 19-13Final Score: South Alabama 65-67 Texas State

Texas State 57.1%South Alabama 42.9%

71-74145.3Texas State -2.8

Jacksonville State at East Tennessee State • FINAL15-17 • 23-11Final Score: Jacksonville State 81-75 East Tennessee State

East Tennessee State 76.9%Jacksonville State 23.1%

68-76144.5East Tennessee State -8.5

Grand Canyon at Wyoming • FINAL20-12 • 18-15Final Score: Grand Canyon 82-70 Wyoming

Wyoming 52.4%Grand Canyon 47.6%

74-75148.5Wyoming -1.2

Northwestern at Butler • FINAL15-19 • 16-16Final Score: Northwestern 58-61 Butler

Butler 55.2%Northwestern 44.8%

75-78153.4Butler -2.8

Northeastern at Syracuse • FINAL8-23 • 15-16Final Score: Northeastern 83-91 Syracuse

Syracuse 85.4%Northeastern 14.6%

71-84154.9Syracuse -12.7

Bowling Green at Ohio • FINAL18-14 • 15-17Final Score: Bowling Green 68-58 Ohio

Bowling Green 55.9%Ohio 44.1%

80-78157.9Bowling Green -2.5

UT Martin at Tennessee Tech • FINAL22-11 • 13-18Final Score: UT Martin 86-62 Tennessee Tech

UT Martin 53.4%Tennessee Tech 46.6%

71-69139.9UT Martin -1.5

Arkansas State at Southern Miss • FINAL20-12 • 19-16Final Score: Arkansas State 93-86 Southern Miss

Arkansas State 58.9%Southern Miss 41.1%

79-78157.3Arkansas State -1.5

Southeast Missouri State at Tennessee State • FINAL20-13 • 23-10Final Score: Southeast Missouri State 91-82 Tennessee State

Tennessee State 71.8%Southeast Missouri State 28.2%

73-79151.9Tennessee State -6.7

Morehead State at Southern Indiana • FINAL20-13 • 7-22Final Score: Morehead State 64-60 Southern Indiana

Morehead State 64.7%Southern Indiana 35.3%

73-71143.9Morehead State -2.1

Mercer at Washington State • FINAL19-13 • 12-20Final Score: Mercer 78-84 Washington State

Mercer 52.3%Washington State 47.7%

80-79159.4Mercer -0.7

Long Island University at Florida International • FINAL24-11 • 15-17Final Score: Long Island University 79-86 Florida International

Florida International 63.0%Long Island University 37.0%

75-80154.5Florida International -4.6

James Madison at Georgia Southern • FINAL18-15 • 21-16Final Score: James Madison 92-96 Georgia Southern

Georgia Southern 53.8%James Madison 46.2%

78-80157.5Georgia Southern -2.2

Maryland at Virginia • FINAL12-20 • 30-6Final Score: Maryland 72-80 Virginia

Virginia 96.3%Maryland 3.7%

63-85148.7Virginia -22.1

The Citadel at Richmond • FINAL11-22 • 15-17Final Score: The Citadel 56-80 Richmond

Richmond 89.4%The Citadel 10.6%

68-83151.1Richmond -14.7

Bucknell at Iowa • FINAL10-23 • 24-13Final Score: Bucknell 39-94 Iowa

Iowa 97.5%Bucknell 2.5%

59-83142.6Iowa -23.8

Loyola Chicago at Santa Clara • FINAL9-24 • 26-9Final Score: Loyola Chicago 80-78 Santa Clara

Santa Clara 96.6%Loyola Chicago 3.4%

64-87150.8Santa Clara -23.1

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

HOW TO READ IT

One projection. One permanent result.

MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.

ACCOUNTABILITY

Every prediction leaves a receipt.

MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.