THE BOARD

The Numbers Behind the Noise.

MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.

SIGNATURE MODEL

Numbers Before Narratives.

MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

MMH POWER INDEX

Team Ratings

2025-26 season • 366 Division I teams

TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET

#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference

81.7122.295.2+26.9

#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference

80.9122.397+25.2

#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference

79.9120.396.9+23.4

#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference

79.7120.999.3+21.7

#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference

76.5125103.3+21.7

#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference

76.4119.794+25.7

#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference

76118.495.9+22.5

#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference

75.9119.396+23.3

#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference

73.2124.8107.8+17

#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference

70.7116.797.4+19.3

#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference

70.3114.497.6+16.8

#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference

70.2116.398.4+17.9

#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference

69.8117101.5+15.5

#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference

69.5121.6111.2+10.4

#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference

69.3122.2109.8+12.4

#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference

69123.898.3+25.5

#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference

68.9119101.8+17.2

#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference

68.9120.9105.7+15.2

#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference

68.8117.3101.6+15.7

#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference

68.6115.8102.1+13.6

#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference

67.1118.6102.2+16.5

#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference

67114.498.3+16.1

#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference

66.7120.897.6+23.2

#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference

66.7117.498.3+19.1

#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference

65.8122.7103.3+19.4

MMH MATCHUPS

Games

← Previous DayJanuary 21, 2026Next Day →

MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD

Kansas at Colorado • FINAL24-11 • 17-16Final Score: Kansas 75-69 Colorado

Kansas 62.9%Colorado 37.1%

79-76154.5Kansas -3.1

Seton Hall at St. John's • FINAL21-12 • 30-6Final Score: Seton Hall 60-65 St. John's

St. John's 87.9%Seton Hall 12.1%

65-78143.2St. John's -13.1

Indiana at Michigan • FINAL18-14 • 36-3Final Score: Indiana 72-86 Michigan

Michigan 95.4%Indiana 4.6%

68-89156.9Michigan -20.1

Auburn at Ole Miss • FINAL21-16 • 15-20Final Score: Auburn 78-66 Ole Miss

Auburn 68.2%Ole Miss 31.8%

82-79160.6Auburn -3.1

Michigan State at Oregon • FINAL27-8 • 12-19Final Score: Michigan State 68-52 Oregon

Michigan State 86.0%Oregon 14.0%

79-68146.9Michigan State -10.8

LSU at Florida • FINAL15-17 • 27-8Final Score: LSU 61-79 Florida

Florida 96.6%LSU 3.4%

71-93163.5Florida -21.6

UCF at Iowa State • FINAL21-12 • 28-8Final Score: UCF 57-87 Iowa State

Iowa State 93.1%UCF 6.9%

69-87155.8Iowa State -17.7

Texas Tech at Baylor • FINAL23-11 • 16-17Final Score: Texas Tech 92-73 Baylor

Texas Tech 56.5%Baylor 43.5%

80-79158.8Texas Tech -0.6

Vanderbilt at Arkansas • FINAL27-9 • 28-9Final Score: Vanderbilt 68-93 Arkansas

Arkansas 63.5%Vanderbilt 36.5%

84-88171.8Arkansas -3.9

Purdue at UCLA • FINAL30-9 • 24-12Final Score: Purdue 67-69 UCLA

Purdue 65.2%UCLA 34.8%

77-75152.2Purdue -2.7

Air Force at Colorado State • FINAL3-29 • 21-13Final Score: Air Force 52-81 Colorado State

Colorado State 98.4%Air Force 1.6%

59-86144.9Colorado State -26.9

Loyola Chicago at St. Bonaventure • FINAL9-24 • 17-17Final Score: Loyola Chicago 70-84 St. Bonaventure

St. Bonaventure 88.2%Loyola Chicago 11.8%

67-81147.8St. Bonaventure -14.1

Saint Louis at Duquesne • FINAL29-6 • 18-15Final Score: Saint Louis 81-77 Duquesne

Saint Louis 78.1%Duquesne 21.9%

84-75159.0Saint Louis -8.5

Florida State at Miami • FINAL18-15 • 26-9Final Score: Florida State 65-63 Miami

Miami 78.0%Florida State 22.0%

74-84158.9Miami -9.9

NC State at Clemson • FINAL20-14 • 24-10Final Score: NC State 80-76 Clemson

Clemson 61.9%NC State 38.1%

73-76148.9Clemson -3.8

Northern Illinois at Ohio • FINAL9-21 • 15-17Final Score: Northern Illinois 77-80 Ohio

Ohio 93.1%Northern Illinois 6.9%

69-85154.3Ohio -16.0

Miami (OH) at Kent State • FINAL32-2 • 24-10Final Score: Miami (OH) 107-101 Kent State

Miami (OH) 54.0%Kent State 46.0%

86-84170.1Miami (OH) -1.2

Bowling Green at Western Michigan • FINAL18-14 • 10-21Final Score: Bowling Green 72-54 Western Michigan

Bowling Green 69.4%Western Michigan 30.6%

81-75156.4Bowling Green -6.1

Ball State at Central Michigan • FINAL12-19 • 10-21Final Score: Ball State 68-67 Central Michigan

Central Michigan 69.2%Ball State 30.8%

69-75144.0Central Michigan -5.1

Oklahoma at South Carolina • FINAL21-16 • 13-19Final Score: Oklahoma 76-85 South Carolina

Oklahoma 73.9%South Carolina 26.1%

82-77159.4Oklahoma -4.8

DePaul at Butler • FINAL16-16 • 16-16Final Score: DePaul 80-87 Butler

Butler 72.9%DePaul 27.1%

72-78149.8Butler -6.5

Evansville at UIC • FINAL7-25 • 19-16Final Score: Evansville 49-76 UIC

UIC 96.5%Evansville 3.5%

62-83145.4UIC -21.3

Oklahoma State at TCU • FINAL20-15 • 23-12Final Score: Oklahoma State 65-68 TCU

TCU 76.9%Oklahoma State 23.1%

77-85162.1TCU -8.8

Rutgers at Iowa • FINAL13-20 • 24-13Final Score: Rutgers 62-68 Iowa

Iowa 92.7%Rutgers 7.3%

63-81143.8Iowa -17.4

Boise State at Wyoming • FINAL20-12 • 18-15Final Score: Boise State 81-65 Wyoming

Wyoming 53.3%Boise State 46.7%

75-77153.0Wyoming -2.0

UT Martin at Southeast Missouri State • FINAL22-11 • 20-13Final Score: UT Martin 50-66 Southeast Missouri State

Southeast Missouri State 67.0%UT Martin 33.0%

67-71138.3Southeast Missouri State -4.1

Utah at Kansas State • FINAL10-22 • 12-20Final Score: Utah 78-81 Kansas State

Kansas State 70.4%Utah 29.6%

77-84161.3Kansas State -6.6

SMU at Wake Forest • FINAL20-14 • 18-17Final Score: SMU 91-79 Wake Forest

SMU 50.9%Wake Forest 49.1%

81-82163.1Wake Forest -0.2

Georgia at Missouri • FINAL22-11 • 20-13Final Score: Georgia 74-72 Missouri

Georgia 56.5%Missouri 43.5%

84-83166.9Georgia -1.6

San José State at Nevada • FINAL9-24 • 24-13Final Score: San José State 54-87 Nevada

Nevada 92.4%San José State 7.6%

67-84150.8Nevada -16.8

UNLV at Utah State • FINAL18-16 • 29-7Final Score: UNLV 86-76 Utah State

Utah State 87.5%UNLV 12.5%

72-86158.5Utah State -14.0

UNC Greensboro at VMI • FINAL15-19 • 5-26Final Score: UNC Greensboro 85-78 VMI

UNC Greensboro 81.0%VMI 19.0%

81-75155.9UNC Greensboro -6.7

Lafayette at Boston University • FINAL11-21 • 16-18Final Score: Lafayette 73-77 Boston University

Boston University 84.6%Lafayette 15.4%

68-80147.9Boston University -11.1

Samford at Wofford • FINAL18-14 • 19-13Final Score: Samford 78-88 Wofford

Samford 53.1%Wofford 46.9%

79-79158.2Wofford -0.6

Dayton at La Salle • FINAL25-12 • 9-23Final Score: Dayton 64-67 La Salle

Dayton 82.7%La Salle 17.3%

76-67142.4Dayton -8.8

Radford at Winthrop • FINAL16-16 • 23-11Final Score: Radford 75-76 Winthrop

Winthrop 80.7%Radford 19.3%

77-87164.1Winthrop -10.4

UNC Asheville at South Carolina Upstate • FINAL15-17 • 13-19Final Score: UNC Asheville 83-69 South Carolina Upstate

South Carolina Upstate 52.7%UNC Asheville 47.3%

73-75148.6South Carolina Upstate -2.1

THE RECEIPTS

MMH Keeps Score of Itself

View every call →

1–0Model Record

Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.

HOW TO READ IT

One projection. One permanent result.

MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.

ACCOUNTABILITY

Every prediction leaves a receipt.

MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.