#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference
81.7122.295.2+26.9THE BOARD
The Numbers Behind the Noise.
MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.
SIGNATURE MODEL
Numbers Before Narratives.
MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.
THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
MMH POWER INDEX
2025-26 season • 366 Division I teamsTeam Ratings
TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET
#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference
80.9122.397+25.2#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference
79.9120.396.9+23.4#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference
79.7120.999.3+21.7#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference
76.5125103.3+21.7#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference
76.4119.794+25.7#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference
76118.495.9+22.5#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference
75.9119.396+23.3#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference
73.2124.8107.8+17#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference
70.7116.797.4+19.3#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference
70.3114.497.6+16.8#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference
70.2116.398.4+17.9#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference
69.8117101.5+15.5#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference
69.5121.6111.2+10.4#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference
69.3122.2109.8+12.4#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference
69123.898.3+25.5#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference
68.9119101.8+17.2#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference
68.9120.9105.7+15.2#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference
68.8117.3101.6+15.7#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference
68.6115.8102.1+13.6#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference
67.1118.6102.2+16.5#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference
67114.498.3+16.1#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference
66.7120.897.6+23.2#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference
66.7117.498.3+19.1#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference
65.8122.7103.3+19.4MMH MATCHUPS
Games
MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD
Gonzaga at Washington State • FINAL31-4 • 12-20Final Score: Gonzaga 86-65 Washington State
Gonzaga 92.9%Washington State 7.1%
85-69154.6Gonzaga -16.4Creighton at Providence • FINAL15-18 • 15-18Final Score: Creighton 88-93 Providence
Providence 71.3%Creighton 28.7%
79-85164.2Providence -6.1Arkansas State at South Alabama • FINAL20-12 • 21-12Final Score: Arkansas State 87-91 South Alabama
Arkansas State 54.8%South Alabama 45.2%
77-77154.7Arkansas State -0.2Youngstown State at Wright State • FINAL14-17 • 23-12Final Score: Youngstown State 83-93 Wright State
Wright State 84.1%Youngstown State 15.9%
71-81152.1Wright State -10.8Detroit Mercy at Northern Kentucky • FINAL17-15 • 20-14Final Score: Detroit Mercy 71-96 Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky 75.6%Detroit Mercy 24.4%
76-85161.3Northern Kentucky -8.7Green Bay at Cleveland State • FINAL18-15 • 11-22Final Score: Green Bay 88-73 Cleveland State
Green Bay 73.0%Cleveland State 27.0%
83-78161.6Green Bay -5.0Maine at Vermont • FINAL8-24 • 22-12Final Score: Maine 62-67 Vermont
Vermont 92.1%Maine 7.9%
60-75135.1Vermont -15.9Elon at Northeastern • FINAL14-18 • 8-23Final Score: Elon 78-85 Northeastern
Elon 50.1%Northeastern 49.9%
80-80159.3Northeastern -0.0North Carolina A&T at William & Mary • FINAL11-19 • 20-12Final Score: North Carolina A&T 89-97 William & Mary
William & Mary 86.4%North Carolina A&T 13.6%
74-87160.6William & Mary -12.8Drexel at Monmouth • FINAL17-16 • 19-15Final Score: Drexel 73-51 Monmouth
Monmouth 75.8%Drexel 24.2%
66-73138.8Monmouth -7.3Hofstra at Stony Brook • FINAL24-11 • 17-15Final Score: Hofstra 71-76 Stony Brook
Hofstra 71.2%Stony Brook 28.8%
74-69142.7Hofstra -4.6The Citadel at UNC Greensboro • FINAL11-22 • 15-19Final Score: The Citadel 66-69 UNC Greensboro
UNC Greensboro 85.1%The Citadel 14.9%
73-84156.3UNC Greensboro -11.0Old Dominion at Georgia Southern • FINAL12-21 • 21-16Final Score: Old Dominion 84-87 Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern 67.3%Old Dominion 32.7%
78-83161.0Georgia Southern -5.7West Georgia at Stetson • FINAL15-17 • 12-21Final Score: West Georgia 86-95 Stetson
Stetson 52.7%West Georgia 47.3%
78-80157.9Stetson -1.3Queens University at Florida Gulf Coast • FINAL21-14 • 16-18Final Score: Queens University 85-74 Florida Gulf Coast
Florida Gulf Coast 54.1%Queens University 45.9%
81-84165.6Florida Gulf Coast -2.7North Florida at North Alabama • FINAL7-25 • 9-21Final Score: North Florida 105-91 North Alabama
North Alabama 58.7%North Florida 41.3%
79-82161.1North Alabama -3.8UTEP at Delaware • FINAL11-20 • 10-21Final Score: UTEP 70-69 Delaware
UTEP 50.4%Delaware 49.6%
70-71141.7Delaware -0.8Jacksonville at Central Arkansas • FINAL12-20 • 22-12Final Score: Jacksonville 60-62 Central Arkansas
Central Arkansas 84.1%Jacksonville 15.9%
71-82153.4Central Arkansas -11.5Kansas City at South Dakota • FINAL4-27 • 16-16Final Score: Kansas City 83-99 South Dakota
South Dakota 92.6%Kansas City 7.4%
72-89160.2South Dakota -17.0St. Thomas-Minnesota at North Dakota • FINAL24-10 • 18-17Final Score: St. Thomas-Minnesota 91-80 North Dakota
St. Thomas-Minnesota 78.3%North Dakota 21.7%
82-75156.4St. Thomas-Minnesota -7.3Oakland at Milwaukee • FINAL16-16 • 12-20Final Score: Oakland 73-60 Milwaukee
Oakland 58.1%Milwaukee 41.9%
83-82164.6Oakland -1.1Charleston at Towson • FINAL21-11 • 19-15Final Score: Charleston 52-61 Towson
Towson 63.0%Charleston 37.0%
69-73142.1Towson -4.7Eastern Kentucky at Austin Peay • FINAL11-21 • 22-9Final Score: Eastern Kentucky 72-74 Austin Peay
Austin Peay 83.1%Eastern Kentucky 16.9%
75-87162.6Austin Peay -11.8Bellarmine at Lipscomb • FINAL13-19 • 18-13Final Score: Bellarmine 71-81 Lipscomb
Lipscomb 69.9%Bellarmine 30.1%
76-84159.8Lipscomb -7.5Eastern Illinois at Little Rock • FINAL13-20 • 12-20Final Score: Eastern Illinois 63-74 Little Rock
Little Rock 72.4%Eastern Illinois 27.6%
67-74140.9Little Rock -6.2California Baptist at Abilene Christian • FINAL25-9 • 14-19Final Score: California Baptist 74-58 Abilene Christian
California Baptist 77.9%Abilene Christian 22.1%
74-67141.4California Baptist -6.7Southern Indiana at Tennessee Tech • FINAL7-22 • 13-18Final Score: Southern Indiana 71-54 Tennessee Tech
Tennessee Tech 77.8%Southern Indiana 22.2%
67-75142.6Tennessee Tech -8.2SIU Edwardsville at UT Martin • FINAL19-13 • 22-11Final Score: SIU Edwardsville 59-65 UT Martin
UT Martin 65.3%SIU Edwardsville 34.7%
64-69132.4UT Martin -5.2Morehead State at Tennessee State • FINAL20-13 • 23-10Final Score: Morehead State 100-105 Tennessee State
Tennessee State 80.4%Morehead State 19.6%
72-83155.0Tennessee State -10.2Lindenwood at Southeast Missouri State • FINAL18-15 • 20-13Final Score: Lindenwood 88-76 Southeast Missouri State
Southeast Missouri State 74.0%Lindenwood 26.0%
71-78149.3Southeast Missouri State -6.3Tarleton State at Southern Utah • FINAL14-18 • 10-22Final Score: Tarleton State 105-106 Southern Utah
Southern Utah 51.6%Tarleton State 48.4%
77-77154.3Southern Utah -0.4Wichita State at Florida Atlantic • FINAL24-12 • 18-15Final Score: Wichita State 67-85 Florida Atlantic
Wichita State 68.6%Florida Atlantic 31.4%
78-75153.2Wichita State -3.1Cal State Fullerton at UC Davis • FINAL18-16 • 19-14Final Score: Cal State Fullerton 69-74 UC Davis
UC Davis 59.8%Cal State Fullerton 40.2%
79-83162.8UC Davis -4.0Idaho at Idaho State • FINAL21-15 • 13-20Final Score: Idaho 68-76 Idaho State
Idaho 57.5%Idaho State 42.5%
77-76152.7Idaho -1.5Eastern Washington at Weber State • FINAL14-19 • 16-16Final Score: Eastern Washington 80-91 Weber State
Weber State 56.8%Eastern Washington 43.2%
79-83161.8Weber State -4.2UT Arlington at Utah Tech • FINAL18-14 • 19-15Final Score: UT Arlington 56-52 Utah Tech
Utah Tech 56.3%UT Arlington 43.7%
71-73144.6Utah Tech -2.1UC Santa Barbara at Cal State Bakersfield • FINAL18-14 • 8-24Final Score: UC Santa Barbara 75-69 Cal State Bakersfield
UC Santa Barbara 83.6%Cal State Bakersfield 16.4%
83-73155.6UC Santa Barbara -10.0San Diego at Seattle U • FINAL12-21 • 21-14Final Score: San Diego 64-75 Seattle U
Seattle U 85.8%San Diego 14.2%
67-80146.8Seattle U -12.7UC Riverside at Long Beach State • FINAL10-22 • 10-22Final Score: UC Riverside 73-88 Long Beach State
Long Beach State 62.2%UC Riverside 37.8%
75-79154.2Long Beach State -4.5Hawai'i at Cal Poly • FINAL24-9 • 14-19Final Score: Hawai'i 86-66 Cal Poly
Hawai'i 59.2%Cal Poly 40.8%
83-80162.7Hawai'i -3.7Cal State Northridge at UC San Diego • FINAL20-14 • 23-11Final Score: Cal State Northridge 84-79 UC San Diego
UC San Diego 70.8%Cal State Northridge 29.2%
75-82156.5UC San Diego -6.9Northern Colorado at Portland State • FINAL20-12 • 20-11Final Score: Northern Colorado 73-76 Portland State
Portland State 53.0%Northern Colorado 47.0%
77-79155.6Portland State -2.6Northern Arizona at Sacramento State • FINAL10-22 • 10-21Final Score: Northern Arizona 69-83 Sacramento State
Sacramento State 76.7%Northern Arizona 23.3%
75-82156.7Sacramento State -7.7Toledo at Kent State • FINAL19-15 • 24-10Final Score: Toledo 84-87 Kent State
Kent State 51.3%Toledo 48.7%
82-84165.4Kent State -2.0THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
HOW TO READ IT
One projection. One permanent result.
MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.
ACCOUNTABILITY
Every prediction leaves a receipt.
MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.