#1 Duke Blue DevilsAtlantic Coast Conference
81.7122.295.2+26.9THE BOARD
The Numbers Behind the Noise.
MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.
SIGNATURE MODEL
Numbers Before Narratives.
MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.
THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
MMH POWER INDEX
2025-26 season • 366 Division I teamsTeam Ratings
TEAMMMHOFFDEFNET
#2 Michigan WolverinesBig Ten Conference
80.9122.397+25.2#3 Arizona WildcatsBig 12 Conference
79.9120.396.9+23.4#4 Florida GatorsSoutheastern Conference
79.7120.999.3+21.7#5 Illinois Fighting IlliniBig Ten Conference
76.5125103.3+21.7#6 Gonzaga BulldogsWest Coast Conference
76.4119.794+25.7#7 Houston CougarsBig 12 Conference
76118.495.9+22.5#8 Iowa State CyclonesBig 12 Conference
75.9119.396+23.3#9 Purdue BoilermakersBig Ten Conference
73.2124.8107.8+17#10 Saint Mary's GaelsWest Coast Conference
70.7116.797.4+19.3#11 St. John's Red StormBig East Conference
70.3114.497.6+16.8#12 UConn HuskiesBig East Conference
70.2116.398.4+17.9#13 Michigan State SpartansBig Ten Conference
69.8117101.5+15.5#14 Alabama Crimson TideSoutheastern Conference
69.5121.6111.2+10.4#15 Arkansas RazorbacksSoutheastern Conference
69.3122.2109.8+12.4#16 High Point PanthersBig South Conference
69123.898.3+25.5#17 Virginia CavaliersAtlantic Coast Conference
68.9119101.8+17.2#18 Vanderbilt CommodoresSoutheastern Conference
68.9120.9105.7+15.2#19 South Florida BullsAmerican Conference
68.8117.3101.6+15.7#20 Tennessee VolunteersSoutheastern Conference
68.6115.8102.1+13.6#21 Louisville CardinalsAtlantic Coast Conference
67.1118.6102.2+16.5#22 Nebraska CornhuskersBig Ten Conference
67114.498.3+16.1#23 Saint Louis BillikensAtlantic 10 Conference
66.7120.897.6+23.2#24 McNeese CowboysSouthland Conference
66.7117.498.3+19.1#25 Akron ZipsMid-American Conference
65.8122.7103.3+19.4MMH MATCHUPS
Games
MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD
Wisconsin at Penn State • FINAL24-11 • 12-20Final Score: Wisconsin 98-71 Penn State
Wisconsin 87.7%Penn State 12.3%
85-74159.5Wisconsin -11.4South Alabama at James Madison • FINAL21-12 • 18-15Final Score: South Alabama 90-83 James Madison
James Madison 64.8%South Alabama 35.2%
72-76147.5James Madison -4.0South Florida at UAB • FINAL25-9 • 20-12Final Score: South Florida 82-69 UAB
South Florida 69.4%UAB 30.6%
83-79162.0South Florida -4.3Merrimack at Iona • FINAL23-11 • 18-14Final Score: Merrimack 60-61 Iona
Merrimack 56.2%Iona 43.8%
70-70140.8Iona -0.0Milwaukee at Robert Morris • FINAL12-20 • 22-11Final Score: Milwaukee 76-88 Robert Morris
Robert Morris 85.3%Milwaukee 14.7%
71-84155.3Robert Morris -12.4Quinnipiac at Mount St. Mary's • FINAL19-13 • 15-17Final Score: Quinnipiac 77-62 Mount St. Mary's
Quinnipiac 60.5%Mount St. Mary's 39.5%
72-70142.9Quinnipiac -2.0Niagara at Fairfield • FINAL8-22 • 21-13Final Score: Niagara 61-62 Fairfield
Fairfield 89.1%Niagara 10.9%
63-77140.1Fairfield -14.3Canisius at Sacred Heart • FINAL10-21 • 14-19Final Score: Canisius 66-69 Sacred Heart
Sacred Heart 79.7%Canisius 20.3%
67-76142.6Sacred Heart -9.4Marist at Siena • FINAL19-12 • 23-12Final Score: Marist 50-69 Siena
Siena 69.4%Marist 30.6%
64-69133.2Siena -5.1UNC Wilmington at William & Mary • FINAL27-7 • 20-12Final Score: UNC Wilmington 70-77 William & Mary
UNC Wilmington 52.3%William & Mary 47.7%
77-78155.2William & Mary -0.3Campbell at Charleston • FINAL15-18 • 21-11Final Score: Campbell 83-87 Charleston
Charleston 69.2%Campbell 30.8%
75-81155.4Charleston -6.2Towson at Elon • FINAL19-15 • 14-18Final Score: Towson 72-59 Elon
Towson 60.8%Elon 39.2%
74-72146.4Towson -1.5Monmouth at Hampton • FINAL19-15 • 13-19Final Score: Monmouth 63-65 Hampton
Monmouth 62.1%Hampton 37.9%
72-70142.2Monmouth -1.4Hofstra at North Carolina A&T • FINAL24-11 • 11-19Final Score: Hofstra 78-79 North Carolina A&T
Hofstra 80.9%North Carolina A&T 19.1%
79-70149.0Hofstra -8.4Stony Brook at Northeastern • FINAL17-15 • 8-23Final Score: Stony Brook 95-80 Northeastern
Stony Brook 53.1%Northeastern 46.9%
76-75151.0Stony Brook -0.8Southern Miss at Georgia State • FINAL19-16 • 10-22Final Score: Southern Miss 62-69 Georgia State
Southern Miss 67.2%Georgia State 32.8%
76-72148.1Southern Miss -3.1Arkansas State at Georgia Southern • FINAL20-12 • 21-16Final Score: Arkansas State 85-68 Georgia Southern
Arkansas State 61.0%Georgia Southern 39.0%
84-81164.8Arkansas State -2.2Texas State at Coastal Carolina • FINAL19-13 • 19-13Final Score: Texas State 70-72 Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina 55.5%Texas State 44.5%
72-74146.3Coastal Carolina -2.5Eastern Kentucky at North Florida • FINAL11-21 • 7-25Final Score: Eastern Kentucky 85-87 North Florida
Eastern Kentucky 61.6%North Florida 38.4%
87-84170.7Eastern Kentucky -2.8Bellarmine at Jacksonville • FINAL13-19 • 12-20Final Score: Bellarmine 77-70 Jacksonville
Jacksonville 59.0%Bellarmine 41.0%
76-81157.1Jacksonville -4.2Western Illinois at Morehead State • FINAL5-26 • 20-13Final Score: Western Illinois 66-71 Morehead State
Morehead State 94.8%Western Illinois 5.2%
64-83146.9Morehead State -18.5North Dakota at Oral Roberts • FINAL18-17 • 10-23Final Score: North Dakota 79-62 Oral Roberts
Oral Roberts 57.4%North Dakota 42.6%
76-79154.9Oral Roberts -2.2Tennessee State at SIU Edwardsville • FINAL23-10 • 19-13Final Score: Tennessee State 66-74 SIU Edwardsville
Tennessee State 55.9%SIU Edwardsville 44.1%
73-73145.8SIU Edwardsville -0.4Little Rock at Southeast Missouri State • FINAL12-20 • 20-13Final Score: Little Rock 65-70 Southeast Missouri State
Southeast Missouri State 79.5%Little Rock 20.5%
68-78145.8Southeast Missouri State -10.0Tennessee Tech at Lindenwood • FINAL13-18 • 18-15Final Score: Tennessee Tech 68-89 Lindenwood
Lindenwood 69.4%Tennessee Tech 30.6%
72-79151.0Lindenwood -7.5Eastern Illinois at Southern Indiana • FINAL13-20 • 7-22Final Score: Eastern Illinois 59-51 Southern Indiana
Southern Indiana 55.5%Eastern Illinois 44.5%
67-69136.3Southern Indiana -2.4South Dakota State at St. Thomas-Minnesota • FINAL14-18 • 24-10Final Score: South Dakota State 69-74 St. Thomas-Minnesota
St. Thomas-Minnesota 83.8%South Dakota State 16.2%
71-82153.0St. Thomas-Minnesota -11.3North Dakota State at Denver • FINAL27-8 • 15-17Final Score: North Dakota State 82-77 Denver
North Dakota State 64.4%Denver 35.6%
83-79162.1North Dakota State -4.3Cal Poly at UC Santa Barbara • FINAL14-19 • 18-14Final Score: Cal Poly 67-107 UC Santa Barbara
UC Santa Barbara 74.2%Cal Poly 25.8%
77-86162.8UC Santa Barbara -8.8UC San Diego at UC Davis • FINAL23-11 • 19-14Final Score: UC San Diego 80-74 UC Davis
UC San Diego 51.2%UC Davis 48.8%
75-76151.2UC Davis -0.5Weber State at Montana • FINAL16-16 • 18-16Final Score: Weber State 65-81 Montana
Weber State 50.6%Montana 49.4%
79-80158.6Montana -1.3Idaho State at Montana State • FINAL13-20 • 18-14Final Score: Idaho State 62-74 Montana State
Montana State 79.7%Idaho State 20.3%
71-81152.0Montana State -10.2Sacramento State at Idaho • FINAL10-21 • 21-15Final Score: Sacramento State 76-86 Idaho
Idaho 83.8%Sacramento State 16.2%
73-85158.3Idaho -12.1Portland State at Eastern Washington • FINAL20-11 • 14-19Final Score: Portland State 65-61 Eastern Washington
Eastern Washington 67.8%Portland State 32.2%
76-79154.5Eastern Washington -3.2Missouri State at New Mexico State • FINAL16-18 • 16-16Final Score: Missouri State 84-75 New Mexico State
New Mexico State 62.7%Missouri State 37.3%
72-77149.3New Mexico State -4.9Florida International at UTEP • FINAL15-17 • 11-20Final Score: Florida International 77-83 UTEP
Florida International 54.0%UTEP 46.0%
76-76152.1Florida International -0.6Long Beach State at Cal State Fullerton • FINAL10-22 • 18-16Final Score: Long Beach State 61-71 Cal State Fullerton
Cal State Fullerton 80.7%Long Beach State 19.3%
77-86162.9Cal State Fullerton -9.5UC Irvine at UC Riverside • FINAL23-12 • 10-22Final Score: UC Irvine 80-66 UC Riverside
UC Irvine 80.3%UC Riverside 19.7%
80-70150.0UC Irvine -9.1Cal State Bakersfield at Hawai'i • FINAL8-24 • 24-9Final Score: Cal State Bakersfield 71-98 Hawai'i
Hawai'i 95.2%Cal State Bakersfield 4.8%
67-88155.5Hawai'i -21.3Saint Louis at St. Bonaventure • FINAL29-6 • 17-17Final Score: Saint Louis 97-62 St. Bonaventure
Saint Louis 73.9%St. Bonaventure 26.1%
83-75157.3Saint Louis -7.7Indiana at Rutgers • FINAL18-14 • 13-20Final Score: Indiana 82-59 Rutgers
Indiana 70.3%Rutgers 29.7%
78-72149.7Indiana -5.7Mercyhurst at New Haven • FINAL17-17 • 14-17Final Score: Mercyhurst 61-57 New Haven
Mercyhurst 54.5%New Haven 45.5%
66-66132.0Mercyhurst -0.2UL Monroe at App State • FINAL4-28 • 19-13Final Score: UL Monroe 43-59 App State
App State 95.7%UL Monroe 4.3%
64-85148.4App State -21.4Kennesaw State at Louisiana Tech • FINAL21-14 • 20-14Final Score: Kennesaw State 76-82 Louisiana Tech
Kennesaw State 52.3%Louisiana Tech 47.7%
74-74147.9Louisiana Tech -0.7Furman at UNC Greensboro • FINAL22-13 • 15-19Final Score: Furman 89-66 UNC Greensboro
Furman 57.3%UNC Greensboro 42.7%
79-77155.8Furman -2.2Stetson at Austin Peay • FINAL12-21 • 22-9Final Score: Stetson 65-73 Austin Peay
Austin Peay 89.6%Stetson 10.4%
71-86157.1Austin Peay -15.9Florida Gulf Coast at Lipscomb • FINAL16-18 • 18-13Final Score: Florida Gulf Coast 71-86 Lipscomb
Lipscomb 60.6%Florida Gulf Coast 39.4%
75-79154.7Lipscomb -4.1East Carolina at North Texas • FINAL11-20 • 19-14Final Score: East Carolina 63-59 North Texas
North Texas 80.0%East Carolina 20.0%
67-77144.1North Texas -10.8THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
1–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
HOW TO READ IT
One projection. One permanent result.
MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.
ACCOUNTABILITY
Every prediction leaves a receipt.
MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.