THE BOARD
The Numbers Behind the Noise.
MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.
SIGNATURE MODEL
Numbers Before Narratives.
MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.
THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
0–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
MMH POWER INDEX
2025-26 season • 365 Division I teamsTeam Ratings
MMH MATCHUPS
Games
MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD
North Florida at Jacksonville • FINAL7-25 • 12-20Final Score: North Florida 50-62 Jacksonville
Jacksonville 79.0%North Florida 21.0%
75-86160.8Jacksonville -10.7Saint Peter's at Mount St. Mary's • FINAL17-12 • 15-17Final Score: Saint Peter's 70-65 Mount St. Mary's
Saint Peter's 50.9%Mount St. Mary's 49.1%
69-69137.9Mount St. Mary's -0.1Marist at Manhattan • FINAL19-12 • 12-20Final Score: Marist 57-50 Manhattan
Marist 68.9%Manhattan 31.1%
75-69143.4Marist -5.9Iona at Rider • FINAL18-14 • 4-25Final Score: Iona 75-78 Rider
Iona 81.4%Rider 18.6%
76-67143.6Iona -9.3Niagara at Canisius • FINAL8-22 • 10-21Final Score: Niagara 59-69 Canisius
Canisius 57.4%Niagara 42.6%
65-68132.5Canisius -3.1Pennsylvania at Dartmouth • FINAL18-12 • 11-16Final Score: Pennsylvania 82-69 Dartmouth
Pennsylvania 68.6%Dartmouth 31.4%
78-75153.8Pennsylvania -3.2Toledo at Bowling Green • FINAL19-15 • 18-14Final Score: Toledo 68-76 Bowling Green
Bowling Green 51.3%Toledo 48.7%
78-81158.5Bowling Green -3.5Purdue Fort Wayne at Green Bay • FINAL17-15 • 18-15Final Score: Purdue Fort Wayne 85-59 Green Bay
Green Bay 79.1%Purdue Fort Wayne 20.9%
74-82155.2Green Bay -7.9Yale at Cornell • FINAL23-7 • 15-13Final Score: Yale 62-65 Cornell
Yale 62.9%Cornell 37.1%
83-80163.3Yale -2.6Princeton at Harvard • FINAL9-20 • 17-12Final Score: Princeton 66-53 Harvard
Harvard 82.1%Princeton 17.9%
63-74137.8Harvard -10.9Brown at Columbia • FINAL9-18 • 16-12Final Score: Brown 66-64 Columbia
Columbia 86.4%Brown 13.6%
67-79145.1Columbia -12.1Youngstown State at Milwaukee • FINAL14-17 • 12-20Final Score: Youngstown State 84-80 Milwaukee
Milwaukee 58.2%Youngstown State 41.8%
76-77153.1Milwaukee -1.5Duquesne at Fordham • FINAL18-15 • 17-15Final Score: Duquesne 67-79 Fordham
Fordham 61.4%Duquesne 38.6%
70-75144.8Fordham -4.3Fairfield at Quinnipiac • FINAL21-13 • 19-13Final Score: Fairfield 85-81 Quinnipiac
Quinnipiac 64.8%Fairfield 35.2%
71-76147.7Quinnipiac -4.9Nevada at San José State • FINAL24-13 • 9-24Final Score: Nevada 84-63 San José State
Nevada 81.4%San José State 18.6%
80-71150.8Nevada -9.0Houston at Baylor • FINAL29-7 • 16-17Final Score: Houston 82-76 Baylor
Houston 80.2%Baylor 19.8%
79-71150.2Houston -8.1Washington at Arizona • FINAL16-17 • 36-3Final Score: Washington 75-91 Arizona
Arizona 95.5%Washington 4.5%
68-88155.9Arizona -20.8West Virginia at Iowa State • FINAL21-14 • 28-8Final Score: West Virginia 64-71 Iowa State
Iowa State 93.5%West Virginia 6.5%
62-80141.8Iowa State -17.9Duke at Wake Forest • FINAL35-3 • 18-17Final Score: Duke 79-83 Wake Forest
Duke 89.8%Wake Forest 10.2%
83-69152.7Duke -13.8Texas at Kansas • FINAL21-15 • 24-11Final Score: Texas 67-86 Kansas
Kansas 63.5%Texas 36.5%
75-79153.9Kansas -4.8North Carolina at Virginia • FINAL24-9 • 30-6Final Score: North Carolina 54-44 Virginia
Virginia 71.5%North Carolina 28.5%
73-80152.4Virginia -7.1Iowa at Illinois • FINAL24-13 • 28-9Final Score: Iowa 85-95 Illinois
Illinois 86.8%Iowa 13.2%
67-80147.4Illinois -12.9Alabama at Kentucky • FINAL24-10 • 22-14Final Score: Alabama 95-117 Kentucky
Alabama 52.9%Kentucky 47.1%
85-85169.7Kentucky -0.7Auburn at Georgia • FINAL21-16 • 22-11Final Score: Auburn 97-76 Georgia
Georgia 61.7%Auburn 38.3%
83-89171.4Georgia -5.9South Carolina at Ole Miss • FINAL13-19 • 15-20Final Score: South Carolina 72-59 Ole Miss
Ole Miss 74.0%South Carolina 26.0%
74-81154.2Ole Miss -7.1Texas Tech at UCF • FINAL23-11 • 21-12Final Score: Texas Tech 61-75 UCF
Texas Tech 61.3%UCF 38.7%
81-79159.6Texas Tech -2.2Vanderbilt at Florida • FINAL27-9 • 27-8Final Score: Vanderbilt 64-77 Florida
Florida 84.7%Vanderbilt 15.3%
76-88164.0Florida -11.6BYU at Kansas State • FINAL23-12 • 12-20Final Score: BYU 74-84 Kansas State
BYU 79.6%Kansas State 20.4%
86-78164.7BYU -8.2Notre Dame at Syracuse • FINAL13-17 • 15-16Final Score: Notre Dame 85-88 Syracuse
Syracuse 68.7%Notre Dame 31.3%
73-79151.7Syracuse -6.3Hampton at Northeastern • FINAL13-19 • 8-23Final Score: Hampton 62-70 Northeastern
Northeastern 56.3%Hampton 43.7%
74-75149.6Northeastern -1.2Charleston at Towson • FINAL21-11 • 19-15Final Score: Charleston 72-56 Towson
Towson 63.0%Charleston 37.0%
69-73142.1Towson -4.7Indiana at Penn State • FINAL18-14 • 12-20Final Score: Indiana 74-83 Penn State
Indiana 77.9%Penn State 22.1%
81-73154.2Indiana -8.1Missouri at Arkansas • FINAL20-13 • 28-9Final Score: Missouri 73-88 Arkansas
Arkansas 86.5%Missouri 13.5%
78-90168.0Arkansas -12.6William & Mary at Stony Brook • FINAL20-12 • 17-15Final Score: William & Mary 62-75 Stony Brook
William & Mary 57.3%Stony Brook 42.7%
78-77154.2William & Mary -0.9Western Carolina at VMI • FINAL15-16 • 5-26Final Score: Western Carolina 84-51 VMI
Western Carolina 89.6%VMI 10.4%
83-71154.0Western Carolina -11.7Chattanooga at The Citadel • FINAL13-19 • 11-22Final Score: Chattanooga 62-71 The Citadel
Chattanooga 65.4%The Citadel 34.6%
78-74151.9Chattanooga -3.7UMBC at New Hampshire • FINAL24-8 • 9-21Final Score: UMBC 86-68 New Hampshire
UMBC 90.8%New Hampshire 9.2%
77-64141.2UMBC -13.3UAlbany at UMass Lowell • FINAL11-20 • 15-18Final Score: UAlbany 95-104 UMass Lowell
UMass Lowell 67.3%UAlbany 32.7%
71-75146.1UMass Lowell -4.8Central Arkansas at Eastern Kentucky • FINAL22-12 • 11-21Final Score: Central Arkansas 82-95 Eastern Kentucky
Central Arkansas 61.8%Eastern Kentucky 38.2%
83-80163.1Central Arkansas -3.0Boston College at NC State • FINAL11-20 • 20-14Final Score: Boston College 70-81 NC State
NC State 89.8%Boston College 10.2%
68-83150.2NC State -15.2Lehigh at Lafayette • FINAL18-17 • 11-21Final Score: Lehigh 71-63 Lafayette
Lehigh 52.0%Lafayette 48.0%
73-73146.1Lafayette -0.1East Carolina at Rice • FINAL11-20 • 13-18Final Score: East Carolina 52-70 Rice
Rice 64.5%East Carolina 35.5%
72-78150.5Rice -6.0South Carolina Upstate at Winthrop • FINAL13-19 • 23-11Final Score: South Carolina Upstate 74-83 Winthrop
Winthrop 87.1%South Carolina Upstate 12.9%
72-85156.5Winthrop -13.2Longwood at Radford • FINAL16-16 • 16-16Final Score: Longwood 82-88 Radford
Radford 64.8%Longwood 35.2%
78-82159.5Radford -4.2Gardner-Webb at UNC Asheville • FINAL4-29 • 15-17Final Score: Gardner-Webb 78-77 UNC Asheville
UNC Asheville 94.3%Gardner-Webb 5.7%
66-86152.0UNC Asheville -20.7High Point at Charleston Southern • FINAL31-5 • 15-17Final Score: High Point 74-59 Charleston Southern
High Point 86.8%Charleston Southern 13.2%
90-78167.3High Point -12.1North Carolina A&T at Monmouth • FINAL11-19 • 19-15Final Score: North Carolina A&T 67-83 Monmouth
Monmouth 84.1%North Carolina A&T 15.9%
69-81149.8Monmouth -11.4Fairleigh Dickinson at Le Moyne • FINAL11-21 • 15-17Final Score: Fairleigh Dickinson 68-58 Le Moyne
Le Moyne 74.2%Fairleigh Dickinson 25.8%
67-75141.7Le Moyne -7.4Central Connecticut at Sacred Heart • FINAL18-12 • 14-19Final Score: Central Connecticut 68-67 Sacred Heart
Sacred Heart 54.9%Central Connecticut 45.1%
74-76149.8Sacred Heart -1.6Saint Francis at Stonehill • FINAL7-24 • 12-21Final Score: Saint Francis 63-72 Stonehill
Stonehill 74.8%Saint Francis 25.2%
67-77144.0Stonehill -9.4Eastern Michigan at Ball State • FINAL10-21 • 12-19Final Score: Eastern Michigan 58-56 Ball State
Ball State 56.8%Eastern Michigan 43.2%
69-72140.3Ball State -2.9Wofford at Furman • FINAL19-13 • 22-13Final Score: Wofford 67-82 Furman
Furman 75.4%Wofford 24.6%
73-81153.8Furman -8.5Texas State at Georgia State • FINAL19-13 • 10-22Final Score: Texas State 68-59 Georgia State
Texas State 65.9%Georgia State 34.1%
75-71145.7Texas State -3.4NJIT at Maine • FINAL16-17 • 8-24Final Score: NJIT 58-68 Maine
Maine 54.6%NJIT 45.4%
66-68134.0Maine -2.5Oral Roberts at South Dakota • FINAL10-23 • 16-16Final Score: Oral Roberts 76-77 South Dakota
South Dakota 67.5%Oral Roberts 32.5%
76-82158.6South Dakota -6.0North Dakota at North Dakota State • FINAL18-17 • 27-8Final Score: North Dakota 68-73 North Dakota State
North Dakota State 90.1%North Dakota 9.9%
69-85154.7North Dakota State -15.7Kennesaw State at Stetson • FINAL21-14 • 12-21Final Score: Kennesaw State 72-84 Stetson
Kennesaw State 77.6%Stetson 22.4%
84-76159.6Kennesaw State -8.5St. Bonaventure at Massachusetts • FINAL17-17 • 17-16Final Score: St. Bonaventure 75-67 Massachusetts
Massachusetts 59.0%St. Bonaventure 41.0%
77-81157.5Massachusetts -3.6Buffalo at Western Michigan • FINAL17-15 • 10-21Final Score: Buffalo 72-91 Western Michigan
Buffalo 56.5%Western Michigan 43.5%
79-78157.2Buffalo -1.2Cincinnati at TCU • FINAL18-15 • 23-12Final Score: Cincinnati 57-75 TCU
TCU 57.7%Cincinnati 42.3%
71-74145.8TCU -3.0George Washington at Saint Louis • FINAL19-16 • 29-6Final Score: George Washington 91-96 Saint Louis
Saint Louis 78.2%George Washington 21.8%
75-86160.2Saint Louis -10.8East Tennessee State at Samford • FINAL23-11 • 18-14Final Score: East Tennessee State 71-87 Samford
Samford 53.5%East Tennessee State 46.5%
76-77152.6Samford -0.6St. Thomas-Minnesota at South Dakota State • FINAL24-10 • 14-18Final Score: St. Thomas-Minnesota 72-77 South Dakota State
St. Thomas-Minnesota 65.2%South Dakota State 34.8%
78-75153.0St. Thomas-Minnesota -3.3Utah Tech at UT Arlington • FINAL19-15 • 18-14Final Score: Utah Tech 78-89 UT Arlington
UT Arlington 68.3%Utah Tech 31.7%
69-75144.6UT Arlington -6.2Central Michigan at Miami (OH) • FINAL10-21 • 32-2Final Score: Central Michigan 60-88 Miami (OH)
Miami (OH) 91.4%Central Michigan 8.6%
72-90161.5Miami (OH) -18.2Troy at UL Monroe • FINAL22-12 • 4-28Final Score: Troy 84-78 UL Monroe
Troy 88.9%UL Monroe 11.1%
86-72157.5Troy -14.2South Alabama at Arkansas State • FINAL21-12 • 20-12Final Score: South Alabama 78-95 Arkansas State
Arkansas State 77.0%South Alabama 23.0%
73-82154.7Arkansas State -8.5Morgan State at Howard • FINAL14-16 • 24-11Final Score: Morgan State 72-78 Howard
Howard 93.7%Morgan State 6.3%
67-85152.3Howard -18.6Maryland Eastern Shore at North Carolina Central • FINAL9-23 • 14-18Final Score: Maryland Eastern Shore 55-88 North Carolina Central
North Carolina Central 70.6%Maryland Eastern Shore 29.4%
67-74141.1North Carolina Central -6.3Delaware State at South Carolina State • FINAL8-22 • 10-22Final Score: Delaware State 62-69 South Carolina State
South Carolina State 68.7%Delaware State 31.3%
66-70135.5South Carolina State -4.2Georgia Tech at Miami • FINAL11-20 • 26-9Final Score: Georgia Tech 80-76 Miami
Miami 95.7%Georgia Tech 4.3%
67-88154.6Miami -20.7Oklahoma at Oklahoma State • FINAL21-16 • 20-15Final Score: Oklahoma 84-82 Oklahoma State
Oklahoma 61.0%Oklahoma State 39.0%
85-84169.2Oklahoma -1.6UTSA at North Texas • FINAL5-25 • 19-14Final Score: UTSA 64-62 North Texas
North Texas 94.9%UTSA 5.1%
62-83144.8North Texas -20.5Valparaiso at Murray State • FINAL18-15 • 20-13Final Score: Valparaiso 68-80 Murray State
Murray State 71.5%Valparaiso 28.5%
75-81156.0Murray State -7.0Alabama State at Florida A&M • FINAL10-22 • 14-16Final Score: Alabama State 65-73 Florida A&M
Florida A&M 66.0%Alabama State 34.0%
72-77148.6Florida A&M -4.9Air Force at New Mexico • FINAL3-29 • 26-11Final Score: Air Force 78-77 New Mexico
New Mexico 99.0%Air Force 1.0%
57-91147.9New Mexico -34.7Norfolk State at Coppin State • FINAL15-17 • 7-24Final Score: Norfolk State 68-66 Coppin State
Norfolk State 80.3%Coppin State 19.7%
80-70149.5Norfolk State -10.1Eastern Illinois at Tennessee Tech • FINAL13-20 • 13-18Final Score: Eastern Illinois 67-75 Tennessee Tech
Tennessee Tech 72.4%Eastern Illinois 27.6%
68-75142.8Tennessee Tech -6.6Jackson State at Alcorn State • FINAL12-21 • 9-23Final Score: Jackson State 73-87 Alcorn State
Alcorn State 58.2%Jackson State 41.8%
75-78152.7Alcorn State -3.3East Texas A&M at Nicholls • FINAL11-21 • 14-19Final Score: East Texas A&M 70-85 Nicholls
Nicholls 74.8%East Texas A&M 25.2%
70-77146.9Nicholls -7.4North Alabama at Bellarmine • FINAL9-21 • 13-19Final Score: North Alabama 70-82 Bellarmine
Bellarmine 83.5%North Alabama 16.5%
73-84157.4Bellarmine -10.8Alabama A&M at Bethune-Cookman • FINAL18-15 • 17-15Final Score: Alabama A&M 61-63 Bethune-Cookman
Bethune-Cookman 67.3%Alabama A&M 32.7%
73-78150.1Bethune-Cookman -5.0Stephen F. Austin at Utah Valley • FINAL28-6 • 25-9Final Score: Stephen F. Austin 62-71 Utah Valley
Utah Valley 59.8%Stephen F. Austin 40.2%
71-76147.0Utah Valley -4.1Grand Canyon at Abilene Christian • FINAL20-12 • 14-19Final Score: Grand Canyon 73-79 Abilene Christian
Grand Canyon 80.7%Abilene Christian 19.3%
76-68144.0Grand Canyon -8.2UC Irvine at UC San Diego • FINAL23-12 • 23-11Final Score: UC Irvine 88-92 UC San Diego
UC Irvine 51.2%UC San Diego 48.8%
73-74147.0UC San Diego -0.1Idaho at Northern Arizona • FINAL21-15 • 10-22Final Score: Idaho 86-76 Northern Arizona
Idaho 78.7%Northern Arizona 21.3%
79-72151.0Idaho -7.9George Mason at Loyola Chicago • FINAL23-10 • 9-24Final Score: George Mason 59-80 Loyola Chicago
George Mason 80.9%Loyola Chicago 19.1%
76-66141.8George Mason -9.5Ohio at Northern Illinois • FINAL15-17 • 9-21Final Score: Ohio 80-59 Northern Illinois
Ohio 83.0%Northern Illinois 17.0%
81-73154.3Ohio -8.1UNC Greensboro at Mercer • FINAL15-19 • 19-13Final Score: UNC Greensboro 72-86 Mercer
Mercer 79.1%UNC Greensboro 20.9%
76-87162.8Mercer -11.1Southern Indiana at Western Illinois • FINAL7-22 • 5-26Final Score: Southern Indiana 76-82 Western Illinois
Southern Indiana 68.2%Western Illinois 31.8%
72-67138.9Southern Indiana -4.3SIU Edwardsville at Tennessee State • FINAL19-13 • 23-10Final Score: SIU Edwardsville 71-76 Tennessee State
Tennessee State 77.8%SIU Edwardsville 22.2%
69-77145.8Tennessee State -7.9Little Rock at Lindenwood • FINAL12-20 • 18-15Final Score: Little Rock 82-73 Lindenwood
Lindenwood 69.4%Little Rock 30.6%
70-79149.1Lindenwood -8.1New Orleans at SE Louisiana • FINAL16-18 • 9-21Final Score: New Orleans 67-77 SE Louisiana
New Orleans 60.5%SE Louisiana 39.5%
71-70141.9New Orleans -1.1Northwestern State at Houston Christian • FINAL10-21 • 12-20Final Score: Northwestern State 86-73 Houston Christian
Houston Christian 57.7%Northwestern State 42.3%
67-69136.2Houston Christian -2.6UT Martin at Southeast Missouri State • FINAL22-11 • 20-13Final Score: UT Martin 82-72 Southeast Missouri State
Southeast Missouri State 67.0%UT Martin 33.0%
67-71138.3Southeast Missouri State -4.0Oregon State at Stanford • FINAL17-16 • 20-13Final Score: Oregon State 85-73 Stanford
Stanford 84.6%Oregon State 15.4%
68-80148.4Stanford -11.7James Madison at Georgia Southern • FINAL18-15 • 21-16Final Score: James Madison 80-74 Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern 53.8%James Madison 46.2%
78-80157.5Georgia Southern -2.2Incarnate Word at McNeese • FINAL12-19 • 27-6Final Score: Incarnate Word 71-87 McNeese
McNeese 95.1%Incarnate Word 4.9%
63-83146.0McNeese -19.7California Baptist at Tarleton State • FINAL25-9 • 14-18Final Score: California Baptist 65-82 Tarleton State
California Baptist 73.4%Tarleton State 26.6%
75-70144.6California Baptist -4.7Lipscomb at Austin Peay • FINAL18-13 • 22-9Final Score: Lipscomb 90-85 Austin Peay
Austin Peay 78.2%Lipscomb 21.8%
73-82155.4Austin Peay -9.4Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh • FINAL19-13 • 13-20Final Score: Virginia Tech 64-79 Pittsburgh
Virginia Tech 57.3%Pittsburgh 42.7%
75-74149.4Virginia Tech -1.4Drake at Northern Iowa • FINAL14-20 • 23-13Final Score: Drake 77-91 Northern Iowa
Northern Iowa 89.4%Drake 10.6%
63-77140.1Northern Iowa -14.3Missouri State at Belmont • FINAL16-18 • 26-6Final Score: Missouri State 78-93 Belmont
Belmont 84.6%Missouri State 15.4%
71-84155.6Belmont -12.6Georgetown at DePaul • FINAL13-18 • 16-16Final Score: Georgetown 77-76 DePaul
DePaul 54.1%Georgetown 45.9%
66-69134.8DePaul -2.7Davidson at Richmond • FINAL20-14 • 15-17Final Score: Davidson 63-66 Richmond
Richmond 54.9%Davidson 45.1%
72-74146.1Richmond -2.2Yale at Columbia • FINAL23-7 • 16-12Final Score: Yale 84-76 Columbia
Yale 73.0%Columbia 27.0%
77-72149.0Yale -4.4Princeton at Dartmouth • FINAL9-20 • 11-16Final Score: Princeton 68-56 Dartmouth
Dartmouth 56.6%Princeton 43.4%
72-75147.6Dartmouth -3.3App State at Marshall • FINAL19-13 • 19-13Final Score: App State 65-58 Marshall
Marshall 56.6%App State 43.4%
74-76150.0Marshall -2.4Brown at Cornell • FINAL9-18 • 15-13Final Score: Brown 78-74 Cornell
Cornell 91.0%Brown 9.0%
73-87159.3Cornell -13.9UT Rio Grande Valley at Seattle U • FINAL19-14 • 21-14Final Score: UT Rio Grande Valley 56-84 Seattle U
Seattle U 50.5%UT Rio Grande Valley 49.5%
71-72142.6Seattle U -1.5Jacksonville State at Florida International • FINAL15-17 • 15-17Final Score: Jacksonville State 77-75 Florida International
Florida International 60.3%Jacksonville State 39.7%
74-78151.7Florida International -3.4Grambling at Southern • FINAL14-19 • 17-17Final Score: Grambling 63-57 Southern
Southern 70.2%Grambling 29.8%
72-78150.8Southern -5.9Prairie View A&M at Arkansas-Pine Bluff • FINAL19-18 • 13-19Final Score: Prairie View A&M 59-72 Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54.6%Prairie View A&M 45.4%
80-81160.1Arkansas-Pine Bluff -1.0THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
0–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
HOW TO READ IT
One projection. One permanent result.
MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.
ACCOUNTABILITY
Every prediction leaves a receipt.
MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.