THE BOARD
The Numbers Behind the Noise.
MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.
SIGNATURE MODEL
Numbers Before Narratives.
MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.
THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
0–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
MMH POWER INDEX
2025-26 season • 365 Division I teamsTeam Ratings
MMH MATCHUPS
Games
MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD
North Carolina Central at Kansas • FINAL14-18 • 24-11Final Score: North Carolina Central 56-99 Kansas
Kansas 96.9%North Carolina Central 3.1%
62-85146.7Kansas -22.5Dartmouth at Duke • FINAL11-16 • 35-3Final Score: Dartmouth 54-92 Duke
Duke 99.0%Dartmouth 1.0%
59-91150.7Duke -32.2James Madison at Michigan State • FINAL18-15 • 27-8Final Score: James Madison 79-76 Michigan State
Michigan State 92.1%James Madison 7.9%
66-83149.2Michigan State -17.1Northern Illinois at Marquette • FINAL9-21 • 12-20Final Score: Northern Illinois 70-92 Marquette
Marquette 95.6%Northern Illinois 4.4%
66-85150.9Marquette -19.1UL Monroe at Houston • FINAL4-28 • 29-7Final Score: UL Monroe 31-84 Houston
Houston 99.0%UL Monroe 1.0%
56-93149.5Houston -37.1Morgan State at Arizona • FINAL14-16 • 36-3Final Score: Morgan State 59-122 Arizona
Arizona 99.0%Morgan State 1.0%
62-96157.6Arizona -34.6NJIT at Miami • FINAL16-17 • 26-9Final Score: NJIT 60-101 Miami
Miami 97.1%NJIT 2.9%
62-86147.6Miami -23.8Alcorn State at Arkansas • FINAL9-23 • 28-9Final Score: Alcorn State 59-93 Arkansas
Arkansas 99.0%Alcorn State 1.0%
65-98163.2Arkansas -33.4East Texas A&M at Texas A&M • FINAL11-21 • 20-12Final Score: East Texas A&M 46-78 Texas A&M
Texas A&M 93.7%East Texas A&M 6.3%
67-85151.9Texas A&M -17.9New Mexico State at Kentucky • FINAL16-16 • 22-14Final Score: New Mexico State 46-86 Kentucky
Kentucky 87.3%New Mexico State 12.7%
70-83153.1Kentucky -12.4Cal State Fullerton at San Diego State • FINAL18-16 • 22-10Final Score: Cal State Fullerton 57-83 San Diego State
San Diego State 84.6%Cal State Fullerton 15.4%
74-86160.1San Diego State -12.5Incarnate Word at Texas • FINAL12-19 • 21-15Final Score: Incarnate Word 56-88 Texas
Texas 91.7%Incarnate Word 8.3%
70-86156.3Texas -15.5Radford at North Carolina • FINAL16-16 • 24-9Final Score: Radford 70-86 North Carolina
North Carolina 92.0%Radford 8.0%
72-88159.2North Carolina -15.9Kansas State at USC • FINAL12-20 • 18-14Final Score: Kansas State 69-82 USC
USC 65.5%Kansas State 34.5%
79-84163.1USC -5.6American University at Villanova • FINAL16-16 • 24-9Final Score: American University 63-90 Villanova
Villanova 85.3%American University 14.7%
69-80148.6Villanova -11.5Morehead State at Alabama • FINAL20-13 • 24-10Final Score: Morehead State 73-105 Alabama
Alabama 95.2%Morehead State 4.8%
74-93166.6Alabama -19.1Eastern Illinois at Illinois • FINAL13-20 • 28-9Final Score: Eastern Illinois 52-80 Illinois
Illinois 99.0%Eastern Illinois 1.0%
58-87145.4Illinois -29.4Delaware State at Penn State • FINAL8-22 • 12-20Final Score: Delaware State 45-79 Penn State
Penn State 89.1%Delaware State 10.9%
64-76139.9Penn State -12.8Delaware at Bucknell • FINAL10-21 • 10-23Final Score: Delaware 78-57 Bucknell
Bucknell 51.6%Delaware 48.4%
71-72142.9Bucknell -1.2Holy Cross at Siena • FINAL11-22 • 23-12Final Score: Holy Cross 71-73 Siena
Siena 90.7%Holy Cross 9.3%
61-77138.1Siena -15.7Cleveland State at Duquesne • FINAL11-22 • 18-15Final Score: Cleveland State 77-79 Duquesne
Duquesne 88.1%Cleveland State 11.9%
75-89163.9Duquesne -14.8South Carolina Upstate at South Carolina • FINAL13-19 • 13-19Final Score: South Carolina Upstate 53-82 South Carolina
South Carolina 73.5%South Carolina Upstate 26.5%
73-79151.8South Carolina -6.3Hampton at Howard • FINAL13-19 • 24-11Final Score: Hampton 80-92 Howard
Howard 88.4%Hampton 11.6%
65-79144.3Howard -13.8Chicago State at Bowling Green • FINAL7-25 • 18-14Final Score: Chicago State 41-70 Bowling Green
Bowling Green 93.0%Chicago State 7.0%
64-84148.8Bowling Green -20.1Princeton at Rutgers • FINAL9-20 • 13-20Final Score: Princeton 68-61 Rutgers
Rutgers 68.5%Princeton 31.5%
69-74143.5Rutgers -4.8Central Connecticut at Rhode Island • FINAL18-12 • 16-16Final Score: Central Connecticut 70-81 Rhode Island
Rhode Island 77.6%Central Connecticut 22.4%
66-75141.3Rhode Island -8.3Winthrop at Clemson • FINAL23-11 • 24-10Final Score: Winthrop 56-78 Clemson
Clemson 71.5%Winthrop 28.5%
71-77148.9Clemson -6.0Monmouth at George Mason • FINAL19-15 • 23-10Final Score: Monmouth 61-72 George Mason
George Mason 73.5%Monmouth 26.5%
67-75142.5George Mason -7.7The Citadel at NC State • FINAL11-22 • 20-14Final Score: The Citadel 59-72 NC State
NC State 96.2%The Citadel 3.8%
67-89156.4NC State -22.1UMBC at Louisville • FINAL24-8 • 24-11Final Score: UMBC 93-94 Louisville
Louisville 80.2%UMBC 19.8%
69-80149.1Louisville -10.4Niagara at Notre Dame • FINAL8-22 • 13-17Final Score: Niagara 63-70 Notre Dame
Notre Dame 88.7%Niagara 11.3%
65-78143.0Notre Dame -13.7Queens University at Marshall • FINAL21-14 • 19-13Final Score: Queens University 73-89 Marshall
Marshall 63.2%Queens University 36.8%
82-87168.9Marshall -5.4North Dakota State at Western Michigan • FINAL27-8 • 10-21Final Score: North Dakota State 80-76 Western Michigan
North Dakota State 78.5%Western Michigan 21.5%
82-73154.9North Dakota State -8.8Columbia at Providence • FINAL16-12 • 15-18Final Score: Columbia 59-78 Providence
Providence 68.3%Columbia 31.7%
79-84162.8Providence -4.2Detroit Mercy at Toledo • FINAL17-15 • 19-15Final Score: Detroit Mercy 60-94 Toledo
Toledo 84.3%Detroit Mercy 15.7%
74-85159.4Toledo -11.3Brown at Colgate • FINAL9-18 • 18-15Final Score: Brown 70-72 Colgate
Colgate 81.8%Brown 18.2%
69-78146.7Colgate -9.0Iona at Charleston • FINAL18-14 • 21-11Final Score: Iona 69-71 Charleston
Charleston 78.2%Iona 21.8%
71-79149.4Charleston -8.3Oakland at Ohio State • FINAL16-16 • 21-13Final Score: Oakland 73-79 Ohio State
Ohio State 86.2%Oakland 13.8%
75-87162.1Ohio State -12.5Maine at Charlotte • FINAL8-24 • 17-17Final Score: Maine 52-69 Charlotte
Charlotte 88.4%Maine 11.6%
63-76138.7Charlotte -13.1North Carolina A&T at Pittsburgh • FINAL11-19 • 13-20Final Score: North Carolina A&T 52-100 Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh 81.4%North Carolina A&T 18.6%
70-79149.0Pittsburgh -9.9Lafayette at Saint Joseph's • FINAL11-21 • 24-12Final Score: Lafayette 60-81 Saint Joseph's
Saint Joseph's 87.5%Lafayette 12.5%
65-79144.1Saint Joseph's -13.7SIU Edwardsville at Dayton • FINAL19-13 • 25-12Final Score: SIU Edwardsville 47-63 Dayton
Dayton 85.3%SIU Edwardsville 14.7%
64-75138.9Dayton -10.3McNeese at VCU • FINAL27-6 • 28-8Final Score: McNeese 76-65 VCU
VCU 59.8%McNeese 40.2%
73-76148.9VCU -3.1Missouri State at West Virginia • FINAL16-18 • 21-14Final Score: Missouri State 59-67 West Virginia
West Virginia 75.2%Missouri State 24.8%
67-76142.6West Virginia -8.4Tarleton State at Virginia • FINAL14-18 • 30-6Final Score: Tarleton State 50-80 Virginia
Virginia 96.1%Tarleton State 3.9%
65-86150.4Virginia -20.6Longwood at St. Bonaventure • FINAL16-16 • 17-17Final Score: Longwood 69-73 St. Bonaventure
St. Bonaventure 76.0%Longwood 24.0%
73-80153.7St. Bonaventure -7.1VMI at Richmond • FINAL5-26 • 15-17Final Score: VMI 75-93 Richmond
Richmond 94.6%VMI 5.4%
66-85150.7Richmond -19.0New Hampshire at Syracuse • FINAL9-21 • 15-16Final Score: New Hampshire 72-83 Syracuse
Syracuse 92.7%New Hampshire 7.3%
65-82147.4Syracuse -16.6Manhattan at Bryant • FINAL12-20 • 9-22Final Score: Manhattan 61-59 Bryant
Manhattan 51.8%Bryant 48.2%
72-73145.8Bryant -1.0Cornell at Lehigh • FINAL15-13 • 18-17Final Score: Cornell 84-78 Lehigh
Cornell 67.7%Lehigh 32.3%
83-80163.2Cornell -3.7Georgia Southern at Georgia Tech • FINAL21-16 • 11-20Final Score: Georgia Southern 62-84 Georgia Tech
Georgia Southern 56.2%Georgia Tech 43.8%
80-80159.3Georgia Southern -0.3Maryland Eastern Shore at Temple • FINAL9-23 • 16-16Final Score: Maryland Eastern Shore 65-85 Temple
Temple 92.8%Maryland Eastern Shore 7.2%
61-78139.5Temple -16.7Fairleigh Dickinson at Buffalo • FINAL11-21 • 17-15Final Score: Fairleigh Dickinson 92-86 Buffalo
Buffalo 85.6%Fairleigh Dickinson 14.4%
67-79146.6Buffalo -11.6Towson at Colorado • FINAL19-15 • 17-16Final Score: Towson 57-75 Colorado
Colorado 59.0%Towson 41.0%
73-76148.8Colorado -2.6Saint Peter's at Seton Hall • FINAL17-12 • 21-12Final Score: Saint Peter's 59-70 Seton Hall
Seton Hall 82.9%Saint Peter's 17.1%
63-73136.4Seton Hall -10.6Wagner at Fordham • FINAL14-17 • 17-15Final Score: Wagner 64-68 Fordham
Fordham 79.1%Wagner 20.9%
64-74138.4Fordham -9.9Merrimack at Vermont • FINAL23-11 • 22-12Final Score: Merrimack 55-67 Vermont
Vermont 60.9%Merrimack 39.1%
67-71137.6Vermont -4.1Lipscomb at Wichita State • FINAL18-13 • 24-12Final Score: Lipscomb 59-76 Wichita State
Wichita State 90.1%Lipscomb 9.9%
69-83151.7Wichita State -14.3Georgia State at Belmont • FINAL10-22 • 26-6Final Score: Georgia State 87-89 Belmont
Belmont 95.5%Georgia State 4.5%
66-87153.4Belmont -20.8Southern Indiana at Saint Louis • FINAL7-22 • 29-6Final Score: Southern Indiana 63-75 Saint Louis
Saint Louis 97.8%Southern Indiana 2.2%
61-88148.6Saint Louis -26.7Texas State at Little Rock • FINAL19-13 • 12-20Final Score: Texas State 66-71 Little Rock
Texas State 52.3%Little Rock 47.7%
73-73145.5Texas State -0.4Navy at Campbell • FINAL26-8 • 15-18Final Score: Navy 48-59 Campbell
Navy 53.1%Campbell 46.9%
75-74149.1Navy -1.6Oral Roberts at UT Arlington • FINAL10-23 • 18-14Final Score: Oral Roberts 71-75 UT Arlington
UT Arlington 79.9%Oral Roberts 20.1%
67-78144.1UT Arlington -11.0Alabama State at Ole Miss • FINAL10-22 • 15-20Final Score: Alabama State 59-69 Ole Miss
Ole Miss 89.8%Alabama State 10.2%
70-84153.5Ole Miss -14.1Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Missouri • FINAL13-19 • 20-13Final Score: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 79-101 Missouri
Missouri 92.9%Arkansas-Pine Bluff 7.1%
72-89160.1Missouri -17.1Boston University at Northeastern • FINAL16-18 • 8-23Final Score: Boston University 58-67 Northeastern
Boston University 63.1%Northeastern 36.9%
79-76155.3Boston University -2.7Western Illinois at UTSA • FINAL5-26 • 5-25Final Score: Western Illinois 68-78 UTSA
UTSA 73.5%Western Illinois 26.5%
70-77147.0UTSA -6.6Miami (OH) at Evansville • FINAL32-2 • 7-25Final Score: Miami (OH) 64-72 Evansville
Miami (OH) 93.9%Evansville 6.1%
88-69157.1Miami (OH) -18.1Bradley at UAB • FINAL21-13 • 20-12Final Score: Bradley 73-71 UAB
UAB 68.7%Bradley 31.3%
74-80154.4UAB -6.0Arkansas State at Wisconsin • FINAL20-12 • 24-11Final Score: Arkansas State 76-105 Wisconsin
Wisconsin 78.0%Arkansas State 22.0%
78-86164.0Wisconsin -8.3Mississippi Valley State at LSU • FINAL3-30 • 15-17Final Score: Mississippi Valley State 60-106 LSU
LSU 99.0%Mississippi Valley State 1.0%
63-94156.5LSU -31.0Marist at Army • FINAL19-12 • 11-21Final Score: Marist 71-55 Army
Marist 74.5%Army 25.5%
74-67141.3Marist -7.1Central Michigan at Oklahoma • FINAL10-21 • 21-16Final Score: Central Michigan 59-89 Oklahoma
Oklahoma 92.6%Central Michigan 7.4%
71-88158.7Oklahoma -16.7Coppin State at Virginia Tech • FINAL7-24 • 19-13Final Score: Coppin State 55-100 Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech 98.2%Coppin State 1.8%
62-90151.7Virginia Tech -27.3Jackson State at Memphis • FINAL12-21 • 13-19Final Score: Jackson State 77-94 Memphis
Memphis 91.8%Jackson State 8.2%
69-87155.6Memphis -17.8Eastern Michigan at Butler • FINAL10-21 • 16-16Final Score: Eastern Michigan 55-94 Butler
Butler 82.4%Eastern Michigan 17.6%
71-82152.7Butler -10.4Elon at Wake Forest • FINAL14-18 • 18-17Final Score: Elon 78-101 Wake Forest
Wake Forest 86.5%Elon 13.5%
74-86159.4Wake Forest -11.6Stonehill at George Washington • FINAL12-21 • 19-16Final Score: Stonehill 44-89 George Washington
George Washington 95.0%Stonehill 5.0%
63-83145.9George Washington -19.1Robert Morris at Xavier • FINAL22-11 • 15-18Final Score: Robert Morris 63-77 Xavier
Robert Morris 56.2%Xavier 43.8%
79-78157.2Robert Morris -1.4Fairfield at Boston College • FINAL21-13 • 11-20Final Score: Fairfield 70-89 Boston College
Fairfield 51.2%Boston College 48.8%
71-71141.9Boston College -0.1Loyola Maryland at Florida • FINAL12-20 • 27-8Final Score: Loyola Maryland 73-93 Florida
Florida 99.0%Loyola Maryland 1.0%
64-95158.7Florida -31.4Florida International at UCF • FINAL15-17 • 21-12Final Score: Florida International 62-85 UCF
UCF 77.8%Florida International 22.2%
78-86163.0UCF -8.0Green Bay at Iowa State • FINAL18-15 • 28-8Final Score: Green Bay 44-85 Iowa State
Iowa State 96.5%Green Bay 3.5%
64-87150.3Iowa State -23.1Lindenwood at Nebraska • FINAL18-15 • 28-7Final Score: Lindenwood 52-84 Nebraska
Nebraska 94.0%Lindenwood 6.0%
65-83148.2Nebraska -17.2Bethune-Cookman at Minnesota • FINAL17-15 • 15-18Final Score: Bethune-Cookman 60-80 Minnesota
Minnesota 77.0%Bethune-Cookman 23.0%
69-77146.1Minnesota -8.7Binghamton at Northwestern • FINAL8-22 • 15-19Final Score: Binghamton 61-72 Northwestern
Northwestern 95.6%Binghamton 4.4%
61-80141.4Northwestern -19.5Central Arkansas at Tulsa • FINAL22-12 • 30-8Final Score: Central Arkansas 53-70 Tulsa
Tulsa 84.7%Central Arkansas 15.3%
75-86160.8Tulsa -11.8Northern Kentucky at Middle Tennessee • FINAL20-14 • 17-15Final Score: Northern Kentucky 57-74 Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee 58.7%Northern Kentucky 41.3%
77-80157.3Middle Tennessee -2.6Youngstown State at Louisiana • FINAL14-17 • 11-22Final Score: Youngstown State 62-72 Louisiana
Youngstown State 59.7%Louisiana 40.3%
71-69139.6Youngstown State -2.6Abilene Christian at Oklahoma State • FINAL14-19 • 20-15Final Score: Abilene Christian 64-59 Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State 85.1%Abilene Christian 14.9%
73-85157.8Oklahoma State -11.2Houston Christian at BYU • FINAL12-20 • 23-12Final Score: Houston Christian 63-110 BYU
BYU 96.2%Houston Christian 3.8%
64-86150.6BYU -21.7Southeast Missouri State at Grand Canyon • FINAL20-13 • 20-12Final Score: Southeast Missouri State 67-88 Grand Canyon
Grand Canyon 80.6%Southeast Missouri State 19.4%
68-78145.5Grand Canyon -9.7Nicholls at Tulane • FINAL14-19 • 18-15Final Score: Nicholls 81-91 Tulane
Tulane 64.3%Nicholls 35.7%
72-77148.9Tulane -4.3St. Thomas-Minnesota at California • FINAL24-10 • 22-12Final Score: St. Thomas-Minnesota 66-71 California
California 53.5%St. Thomas-Minnesota 46.5%
77-78154.9California -1.4Southern at TCU • FINAL17-17 • 23-12Final Score: Southern 75-108 TCU
TCU 90.0%Southern 10.0%
71-85156.4TCU -14.3UIC at Cincinnati • FINAL19-16 • 18-15Final Score: UIC 58-69 Cincinnati
Cincinnati 74.0%UIC 26.0%
68-76143.7Cincinnati -7.3Akron at South Dakota State • FINAL29-6 • 14-18Final Score: Akron 81-75 South Dakota State
Akron 78.5%South Dakota State 21.5%
83-75158.2Akron -8.1Portland State at Air Force • FINAL20-11 • 3-29Final Score: Portland State 62-55 Air Force
Portland State 92.6%Air Force 7.4%
81-64144.7Portland State -17.6Eastern Washington at Utah • FINAL14-19 • 10-22Final Score: Eastern Washington 66-101 Utah
Eastern Washington 60.5%Utah 39.5%
80-79158.5Eastern Washington -1.2Texas Southern at New Mexico • FINAL12-17 • 26-11Final Score: Texas Southern 55-92 New Mexico
New Mexico 95.5%Texas Southern 4.5%
65-86151.5New Mexico -20.9Southern Utah at Cal State Bakersfield • FINAL10-22 • 8-24Final Score: Southern Utah 72-73 Cal State Bakersfield
Southern Utah 60.5%Cal State Bakersfield 39.5%
81-78159.0Southern Utah -2.2Louisiana Tech at Colorado State • FINAL20-14 • 21-13Final Score: Louisiana Tech 73-81 Colorado State
Colorado State 74.6%Louisiana Tech 25.4%
67-74140.8Colorado State -6.5Sam Houston at Pacific • FINAL22-12 • 18-15Final Score: Sam Houston 64-57 Pacific
Sam Houston 55.4%Pacific 44.6%
76-75151.2Sam Houston -0.3Denver at UC San Diego • FINAL15-17 • 23-11Final Score: Denver 87-95 UC San Diego
UC San Diego 72.9%Denver 27.1%
75-84159.3UC San Diego -8.7Long Beach State at Portland • FINAL10-22 • 15-19Final Score: Long Beach State 73-78 Portland
Portland 66.5%Long Beach State 33.5%
75-80155.6Portland -4.7Cal State Northridge at Stanford • FINAL20-14 • 20-13Final Score: Cal State Northridge 79-88 Stanford
Stanford 82.3%Cal State Northridge 17.7%
74-84158.5Stanford -9.6Idaho at Washington State • FINAL21-15 • 12-20Final Score: Idaho 59-84 Washington State
Washington State 50.2%Idaho 49.8%
77-77154.6Washington State -0.0Bellarmine at Washington • FINAL13-19 • 16-17Final Score: Bellarmine 57-91 Washington
Washington 86.6%Bellarmine 13.4%
73-87159.8Washington -13.4Saint Francis at UCLA • FINAL7-24 • 24-12Final Score: Saint Francis 44-75 UCLA
UCLA 98.0%Saint Francis 2.0%
63-89152.5UCLA -25.6Drexel at La Salle • FINAL17-16 • 9-23Final Score: Drexel 61-67 La Salle
Drexel 51.8%La Salle 48.2%
69-68137.3Drexel -0.7Florida Gulf Coast at Indiana • FINAL16-18 • 18-14Final Score: Florida Gulf Coast 63-69 Indiana
Indiana 82.9%Florida Gulf Coast 17.1%
72-83154.6Indiana -11.2THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
0–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
HOW TO READ IT
One projection. One permanent result.
MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.
ACCOUNTABILITY
Every prediction leaves a receipt.
MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.