THE BOARD
The Numbers Behind the Noise.
MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.
SIGNATURE MODEL
Numbers Before Narratives.
MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.
THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
0–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
MMH POWER INDEX
2025-26 season • 365 Division I teamsTeam Ratings
MMH MATCHUPS
Games
MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD
Howard at Kansas • FINAL24-11 • 24-11Final Score: Howard 57-87 Kansas
Kansas 74.6%Howard 25.4%
70-77146.4Kansas -7.3UNC Asheville at Alabama • FINAL15-17 • 24-10Final Score: UNC Asheville 54-110 Alabama
Alabama 95.2%UNC Asheville 4.8%
73-92164.3Alabama -18.9Jackson State at Houston • FINAL12-21 • 29-7Final Score: Jackson State 40-97 Houston
Houston 99.0%Jackson State 1.0%
55-93148.1Houston -37.7Mississippi Valley State at Iowa State • FINAL3-30 • 28-8Final Score: Mississippi Valley State 44-83 Iowa State
Iowa State 99.0%Mississippi Valley State 1.0%
51-98148.7Iowa State -46.7Baylor at Gonzaga • FINAL16-17 • 31-4Final Score: Baylor 63-101 Gonzaga
Gonzaga 92.1%Baylor 7.9%
70-87157.1Gonzaga -17.7Maine at Duke • FINAL8-24 • 35-3Final Score: Maine 62-96 Duke
Duke 99.0%Maine 1.0%
50-87137.1Duke -36.6Elon at North Carolina • FINAL14-18 • 24-9Final Score: Elon 76-90 North Carolina
North Carolina 93.7%Elon 6.3%
69-87156.5North Carolina -17.6Canisius at Arizona • FINAL10-21 • 36-3Final Score: Canisius 64-93 Arizona
Arizona 99.0%Canisius 1.0%
54-91144.9Arizona -36.7Gardner-Webb at Tennessee • FINAL4-29 • 25-12Final Score: Gardner-Webb 64-80 Tennessee
Tennessee 99.0%Gardner-Webb 1.0%
59-94153.3Tennessee -35.6Texas A&M at UCF • FINAL20-12 • 21-12Final Score: Texas A&M 61-64 UCF
UCF 60.1%Texas A&M 39.9%
79-82160.8UCF -2.9Stony Brook at Marquette • FINAL17-15 • 12-20Final Score: Stony Brook 62-102 Marquette
Marquette 75.8%Stony Brook 24.2%
71-78148.1Marquette -6.9Ohio State at Texas • FINAL21-13 • 21-15Final Score: Ohio State 80-72 Texas
Texas 54.6%Ohio State 45.4%
78-81158.8Texas -2.6Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Cincinnati • FINAL13-19 • 18-15Final Score: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54-109 Cincinnati
Cincinnati 95.5%Arkansas-Pine Bluff 4.5%
65-86151.2Cincinnati -20.3South Florida at Florida • FINAL25-9 • 27-8Final Score: South Florida 83-98 Florida
Florida 84.9%South Florida 15.1%
77-88165.5Florida -11.4Rider at UCLA • FINAL4-25 • 24-12Final Score: Rider 50-85 UCLA
UCLA 98.6%Rider 1.4%
58-86144.3UCLA -27.9Wright State at Kentucky • FINAL23-12 • 22-14Final Score: Wright State 62-103 Kentucky
Kentucky 78.0%Wright State 22.0%
75-83157.7Kentucky -8.5Long Island University at Ole Miss • FINAL24-11 • 15-20Final Score: Long Island University 60-90 Ole Miss
Ole Miss 69.4%Long Island University 30.6%
73-78150.4Ole Miss -5.4Florida Gulf Coast at UNC Greensboro • FINAL16-18 • 15-19Final Score: Florida Gulf Coast 64-73 UNC Greensboro
UNC Greensboro 57.4%Florida Gulf Coast 42.6%
79-81160.0UNC Greensboro -1.8Columbia at Loyola Maryland • FINAL16-12 • 12-20Final Score: Columbia 81-78 Loyola Maryland
Columbia 67.4%Loyola Maryland 32.6%
78-74152.4Columbia -4.4Pennsylvania at NJIT • FINAL18-12 • 16-17Final Score: Pennsylvania 58-57 NJIT
Pennsylvania 74.9%NJIT 25.1%
76-70146.1Pennsylvania -6.0Monmouth at Michigan State • FINAL19-15 • 27-8Final Score: Monmouth 57-81 Michigan State
Michigan State 92.2%Monmouth 7.8%
65-81146.2Michigan State -16.7Western Michigan at Coastal Carolina • FINAL10-21 • 19-13Final Score: Western Michigan 56-60 Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina 72.2%Western Michigan 27.8%
72-80152.1Coastal Carolina -7.8Toledo at Troy • FINAL19-15 • 22-12Final Score: Toledo 74-84 Troy
Toledo 50.4%Troy 49.6%
78-80158.2Troy -2.1Ohio at James Madison • FINAL15-17 • 18-15Final Score: Ohio 78-88 James Madison
James Madison 72.9%Ohio 27.1%
74-81155.1James Madison -7.0Northern Illinois at Georgia Southern • FINAL9-21 • 21-16Final Score: Northern Illinois 65-80 Georgia Southern
Georgia Southern 93.9%Northern Illinois 6.1%
70-87156.8Georgia Southern -17.3Buffalo at Old Dominion • FINAL17-15 • 12-21Final Score: Buffalo 83-82 Old Dominion
Old Dominion 55.7%Buffalo 44.3%
78-79157.2Old Dominion -1.8Ball State at Georgia State • FINAL12-19 • 10-22Final Score: Ball State 66-71 Georgia State
Georgia State 56.0%Ball State 44.0%
69-72140.9Georgia State -2.3Brown at Siena • FINAL9-18 • 23-12Final Score: Brown 71-72 Siena
Siena 88.7%Brown 11.3%
62-75137.5Siena -12.9Cal State Northridge at St. Bonaventure • FINAL20-14 • 17-17Final Score: Cal State Northridge 56-70 St. Bonaventure
St. Bonaventure 69.4%Cal State Northridge 30.6%
77-83159.7St. Bonaventure -5.7South Carolina Upstate at NC State • FINAL13-19 • 20-14Final Score: South Carolina Upstate 66-97 NC State
NC State 91.3%South Carolina Upstate 8.7%
71-86156.7NC State -15.4New Hampshire at Massachusetts • FINAL9-21 • 17-16Final Score: New Hampshire 74-103 Massachusetts
Massachusetts 92.1%New Hampshire 7.9%
68-85153.0Massachusetts -16.1Saint Francis at Dayton • FINAL7-24 • 25-12Final Score: Saint Francis 57-87 Dayton
Dayton 97.2%Saint Francis 2.8%
63-87149.4Dayton -23.7North Carolina Central at George Mason • FINAL14-18 • 23-10Final Score: North Carolina Central 58-75 George Mason
George Mason 94.5%North Carolina Central 5.5%
63-82144.8George Mason -18.7Radford at Pittsburgh • FINAL16-16 • 13-20Final Score: Radford 56-96 Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh 69.0%Radford 31.0%
74-79153.5Pittsburgh -5.1Fairleigh Dickinson at Miami • FINAL11-21 • 26-9Final Score: Fairleigh Dickinson 72-113 Miami
Miami 97.2%Fairleigh Dickinson 2.8%
61-84145.7Miami -23.3Northern Kentucky at Florida State • FINAL20-14 • 18-15Final Score: Northern Kentucky 62-74 Florida State
Florida State 74.0%Northern Kentucky 26.0%
79-85163.7Florida State -6.1Central Connecticut at Providence • FINAL18-12 • 15-18Final Score: Central Connecticut 55-59 Providence
Providence 83.2%Central Connecticut 16.8%
76-85160.6Providence -9.5North Florida at South Carolina • FINAL7-25 • 13-19Final Score: North Florida 74-71 South Carolina
South Carolina 86.2%North Florida 13.8%
75-89163.9South Carolina -13.4Manhattan at Maryland • FINAL12-20 • 12-20Final Score: Manhattan 49-79 Maryland
Maryland 74.0%Manhattan 26.0%
72-79151.0Maryland -7.0Robert Morris at West Virginia • FINAL22-11 • 21-14Final Score: Robert Morris 59-87 West Virginia
West Virginia 63.0%Robert Morris 37.0%
69-74143.1West Virginia -4.6Le Moyne at Syracuse • FINAL15-17 • 15-16Final Score: Le Moyne 82-86 Syracuse
Syracuse 81.9%Le Moyne 18.1%
69-80148.9Syracuse -10.3Iona at Princeton • FINAL18-14 • 9-20Final Score: Iona 80-81 Princeton
Princeton 53.3%Iona 46.7%
72-73144.3Princeton -1.2Morehead State at Louisville • FINAL20-13 • 24-11Final Score: Morehead State 45-93 Louisville
Louisville 93.8%Morehead State 6.2%
69-88156.2Louisville -19.1Charleston Southern at Clemson • FINAL15-17 • 24-10Final Score: Charleston Southern 64-91 Clemson
Clemson 86.9%Charleston Southern 13.1%
70-82151.7Clemson -12.3Bellarmine at VCU • FINAL13-19 • 28-8Final Score: Bellarmine 65-84 VCU
VCU 94.4%Bellarmine 5.6%
71-90161.1VCU -19.7Navy at Saint Joseph's • FINAL26-8 • 24-12Final Score: Navy 63-70 Saint Joseph's
Saint Joseph's 50.8%Navy 49.2%
70-71141.0Saint Joseph's -0.3American University at La Salle • FINAL16-16 • 9-23Final Score: American University 52-65 La Salle
American University 56.5%La Salle 43.5%
73-71144.0American University -2.0Indiana State at Florida Atlantic • FINAL11-21 • 18-15Final Score: Indiana State 64-97 Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic 78.8%Indiana State 21.2%
72-81152.7Florida Atlantic -9.6Vermont at UAB • FINAL22-12 • 20-12Final Score: Vermont 67-62 UAB
UAB 71.8%Vermont 28.2%
71-78148.9UAB -6.9Northeastern at Boston University • FINAL8-23 • 16-18Final Score: Northeastern 80-72 Boston University
Boston University 82.6%Northeastern 17.4%
72-83155.3Boston University -10.9Texas Southern at Xavier • FINAL12-17 • 15-18Final Score: Texas Southern 69-78 Xavier
Xavier 81.4%Texas Southern 18.6%
73-83155.7Xavier -9.3Saint Peter's at Seton Hall • FINAL17-12 • 21-12Final Score: Saint Peter's 53-57 Seton Hall
Seton Hall 82.9%Saint Peter's 17.1%
63-73136.4Seton Hall -10.6Binghamton at Penn State • FINAL8-22 • 12-20Final Score: Binghamton 66-108 Penn State
Penn State 83.4%Binghamton 16.6%
68-78146.2Penn State -10.3West Georgia at Mississippi State • FINAL15-17 • 13-19Final Score: West Georgia 60-95 Mississippi State
Mississippi State 65.0%West Georgia 35.0%
79-83161.7Mississippi State -4.7Tennessee Tech at Georgia • FINAL13-18 • 22-11Final Score: Tennessee Tech 78-83 Georgia
Georgia 94.0%Tennessee Tech 6.0%
72-91162.4Georgia -19.0Maryland Eastern Shore at Vanderbilt • FINAL9-23 • 27-9Final Score: Maryland Eastern Shore 63-102 Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt 99.0%Maryland Eastern Shore 1.0%
60-89149.1Vanderbilt -29.5UT Martin at Illinois State • FINAL22-11 • 23-13Final Score: UT Martin 67-65 Illinois State
Illinois State 73.3%UT Martin 26.7%
65-72137.1Illinois State -6.5Southeast Missouri State at Bradley • FINAL20-13 • 21-13Final Score: Southeast Missouri State 60-88 Bradley
Bradley 69.4%Southeast Missouri State 30.6%
72-78149.6Bradley -5.7Wichita State at Western Kentucky • FINAL24-12 • 18-14Final Score: Wichita State 91-84 Western Kentucky
Wichita State 58.4%Western Kentucky 41.6%
78-77154.7Wichita State -1.4UAlbany at Army • FINAL11-20 • 11-21Final Score: UAlbany 59-67 Army
UAlbany 51.5%Army 48.5%
72-73145.0Army -0.2Quinnipiac at Yale • FINAL19-13 • 23-7Final Score: Quinnipiac 62-88 Yale
Yale 89.2%Quinnipiac 10.8%
67-81148.5Yale -13.6Kent State at Louisiana • FINAL24-10 • 11-22Final Score: Kent State 70-66 Louisiana
Kent State 78.3%Louisiana 21.7%
79-71150.5Kent State -7.8Eastern Michigan at Texas State • FINAL10-21 • 19-13Final Score: Eastern Michigan 44-64 Texas State
Texas State 76.5%Eastern Michigan 23.5%
68-77145.2Texas State -8.6Central Michigan at South Alabama • FINAL10-21 • 21-12Final Score: Central Michigan 74-70 South Alabama
South Alabama 79.1%Central Michigan 20.9%
69-79148.7South Alabama -10.2Bowling Green at Southern Miss • FINAL18-14 • 19-16Final Score: Bowling Green 68-77 Southern Miss
Bowling Green 50.6%Southern Miss 49.4%
77-76152.9Bowling Green -1.1Akron at Arkansas State • FINAL29-6 • 20-12Final Score: Akron 75-80 Arkansas State
Akron 59.7%Arkansas State 40.3%
84-82165.7Akron -2.5Presbyterian at Charlotte • FINAL15-18 • 17-17Final Score: Presbyterian 79-88 Charlotte
Charlotte 69.2%Presbyterian 30.8%
71-76147.3Charlotte -5.4Fairfield at Rhode Island • FINAL21-13 • 16-16Final Score: Fairfield 58-96 Rhode Island
Rhode Island 64.8%Fairfield 35.2%
69-73141.9Rhode Island -4.8Mercyhurst at George Washington • FINAL17-17 • 19-16Final Score: Mercyhurst 59-76 George Washington
George Washington 89.1%Mercyhurst 10.9%
67-80147.0George Washington -14.0Lafayette at Villanova • FINAL11-21 • 24-9Final Score: Lafayette 63-75 Villanova
Villanova 93.8%Lafayette 6.2%
64-83147.3Villanova -18.5Southern Indiana at DePaul • FINAL7-22 • 16-16Final Score: Southern Indiana 78-80 DePaul
DePaul 85.1%Southern Indiana 14.9%
63-75137.6DePaul -11.9Holy Cross at Wisconsin • FINAL11-22 • 24-11Final Score: Holy Cross 61-85 Wisconsin
Wisconsin 97.0%Holy Cross 3.0%
65-87152.2Wisconsin -22.6Lehigh at Northwestern • FINAL18-17 • 15-19Final Score: Lehigh 46-90 Northwestern
Northwestern 84.3%Lehigh 15.7%
68-79147.0Northwestern -10.8East Texas A&M at Iowa • FINAL11-21 • 24-13Final Score: East Texas A&M 67-89 Iowa
Iowa 96.7%East Texas A&M 3.3%
61-83143.3Iowa -21.8Missouri at Memphis • FINAL20-13 • 13-19Final Score: Missouri 75-83 Memphis
Missouri 63.1%Memphis 36.9%
79-77156.2Missouri -2.2Lipscomb at Duquesne • FINAL18-13 • 18-15Final Score: Lipscomb 77-72 Duquesne
Duquesne 69.4%Lipscomb 30.6%
74-80154.6Duquesne -6.1UT Rio Grande Valley at Nebraska • FINAL19-14 • 28-7Final Score: UT Rio Grande Valley 67-87 Nebraska
Nebraska 85.3%UT Rio Grande Valley 14.7%
66-78144.9Nebraska -12.0Cleveland State at Michigan • FINAL11-22 • 36-3Final Score: Cleveland State 53-101 Michigan
Michigan 99.0%Cleveland State 1.0%
65-101166.5Michigan -36.3Eastern Illinois at Illinois • FINAL13-20 • 28-9Final Score: Eastern Illinois 67-112 Illinois
Illinois 99.0%Eastern Illinois 1.0%
58-87145.4Illinois -29.4Florida A&M at TCU • FINAL14-16 • 23-12Final Score: Florida A&M 59-105 TCU
TCU 94.1%Florida A&M 5.9%
65-83148.1TCU -18.7Delaware State at Virginia Tech • FINAL8-22 • 19-13Final Score: Delaware State 60-83 Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech 97.8%Delaware State 2.2%
58-82140.0Virginia Tech -24.3The Citadel at Boston College • FINAL11-22 • 11-20Final Score: The Citadel 60-69 Boston College
Boston College 82.7%The Citadel 17.3%
66-77143.3Boston College -11.0Coppin State at Wake Forest • FINAL7-24 • 18-17Final Score: Coppin State 49-64 Wake Forest
Wake Forest 98.2%Coppin State 1.8%
63-90153.2Wake Forest -26.6Chicago State at Loyola Chicago • FINAL7-25 • 9-24Final Score: Chicago State 72-79 Loyola Chicago
Loyola Chicago 70.4%Chicago State 29.6%
68-74142.3Loyola Chicago -6.5Tarleton State at SMU • FINAL14-18 • 20-14Final Score: Tarleton State 62-96 SMU
SMU 92.4%Tarleton State 7.6%
71-87158.2SMU -15.6Lindenwood at Oklahoma • FINAL18-15 • 21-16Final Score: Lindenwood 60-93 Oklahoma
Oklahoma 90.1%Lindenwood 9.9%
73-86159.1Oklahoma -12.5Cal State Fullerton at Grand Canyon • FINAL18-16 • 20-12Final Score: Cal State Fullerton 79-89 Grand Canyon
Grand Canyon 84.1%Cal State Fullerton 15.9%
73-85157.5Grand Canyon -11.9Nicholls at New Mexico • FINAL14-19 • 26-11Final Score: Nicholls 84-91 New Mexico
New Mexico 94.0%Nicholls 6.0%
66-85151.5New Mexico -19.1Southern at South Dakota • FINAL17-17 • 16-16Final Score: Southern 79-93 South Dakota
South Dakota 60.6%Southern 39.4%
80-83162.9South Dakota -3.0Alcorn State at Utah • FINAL9-23 • 10-22Final Score: Alcorn State 59-100 Utah
Utah 89.6%Alcorn State 10.4%
69-84152.4Utah -15.2Green Bay at Oklahoma State • FINAL18-15 • 20-15Final Score: Green Bay 76-89 Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State 69.2%Green Bay 30.8%
78-85162.6Oklahoma State -6.4Eastern Washington at Colorado • FINAL14-19 • 17-16Final Score: Eastern Washington 56-76 Colorado
Colorado 63.5%Eastern Washington 36.5%
79-84162.6Colorado -5.1North Dakota at Colorado State • FINAL18-17 • 21-13Final Score: North Dakota 56-82 Colorado State
Colorado State 86.0%North Dakota 14.0%
70-82152.6Colorado State -11.9North Alabama at Air Force • FINAL9-21 • 3-29Final Score: North Alabama 73-57 Air Force
North Alabama 69.4%Air Force 30.6%
75-70144.8North Alabama -5.0Utah Tech at Oregon State • FINAL19-15 • 17-16Final Score: Utah Tech 57-80 Oregon State
Oregon State 65.5%Utah Tech 34.5%
73-77150.1Oregon State -3.6Towson at Saint Mary's • FINAL19-15 • 27-6Final Score: Towson 69-76 Saint Mary's
Saint Mary's 91.4%Towson 8.6%
61-77137.9Saint Mary's -16.0Western Illinois at San José State • FINAL5-26 • 9-24Final Score: Western Illinois 59-55 San José State
San José State 90.9%Western Illinois 9.1%
66-81147.2San José State -14.3Sam Houston at Nevada • FINAL22-12 • 24-13Final Score: Sam Houston 75-91 Nevada
Nevada 71.5%Sam Houston 28.5%
75-80155.1Nevada -5.4Chattanooga at USC • FINAL13-19 • 18-14Final Score: Chattanooga 51-77 USC
USC 68.5%Chattanooga 31.5%
76-82157.4USC -6.0Incarnate Word at California Baptist • FINAL12-19 • 25-9Final Score: Incarnate Word 78-83 California Baptist
California Baptist 88.4%Incarnate Word 11.6%
66-79144.7California Baptist -13.5UC Riverside at Oregon • FINAL10-22 • 12-19Final Score: UC Riverside 76-91 Oregon
Oregon 79.7%UC Riverside 20.3%
70-79149.3Oregon -9.2Portland State at Washington State • FINAL20-11 • 12-20Final Score: Portland State 92-100 Washington State
Washington State 58.5%Portland State 41.5%
76-77152.3Washington State -1.2Alabama State at UNLV • FINAL10-22 • 18-16Final Score: Alabama State 79-93 UNLV
UNLV 89.6%Alabama State 10.4%
71-85156.9UNLV -14.0Cal State Bakersfield at California • FINAL8-24 • 22-12Final Score: Cal State Bakersfield 73-86 California
California 96.1%Cal State Bakersfield 3.9%
67-89156.2California -21.9THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
0–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
HOW TO READ IT
One projection. One permanent result.
MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.
ACCOUNTABILITY
Every prediction leaves a receipt.
MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.