THE BOARD
The Numbers Behind the Noise.
MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.
SIGNATURE MODEL
Numbers Before Narratives.
MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.
THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
0–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
MMH POWER INDEX
2025-26 season • 365 Division I teamsTeam Ratings
MMH MATCHUPS
Games
MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD
Cincinnati at Dayton • FINAL18-15 • 25-12Final Score: Cincinnati 66-59 Dayton
Dayton 58.2%Cincinnati 41.8%
70-72142.1Dayton -2.8Purdue at Auburn • FINAL30-9 • 21-16Final Score: Purdue 69-87 Auburn
Purdue 61.6%Auburn 38.4%
82-79160.7Purdue -2.6Kentucky at Ohio State • FINAL22-14 • 21-13Final Score: Kentucky 65-85 Ohio State
Ohio State 64.0%Kentucky 36.0%
76-80156.3Ohio State -4.1Duke at Georgia Tech • FINAL35-3 • 11-20Final Score: Duke 82-56 Georgia Tech
Duke 98.0%Georgia Tech 2.0%
87-63149.9Duke -23.7North Florida at Florida • FINAL7-25 • 27-8Final Score: North Florida 45-99 Florida
Florida 99.0%North Florida 1.0%
66-102168.4Florida -36.0Marquette at Xavier • FINAL12-20 • 15-18Final Score: Marquette 72-70 Xavier
Xavier 54.9%Marquette 45.1%
78-80158.1Xavier -2.1UConn at Butler • FINAL34-5 • 16-16Final Score: UConn 78-74 Butler
UConn 80.9%Butler 19.1%
80-71151.4UConn -8.6Texas A&M-Corpus Christi at Houston • FINAL18-15 • 29-7Final Score: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 51-87 Houston
Houston 97.2%Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 2.8%
59-81139.5Houston -22.4Queens University at Ole Miss • FINAL21-14 • 15-20Final Score: Queens University 62-80 Ole Miss
Ole Miss 65.8%Queens University 34.2%
80-85164.4Ole Miss -5.2North Carolina at UCLA • FINAL24-9 • 24-12Final Score: North Carolina 76-74 UCLA
UCLA 56.6%North Carolina 43.4%
75-77151.7UCLA -2.0Florida Atlantic at Michigan State • FINAL18-15 • 27-8Final Score: Florida Atlantic 69-86 Michigan State
Michigan State 92.7%Florida Atlantic 7.3%
68-84152.1Michigan State -16.2Mississippi State at Memphis • FINAL13-19 • 13-19Final Score: Mississippi State 79-66 Memphis
Memphis 70.4%Mississippi State 29.6%
76-83159.0Memphis -7.0Wake Forest at Clemson • FINAL18-17 • 24-10Final Score: Wake Forest 62-73 Clemson
Clemson 68.3%Wake Forest 31.7%
70-77146.9Clemson -6.8Delaware at Saint Peter's • FINAL10-21 • 17-12Final Score: Delaware 64-72 Saint Peter's
Saint Peter's 79.9%Delaware 20.1%
65-75140.1Saint Peter's -10.7Akron at Yale • FINAL29-6 • 23-7Final Score: Akron 58-74 Yale
Yale 61.4%Akron 38.6%
77-80157.2Yale -2.6Holy Cross at Siena • FINAL11-22 • 23-12Final Score: Holy Cross 78-70 Siena
Siena 90.7%Holy Cross 9.3%
61-77138.1Siena -15.7Longwood at North Carolina Central • FINAL16-16 • 14-18Final Score: Longwood 82-67 North Carolina Central
Longwood 67.7%North Carolina Central 32.3%
78-74151.5Longwood -4.4App State at North Texas • FINAL19-13 • 19-14Final Score: App State 64-68 North Texas
North Texas 57.1%App State 42.9%
67-70137.4North Texas -2.7St. John's at Providence • FINAL30-6 • 15-18Final Score: St. John's 72-70 Providence
St. John's 78.3%Providence 21.7%
86-78164.1St. John's -8.3Jackson State at UTEP • FINAL12-21 • 11-20Final Score: Jackson State 61-67 UTEP
UTEP 88.4%Jackson State 11.6%
67-82149.3UTEP -15.1Florida A&M at BYU • FINAL14-16 • 23-12Final Score: Florida A&M 57-103 BYU
BYU 96.2%Florida A&M 3.8%
66-88154.0BYU -21.9Southern at Loyola Marymount • FINAL17-17 • 15-17Final Score: Southern 73-89 Loyola Marymount
Loyola Marymount 75.2%Southern 24.8%
73-81154.4Loyola Marymount -7.8South Carolina State at Northern Kentucky • FINAL10-22 • 20-14Final Score: South Carolina State 47-58 Northern Kentucky
Northern Kentucky 95.8%South Carolina State 4.2%
67-89155.9Northern Kentucky -22.1SMU at Boston College • FINAL20-14 • 11-20Final Score: SMU 103-77 Boston College
SMU 80.7%Boston College 19.3%
80-72151.7SMU -8.1Vermont at Dartmouth • FINAL22-12 • 11-16Final Score: Vermont 54-84 Dartmouth
Vermont 69.1%Dartmouth 30.9%
76-72148.5Vermont -3.7Princeton at Rutgers • FINAL9-20 • 13-20Final Score: Princeton 83-82 Rutgers
Rutgers 68.5%Princeton 31.5%
69-74143.5Rutgers -4.8Penn State at Drexel • FINAL12-20 • 17-16Final Score: Penn State 75-64 Drexel
Drexel 72.7%Penn State 27.3%
68-77144.7Drexel -8.3Chattanooga at Indiana • FINAL13-19 • 18-14Final Score: Chattanooga 65-74 Indiana
Indiana 86.8%Chattanooga 13.2%
70-83153.5Indiana -12.9Syracuse at Maryland • FINAL15-16 • 12-20Final Score: Syracuse 60-87 Maryland
Syracuse 59.7%Maryland 40.3%
76-73148.5Syracuse -2.6Virginia Tech at Saint Joseph's • FINAL19-13 • 24-12Final Score: Virginia Tech 62-82 Saint Joseph's
Virginia Tech 51.8%Saint Joseph's 48.2%
75-75150.1Saint Joseph's -0.7Fairfield at Monmouth • FINAL21-13 • 19-15Final Score: Fairfield 74-88 Monmouth
Monmouth 67.8%Fairfield 32.2%
70-75145.4Monmouth -5.1UMBC at Marist • FINAL24-8 • 19-12Final Score: UMBC 73-76 Marist
UMBC 59.7%Marist 40.3%
68-67134.9UMBC -0.5Maine at Stony Brook • FINAL8-24 • 17-15Final Score: Maine 72-74 Stony Brook
Stony Brook 85.0%Maine 15.0%
62-74135.6Stony Brook -12.1Saint Francis at Robert Morris • FINAL7-24 • 22-11Final Score: Saint Francis 77-90 Robert Morris
Robert Morris 95.8%Saint Francis 4.2%
66-87153.2Robert Morris -21.4Navy at Coppin State • FINAL26-8 • 7-24Final Score: Navy 60-68 Coppin State
Navy 94.6%Coppin State 5.4%
81-62142.6Navy -19.5Lehigh at Long Island University • FINAL18-17 • 24-11Final Score: Lehigh 60-59 Long Island University
Long Island University 75.0%Lehigh 25.0%
70-78147.1Long Island University -8.0Hampton at Loyola Maryland • FINAL13-19 • 12-20Final Score: Hampton 76-68 Loyola Maryland
Loyola Maryland 56.0%Hampton 44.0%
73-75147.5Loyola Maryland -2.0Quinnipiac at Central Connecticut • FINAL19-13 • 18-12Final Score: Quinnipiac 80-84 Central Connecticut
Quinnipiac 55.6%Central Connecticut 44.4%
74-73147.2Quinnipiac -0.2Manhattan at Presbyterian • FINAL12-20 • 15-18Final Score: Manhattan 86-81 Presbyterian
Presbyterian 79.0%Manhattan 21.0%
70-80150.4Presbyterian -9.7Niagara at St. Bonaventure • FINAL8-22 • 17-17Final Score: Niagara 52-71 St. Bonaventure
St. Bonaventure 91.7%Niagara 8.3%
64-80143.1St. Bonaventure -16.0Youngstown State at South Carolina Upstate • FINAL14-17 • 13-19Final Score: Youngstown State 72-64 South Carolina Upstate
South Carolina Upstate 54.1%Youngstown State 45.9%
73-75148.4South Carolina Upstate -2.0Sam Houston at Pittsburgh • FINAL22-12 • 13-20Final Score: Sam Houston 78-110 Pittsburgh
Sam Houston 52.9%Pittsburgh 47.1%
76-75151.7Sam Houston -1.1Lamar at Texas Tech • FINAL12-19 • 23-11Final Score: Lamar 57-101 Texas Tech
Texas Tech 94.9%Lamar 5.1%
64-83147.1Texas Tech -18.2Jacksonville State at Eastern Kentucky • FINAL15-17 • 11-21Final Score: Jacksonville State 91-80 Eastern Kentucky
Jacksonville State 54.3%Eastern Kentucky 45.7%
77-76153.9Jacksonville State -1.0Louisville at Florida State • FINAL24-11 • 18-15Final Score: Louisville 90-76 Florida State
Louisville 60.5%Florida State 39.5%
82-79161.4Louisville -3.6Boston University at UMass Lowell • FINAL16-18 • 15-18Final Score: Boston University 71-83 UMass Lowell
Boston University 55.4%UMass Lowell 44.6%
76-76152.5Boston University -0.1Chicago State at Cal State Northridge • FINAL7-25 • 20-14Final Score: Chicago State 57-81 Cal State Northridge
Cal State Northridge 88.7%Chicago State 11.3%
69-85154.0Cal State Northridge -15.2Wright State at Eastern Michigan • FINAL23-12 • 10-21Final Score: Wright State 82-86 Eastern Michigan
Wright State 73.4%Eastern Michigan 26.6%
78-73151.0Wright State -5.7St. Thomas-Minnesota at Bowling Green • FINAL24-10 • 18-14Final Score: St. Thomas-Minnesota 93-68 Bowling Green
St. Thomas-Minnesota 51.5%Bowling Green 48.5%
77-79155.9Bowling Green -1.7Evansville at Ball State • FINAL7-25 • 12-19Final Score: Evansville 43-80 Ball State
Ball State 83.1%Evansville 16.9%
64-76139.8Ball State -11.3East Tennessee State at Kansas City • FINAL23-11 • 4-27Final Score: East Tennessee State 66-73 Kansas City
East Tennessee State 95.4%Kansas City 4.6%
86-66152.2East Tennessee State -19.7High Point at Southern Illinois • FINAL31-5 • 16-16Final Score: High Point 94-81 Southern Illinois
High Point 74.9%Southern Illinois 25.1%
81-73154.0High Point -7.8Mercer at Winthrop • FINAL19-13 • 23-11Final Score: Mercer 97-102 Winthrop
Winthrop 67.8%Mercer 32.2%
79-84162.8Winthrop -5.8UNC Asheville at UNC Wilmington • FINAL15-17 • 27-7Final Score: UNC Asheville 74-85 UNC Wilmington
UNC Wilmington 86.4%UNC Asheville 13.6%
67-80146.2UNC Wilmington -12.9UT Arlington at Liberty • FINAL18-14 • 26-8Final Score: UT Arlington 56-79 Liberty
Liberty 72.4%UT Arlington 27.6%
68-75142.8Liberty -6.7UAlbany at Fordham • FINAL11-20 • 17-15Final Score: UAlbany 83-87 Fordham
Fordham 80.9%UAlbany 19.1%
63-73136.2Fordham -10.6Mount St. Mary's at Miami • FINAL15-17 • 26-9Final Score: Mount St. Mary's 78-74 Miami
Miami 95.5%Mount St. Mary's 4.5%
63-83146.3Miami -20.5Fairleigh Dickinson at Minnesota • FINAL11-21 • 15-18Final Score: Fairleigh Dickinson 60-74 Minnesota
Minnesota 86.6%Fairleigh Dickinson 13.4%
62-74136.6Minnesota -12.1James Madison at South Alabama • FINAL18-15 • 21-12Final Score: James Madison 49-77 South Alabama
South Alabama 60.1%James Madison 39.9%
72-76147.5South Alabama -4.3Georgia State at Troy • FINAL10-22 • 22-12Final Score: Georgia State 57-77 Troy
Troy 90.0%Georgia State 10.0%
68-83150.5Troy -15.4Canisius at Bradley • FINAL10-21 • 21-13Final Score: Canisius 59-92 Bradley
Bradley 94.2%Canisius 5.8%
62-80142.1Bradley -18.4North Carolina A&T at Arkansas • FINAL11-19 • 28-9Final Score: North Carolina A&T 67-95 Arkansas
Arkansas 97.3%North Carolina A&T 2.7%
72-95166.9Arkansas -23.3UC Irvine at Duquesne • FINAL23-12 • 18-15Final Score: UC Irvine 54-70 Duquesne
UC Irvine 58.6%Duquesne 41.4%
77-75151.7UC Irvine -1.9UC Davis at Pepperdine • FINAL19-14 • 9-23Final Score: UC Davis 46-85 Pepperdine
UC Davis 65.2%Pepperdine 34.8%
80-75154.8UC Davis -4.3UC Riverside at UNLV • FINAL10-22 • 18-16Final Score: UC Riverside 53-66 UNLV
UNLV 85.8%UC Riverside 14.2%
73-85157.1UNLV -12.1East Texas A&M at South Florida • FINAL11-21 • 25-9Final Score: East Texas A&M 62-88 South Florida
South Florida 98.0%East Texas A&M 2.0%
65-91156.6South Florida -25.8Gardner-Webb at East Carolina • FINAL4-29 • 11-20Final Score: Gardner-Webb 84-79 East Carolina
East Carolina 92.3%Gardner-Webb 7.7%
68-85153.6East Carolina -17.3Mississippi Valley State at Tulsa • FINAL3-30 • 30-8Final Score: Mississippi Valley State 48-93 Tulsa
Tulsa 99.0%Mississippi Valley State 1.0%
58-97155.7Tulsa -39.1Austin Peay at Vanderbilt • FINAL22-9 • 27-9Final Score: Austin Peay 55-85 Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt 88.9%Austin Peay 11.1%
74-88161.7Vanderbilt -13.3Furman at Harvard • FINAL22-13 • 17-12Final Score: Furman 77-63 Harvard
Harvard 59.0%Furman 41.0%
70-72141.9Harvard -2.9Marshall at Southern Miss • FINAL19-13 • 19-16Final Score: Marshall 66-68 Southern Miss
Southern Miss 56.8%Marshall 43.2%
77-80156.7Southern Miss -2.3Old Dominion at UL Monroe • FINAL12-21 • 4-28Final Score: Old Dominion 80-75 UL Monroe
Old Dominion 78.7%UL Monroe 21.3%
83-75158.5Old Dominion -7.9Coastal Carolina at Arkansas State • FINAL19-13 • 20-12Final Score: Coastal Carolina 67-97 Arkansas State
Arkansas State 84.9%Coastal Carolina 15.1%
72-84155.7Arkansas State -11.6Bellarmine at Colorado • FINAL13-19 • 17-16Final Score: Bellarmine 55-79 Colorado
Colorado 79.9%Bellarmine 20.1%
78-88165.7Colorado -9.9Air Force at Boise State • FINAL3-29 • 20-12Final Score: Air Force 59-77 Boise State
Boise State 99.0%Air Force 1.0%
58-89147.6Boise State -30.7Georgia Southern at Texas State • FINAL21-16 • 19-13Final Score: Georgia Southern 61-83 Texas State
Texas State 63.2%Georgia Southern 36.8%
75-80155.2Texas State -4.9Tennessee State at Morehead State • FINAL23-10 • 20-13Final Score: Tennessee State 68-74 Morehead State
Tennessee State 59.7%Morehead State 40.3%
79-76155.0Tennessee State -2.2Lafayette at Portland • FINAL11-21 • 15-19Final Score: Lafayette 64-74 Portland
Portland 70.2%Lafayette 29.8%
72-78150.0Portland -6.2Texas Southern at Abilene Christian • FINAL12-17 • 14-19Final Score: Texas Southern 65-69 Abilene Christian
Abilene Christian 66.5%Texas Southern 33.5%
70-76145.8Abilene Christian -5.4Central Michigan at Arizona • FINAL10-21 • 36-3Final Score: Central Michigan 41-94 Arizona
Arizona 98.9%Central Michigan 1.1%
63-93155.6Arizona -30.5Samford at Alabama A&M • FINAL18-14 • 18-15Final Score: Samford 97-90 Alabama A&M
Samford 69.1%Alabama A&M 30.9%
77-74151.1Samford -3.5Northern Arizona at Southern Utah • FINAL10-22 • 10-22Final Score: Northern Arizona 83-75 Southern Utah
Southern Utah 71.5%Northern Arizona 28.5%
74-81154.4Southern Utah -6.6Idaho at Pacific • FINAL21-15 • 18-15Final Score: Idaho 95-72 Pacific
Pacific 52.7%Idaho 47.3%
73-75147.1Pacific -2.0Washington State at Northern Iowa • FINAL12-20 • 23-13Final Score: Washington State 76-68 Northern Iowa
Northern Iowa 86.8%Washington State 13.2%
64-78142.3Northern Iowa -13.3DePaul at Northwestern • FINAL16-16 • 15-19Final Score: DePaul 64-84 Northwestern
Northwestern 78.4%DePaul 21.6%
67-75142.8Northwestern -7.9Arizona State at Massachusetts • FINAL17-16 • 17-16Final Score: Arizona State 78-62 Massachusetts
Massachusetts 63.8%Arizona State 36.2%
77-83159.9Massachusetts -5.4Villanova at Creighton • FINAL24-9 • 15-18Final Score: Villanova 79-86 Creighton
Villanova 61.6%Creighton 38.4%
77-74151.4Villanova -2.5UT Martin at Southern Indiana • FINAL22-11 • 7-22Final Score: UT Martin 77-46 Southern Indiana
UT Martin 70.8%Southern Indiana 29.2%
70-64133.4UT Martin -6.1Western Illinois at Lindenwood • FINAL5-26 • 18-15Final Score: Western Illinois 65-71 Lindenwood
Lindenwood 94.5%Western Illinois 5.5%
63-84147.3Lindenwood -20.4SIU Edwardsville at Southeast Missouri State • FINAL19-13 • 20-13Final Score: SIU Edwardsville 64-80 Southeast Missouri State
Southeast Missouri State 69.7%SIU Edwardsville 30.3%
67-73140.0Southeast Missouri State -5.2South Dakota at Santa Clara • FINAL16-16 • 26-9Final Score: South Dakota 81-98 Santa Clara
Santa Clara 94.6%South Dakota 5.4%
71-91161.7Santa Clara -19.6Colorado State at Nevada • FINAL21-13 • 24-13Final Score: Colorado State 66-64 Nevada
Nevada 73.1%Colorado State 26.9%
71-78148.7Nevada -7.0California Baptist at Fresno State • FINAL25-9 • 13-19Final Score: California Baptist 86-69 Fresno State
California Baptist 67.7%Fresno State 32.3%
73-70143.1California Baptist -3.6Bethune-Cookman at Davidson • FINAL17-15 • 20-14Final Score: Bethune-Cookman 63-76 Davidson
Davidson 81.6%Bethune-Cookman 18.4%
68-79147.2Davidson -10.9Northern Colorado at Denver • FINAL20-12 • 15-17Final Score: Northern Colorado 82-75 Denver
Northern Colorado 50.1%Denver 49.9%
84-84167.4Northern Colorado -0.4Green Bay at Drake • FINAL18-15 • 14-20Final Score: Green Bay 62-72 Drake
Drake 50.5%Green Bay 49.5%
75-77151.9Drake -2.1IU Indianapolis at Florida International • FINAL7-25 • 15-17Final Score: IU Indianapolis 69-75 Florida International
Florida International 85.3%IU Indianapolis 14.7%
79-92170.8Florida International -12.9Montana at San Francisco • FINAL18-16 • 17-16Final Score: Montana 67-71 San Francisco
San Francisco 73.7%Montana 26.3%
73-79151.9San Francisco -6.5VMI at Richmond • FINAL5-26 • 15-17Final Score: VMI 71-78 Richmond
Richmond 94.6%VMI 5.4%
66-85150.7Richmond -19.0Jacksonville at UCF • FINAL12-20 • 21-12Final Score: Jacksonville 66-86 UCF
UCF 88.2%Jacksonville 11.8%
71-84155.4UCF -13.0Utah at Iowa • FINAL10-22 • 24-13Final Score: Utah 88-95 Iowa
Iowa 94.1%Utah 5.9%
65-84148.4Iowa -18.7Temple at Rhode Island • FINAL16-16 • 16-16Final Score: Temple 79-85 Rhode Island
Rhode Island 62.7%Temple 37.3%
68-73141.3Rhode Island -4.4Eastern Illinois at Little Rock • FINAL13-20 • 12-20Final Score: Eastern Illinois 0-0 Little Rock
Little Rock 72.4%Eastern Illinois 27.6%
67-74140.9Little Rock -6.2THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
0–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
HOW TO READ IT
One projection. One permanent result.
MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.
ACCOUNTABILITY
Every prediction leaves a receipt.
MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.