THE BOARD
The Numbers Behind the Noise.
MMH looks for what conventional rankings, records and the market may be missing.
SIGNATURE MODEL
Numbers Before Narratives.
MMH uses team efficiency, recent performance, strength of schedule and matchup data to produce independent game projections. Pregame predictions are frozen before tipoff so the model has to keep score of its own calls.
THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
0–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
MMH POWER INDEX
2025-26 season • 365 Division I teamsTeam Ratings
MMH MATCHUPS
Games
MATCHUPWIN PROBABILITYPROJECTED SCORETOTALMODEL SPREAD
Rice at South Florida • FINAL13-18 • 25-9Final Score: Rice 73-81 South Florida
South Florida 95.9%Rice 4.1%
69-90159.2South Florida -21.1Dayton at Duquesne • FINAL25-12 • 18-15Final Score: Dayton 72-62 Duquesne
Dayton 62.6%Duquesne 37.4%
76-74150.0Dayton -1.5Manhattan at Rider • FINAL12-20 • 4-25Final Score: Manhattan 58-71 Rider
Manhattan 65.2%Rider 34.8%
75-72147.2Manhattan -3.2Quinnipiac at Marist • FINAL19-13 • 19-12Final Score: Quinnipiac 66-55 Marist
Marist 62.5%Quinnipiac 37.5%
68-72140.0Marist -4.9Fairfield at Niagara • FINAL21-13 • 8-22Final Score: Fairfield 72-96 Niagara
Fairfield 74.7%Niagara 25.3%
73-67140.1Fairfield -6.5Siena at Canisius • FINAL23-12 • 10-21Final Score: Siena 63-67 Canisius
Siena 84.7%Canisius 15.3%
72-62133.1Siena -10.0Buffalo at Akron • FINAL17-15 • 29-6Final Score: Buffalo 59-76 Akron
Akron 90.9%Buffalo 9.1%
73-89162.0Akron -16.6Purdue Fort Wayne at Robert Morris • FINAL17-15 • 22-11Final Score: Purdue Fort Wayne 88-91 Robert Morris
Robert Morris 87.5%Purdue Fort Wayne 12.5%
71-84154.9Robert Morris -12.6Stetson at Queens University • FINAL12-21 • 21-14Final Score: Stetson 84-66 Queens University
Queens University 86.0%Stetson 14.0%
76-89165.2Queens University -12.4Jacksonville at North Florida • FINAL12-20 • 7-25Final Score: Jacksonville 74-82 North Florida
Jacksonville 57.5%North Florida 42.5%
82-79160.8Jacksonville -2.5Florida Gulf Coast at Kennesaw State • FINAL16-18 • 21-14Final Score: Florida Gulf Coast 75-78 Kennesaw State
Kennesaw State 78.6%Florida Gulf Coast 21.4%
75-85159.9Kennesaw State -9.8DePaul at Villanova • FINAL16-16 • 24-9Final Score: DePaul 69-94 Villanova
Villanova 85.0%DePaul 15.0%
67-78144.7Villanova -11.6Wright State at Youngstown State • FINAL23-12 • 14-17Final Score: Wright State 71-81 Youngstown State
Wright State 65.7%Youngstown State 34.3%
77-75152.1Wright State -2.8Nebraska at Iowa • FINAL28-7 • 24-13Final Score: Nebraska 76-94 Iowa
Iowa 54.9%Nebraska 45.1%
70-72142.2Iowa -1.4Boise State at Nevada • FINAL20-12 • 24-13Final Score: Boise State 64-56 Nevada
Nevada 63.2%Boise State 36.8%
74-78151.5Nevada -4.1Penn State at Purdue • FINAL12-20 • 30-9Final Score: Penn State 78-95 Purdue
Purdue 98.1%Penn State 1.9%
65-91155.3Purdue -25.8Houston at TCU • FINAL29-7 • 23-12Final Score: Houston 67-68 TCU
Houston 78.7%TCU 21.3%
76-69145.3Houston -7.5Oklahoma at Kansas • FINAL21-16 • 24-11Final Score: Oklahoma 66-78 Kansas
Kansas 62.2%Oklahoma 37.8%
75-80154.8Kansas -5.1Tennessee at Georgia • FINAL25-12 • 22-11Final Score: Tennessee 85-79 Georgia
Georgia 50.2%Tennessee 49.8%
81-82162.8Georgia -1.6Kentucky at Texas A&M • FINAL22-14 • 20-12Final Score: Kentucky 92-97 Texas A&M
Kentucky 53.7%Texas A&M 46.3%
79-79158.2Texas A&M -0.3Syracuse at North Carolina • FINAL15-16 • 24-9Final Score: Syracuse 67-103 North Carolina
North Carolina 87.6%Syracuse 12.4%
70-83152.1North Carolina -13.1Arizona at Washington State • FINAL36-3 • 12-20Final Score: Arizona 70-73 Washington State
Arizona 95.1%Washington State 4.9%
88-69157.7Arizona -18.8Georgia Tech at Duke • FINAL11-20 • 35-3Final Score: Georgia Tech 79-84 Duke
Duke 99.0%Georgia Tech 1.0%
59-91149.9Duke -31.9Northwestern at Wisconsin • FINAL15-19 • 24-11Final Score: Northwestern 63-71 Wisconsin
Wisconsin 82.1%Northwestern 17.9%
72-83154.5Wisconsin -10.9LSU at Auburn • FINAL15-17 • 21-16Final Score: LSU 78-93 Auburn
Auburn 83.8%LSU 16.2%
78-88165.5Auburn -10.0BYU at UCF • FINAL23-12 • 21-12Final Score: BYU 63-58 UCF
BYU 56.2%UCF 43.8%
82-81163.2BYU -1.3San Diego State at New Mexico • FINAL22-10 • 26-11Final Score: San Diego State 70-88 New Mexico
New Mexico 71.3%San Diego State 28.7%
73-79152.3New Mexico -6.7Utah State at UNLV • FINAL29-7 • 18-16Final Score: Utah State 87-86 UNLV
Utah State 71.7%UNLV 28.3%
82-76158.5Utah State -6.2Boston College at Clemson • FINAL11-20 • 24-10Final Score: Boston College 78-89 Clemson
Clemson 89.6%Boston College 10.4%
61-75136.0Clemson -14.9St. John's at Creighton • FINAL30-6 • 15-18Final Score: St. John's 65-66 Creighton
St. John's 84.4%Creighton 15.6%
82-71152.6St. John's -10.4Texas at West Virginia • FINAL21-15 • 21-14Final Score: Texas 73-76 West Virginia
Texas 51.5%West Virginia 48.5%
74-75148.9West Virginia -0.9NC State at Louisville • FINAL20-14 • 24-11Final Score: NC State 89-83 Louisville
Louisville 78.4%NC State 21.6%
76-86162.1Louisville -9.5Towson at Northeastern • FINAL19-15 • 8-23Final Score: Towson 59-67 Northeastern
Towson 72.1%Northeastern 27.9%
76-70146.3Towson -5.9Seton Hall at Butler • FINAL21-12 • 16-16Final Score: Seton Hall 78-72 Butler
Butler 50.5%Seton Hall 49.5%
73-74147.2Butler -0.4Ohio at Western Michigan • FINAL15-17 • 10-21Final Score: Ohio 79-81 Western Michigan
Ohio 51.8%Western Michigan 48.2%
79-79158.6Western Michigan -0.4Morehead State at SIU Edwardsville • FINAL20-13 • 19-13Final Score: Morehead State 48-61 SIU Edwardsville
SIU Edwardsville 66.0%Morehead State 34.0%
68-75143.0SIU Edwardsville -6.7VCU at La Salle • FINAL28-8 • 9-23Final Score: VCU 71-65 La Salle
VCU 90.1%La Salle 9.9%
81-67148.0VCU -13.8Presbyterian at Gardner-Webb • FINAL15-18 • 4-29Final Score: Presbyterian 60-76 Gardner-Webb
Presbyterian 84.8%Gardner-Webb 15.2%
81-69150.8Presbyterian -11.9Stony Brook at William & Mary • FINAL17-15 • 20-12Final Score: Stony Brook 63-59 William & Mary
William & Mary 78.8%Stony Brook 21.2%
73-82154.2William & Mary -9.1Vanderbilt at Ole Miss • FINAL27-9 • 15-20Final Score: Vanderbilt 56-69 Ole Miss
Vanderbilt 77.9%Ole Miss 22.1%
84-76159.9Vanderbilt -8.0Stonehill at Fairleigh Dickinson • FINAL12-21 • 11-21Final Score: Stonehill 74-81 Fairleigh Dickinson
Fairleigh Dickinson 63.5%Stonehill 36.5%
65-69134.9Fairleigh Dickinson -3.9Eastern Michigan at Miami (OH) • FINAL10-21 • 32-2Final Score: Eastern Michigan 54-71 Miami (OH)
Miami (OH) 92.0%Eastern Michigan 8.0%
70-88157.6Miami (OH) -17.9Wofford at The Citadel • FINAL19-13 • 11-22Final Score: Wofford 72-71 The Citadel
Wofford 71.4%The Citadel 28.6%
80-75154.2Wofford -5.2Northern Kentucky at Detroit Mercy • FINAL20-14 • 17-15Final Score: Northern Kentucky 81-76 Detroit Mercy
Northern Kentucky 52.9%Detroit Mercy 47.1%
81-80161.3Northern Kentucky -0.7UMBC at UMass Lowell • FINAL24-8 • 15-18Final Score: UMBC 82-86 UMass Lowell
UMBC 76.8%UMass Lowell 23.2%
76-69145.7UMBC -7.1Virginia at Wake Forest • FINAL30-6 • 18-17Final Score: Virginia 47-66 Wake Forest
Virginia 67.9%Wake Forest 32.1%
80-75155.2Virginia -4.9Bradley at UIC • FINAL21-13 • 19-16Final Score: Bradley 77-59 UIC
UIC 68.3%Bradley 31.7%
72-78150.1UIC -5.7Belmont at Indiana State • FINAL26-6 • 11-21Final Score: Belmont 64-94 Indiana State
Belmont 80.7%Indiana State 19.3%
82-73155.3Belmont -8.6Radford at Winthrop • FINAL16-16 • 23-11Final Score: Radford 88-92 Winthrop
Winthrop 80.7%Radford 19.3%
77-87164.1Winthrop -10.6Longwood at UNC Asheville • FINAL16-16 • 15-17Final Score: Longwood 61-65 UNC Asheville
UNC Asheville 63.0%Longwood 37.0%
74-77150.9UNC Asheville -3.5South Carolina Upstate at Charleston Southern • FINAL13-19 • 15-17Final Score: South Carolina Upstate 70-77 Charleston Southern
Charleston Southern 72.0%South Carolina Upstate 28.0%
76-83159.1Charleston Southern -7.0Hofstra at Campbell • FINAL24-11 • 15-18Final Score: Hofstra 68-69 Campbell
Hofstra 60.0%Campbell 40.0%
77-74151.2Hofstra -2.9Xavier at Providence • FINAL15-18 • 15-18Final Score: Xavier 85-65 Providence
Providence 73.7%Xavier 26.3%
81-89169.5Providence -7.5Navy at Lafayette • FINAL26-8 • 11-21Final Score: Navy 62-78 Lafayette
Navy 80.3%Lafayette 19.7%
75-66141.3Navy -9.3Davidson at George Washington • FINAL20-14 • 19-16Final Score: Davidson 79-83 George Washington
George Washington 78.0%Davidson 22.0%
70-79149.1George Washington -9.1Massachusetts at Rhode Island • FINAL17-16 • 16-16Final Score: Massachusetts 77-89 Rhode Island
Rhode Island 61.1%Massachusetts 38.9%
73-77149.3Rhode Island -4.0Merrimack at Le Moyne • FINAL23-11 • 15-17Final Score: Merrimack 66-62 Le Moyne
Merrimack 65.9%Le Moyne 34.1%
71-69140.2Merrimack -2.6Long Island University at Sacred Heart • FINAL24-11 • 14-19Final Score: Long Island University 55-89 Sacred Heart
Long Island University 61.0%Sacred Heart 39.0%
76-74150.3Long Island University -1.7Kent State at Central Michigan • FINAL24-10 • 10-21Final Score: Kent State 62-77 Central Michigan
Kent State 66.4%Central Michigan 33.6%
83-78160.8Kent State -4.4East Tennessee State at Furman • FINAL23-11 • 22-13Final Score: East Tennessee State 73-82 Furman
Furman 53.0%East Tennessee State 47.0%
73-75148.3Furman -1.4Western Carolina at Mercer • FINAL15-16 • 19-13Final Score: Western Carolina 64-52 Mercer
Mercer 65.3%Western Carolina 34.7%
77-84160.7Mercer -6.4Oakland at IU Indianapolis • FINAL16-16 • 7-25Final Score: Oakland 88-66 IU Indianapolis
Oakland 72.8%IU Indianapolis 27.2%
90-85174.6Oakland -5.2NJIT at Vermont • FINAL16-17 • 22-12Final Score: NJIT 55-76 Vermont
Vermont 89.4%NJIT 10.6%
63-78141.0Vermont -14.7Houston Christian at East Texas A&M • FINAL12-20 • 11-21Final Score: Houston Christian 69-65 East Texas A&M
East Texas A&M 59.5%Houston Christian 40.5%
69-73142.0East Texas A&M -3.7Florida State at Notre Dame • FINAL18-15 • 13-17Final Score: Florida State 67-58 Notre Dame
Florida State 62.1%Notre Dame 37.9%
80-78157.5Florida State -1.7Fordham at St. Bonaventure • FINAL17-15 • 17-17Final Score: Fordham 80-74 St. Bonaventure
St. Bonaventure 68.7%Fordham 31.3%
69-74143.2St. Bonaventure -4.6South Dakota State at Denver • FINAL14-18 • 15-17Final Score: South Dakota State 80-99 Denver
Denver 61.1%South Dakota State 38.9%
79-82160.7Denver -2.6North Dakota at Kansas City • FINAL18-17 • 4-27Final Score: North Dakota 82-69 Kansas City
North Dakota 81.7%Kansas City 18.3%
83-73156.5North Dakota -9.5Seattle U at UT Arlington • FINAL21-14 • 18-14Final Score: Seattle U 75-80 UT Arlington
UT Arlington 57.7%Seattle U 42.3%
67-70137.0UT Arlington -2.8South Carolina at Missouri • FINAL13-19 • 20-13Final Score: South Carolina 71-69 Missouri
Missouri 81.9%South Carolina 18.1%
73-83155.8Missouri -10.4Colgate at Bucknell • FINAL18-15 • 10-23Final Score: Colgate 84-73 Bucknell
Colgate 72.1%Bucknell 27.9%
77-72148.7Colgate -5.6Texas State at UL Monroe • FINAL19-13 • 4-28Final Score: Texas State 67-54 UL Monroe
Texas State 82.5%UL Monroe 17.5%
82-71152.7Texas State -10.4Old Dominion at Coastal Carolina • FINAL12-21 • 19-13Final Score: Old Dominion 75-79 Coastal Carolina
Coastal Carolina 61.4%Old Dominion 38.6%
74-78152.0Coastal Carolina -4.8Louisiana at Arkansas State • FINAL11-22 • 20-12Final Score: Louisiana 84-77 Arkansas State
Arkansas State 93.3%Louisiana 6.7%
65-83148.3Arkansas State -18.0Maryland Eastern Shore at Howard • FINAL9-23 • 24-11Final Score: Maryland Eastern Shore 61-72 Howard
Howard 96.2%Maryland Eastern Shore 3.8%
60-81140.9Howard -21.5Kansas State at Texas Tech • FINAL12-20 • 23-11Final Score: Kansas State 59-60 Texas Tech
Texas Tech 93.0%Kansas State 7.0%
72-89161.2Texas Tech -17.3SMU at East Carolina • FINAL20-14 • 11-20Final Score: SMU 75-64 East Carolina
SMU 82.0%East Carolina 18.0%
84-75158.8SMU -9.7Fresno State at Wyoming • FINAL13-19 • 18-15Final Score: Fresno State 67-68 Wyoming
Wyoming 81.9%Fresno State 18.1%
70-80149.3Wyoming -10.0Southern at Florida A&M • FINAL17-17 • 14-16Final Score: Southern 74-65 Florida A&M
Southern 51.5%Florida A&M 48.5%
77-76153.1Southern -0.3Army at American University • FINAL11-21 • 16-16Final Score: Army 60-79 American University
American University 85.6%Army 14.4%
68-81149.2American University -12.7Arkansas at Florida • FINAL28-9 • 27-8Final Score: Arkansas 68-90 Florida
Florida 84.1%Arkansas 15.9%
79-91170.5Florida -11.8Loyola Chicago at Saint Joseph's • FINAL9-24 • 24-12Final Score: Loyola Chicago 78-75 Saint Joseph's
Saint Joseph's 87.9%Loyola Chicago 12.1%
64-79143.3Saint Joseph's -14.6Central Connecticut at Saint Francis • FINAL18-12 • 7-24Final Score: Central Connecticut 75-61 Saint Francis
Central Connecticut 68.9%Saint Francis 31.1%
78-72150.3Central Connecticut -5.7Bowling Green at Northern Illinois • FINAL18-14 • 9-21Final Score: Bowling Green 83-72 Northern Illinois
Bowling Green 91.1%Northern Illinois 8.9%
84-69152.1Bowling Green -15.1Southeast Missouri State at Tennessee Tech • FINAL20-13 • 13-18Final Score: Southeast Missouri State 59-70 Tennessee Tech
Southeast Missouri State 58.4%Tennessee Tech 41.6%
75-73147.7Southeast Missouri State -1.7South Alabama at Marshall • FINAL21-12 • 19-13Final Score: South Alabama 91-85 Marshall
Marshall 64.0%South Alabama 36.0%
75-79154.0Marshall -4.6App State at James Madison • FINAL19-13 • 18-15Final Score: App State 59-55 James Madison
James Madison 57.4%App State 42.6%
71-73143.5James Madison -1.7Binghamton at UAlbany • FINAL8-22 • 11-20Final Score: Binghamton 75-95 UAlbany
UAlbany 82.7%Binghamton 17.3%
63-74137.7UAlbany -11.2Incarnate Word at Northwestern State • FINAL12-19 • 10-21Final Score: Incarnate Word 71-97 Northwestern State
Northwestern State 53.5%Incarnate Word 46.5%
70-72141.6Northwestern State -1.4Lamar at Nicholls • FINAL12-19 • 14-19Final Score: Lamar 78-76 Nicholls
Nicholls 61.1%Lamar 38.9%
70-73143.4Nicholls -2.6Grambling at Bethune-Cookman • FINAL14-19 • 17-15Final Score: Grambling 79-69 Bethune-Cookman
Bethune-Cookman 69.4%Grambling 30.6%
71-76147.5Bethune-Cookman -4.8Cal State Fullerton at Cal State Northridge • FINAL18-16 • 20-14Final Score: Cal State Fullerton 71-76 Cal State Northridge
Cal State Northridge 64.0%Cal State Fullerton 36.0%
82-87168.2Cal State Northridge -4.8Monmouth at Charleston • FINAL19-15 • 21-11Final Score: Monmouth 83-94 Charleston
Charleston 66.5%Monmouth 33.5%
71-76147.3Charleston -5.0Little Rock at UT Martin • FINAL12-20 • 22-11Final Score: Little Rock 72-77 UT Martin
UT Martin 76.0%Little Rock 24.0%
64-74138.0UT Martin -10.4Lindenwood at Tennessee State • FINAL18-15 • 23-10Final Score: Lindenwood 60-75 Tennessee State
Tennessee State 81.3%Lindenwood 18.7%
73-82155.2Tennessee State -9.0Western Illinois at Eastern Illinois • FINAL5-26 • 13-20Final Score: Western Illinois 63-60 Eastern Illinois
Eastern Illinois 88.8%Western Illinois 11.2%
62-77139.1Eastern Illinois -14.3Bellarmine at Central Arkansas • FINAL13-19 • 22-12Final Score: Bellarmine 57-59 Central Arkansas
Central Arkansas 82.1%Bellarmine 17.9%
76-87163.0Central Arkansas -11.9Alcorn State at Alabama State • FINAL9-23 • 10-22Final Score: Alcorn State 53-55 Alabama State
Alabama State 81.8%Alcorn State 18.2%
69-81150.5Alabama State -11.6Holy Cross at Lehigh • FINAL11-22 • 18-17Final Score: Holy Cross 69-66 Lehigh
Lehigh 78.4%Holy Cross 21.6%
68-77144.7Lehigh -9.0Boston University at Loyola Maryland • FINAL16-18 • 12-20Final Score: Boston University 60-58 Loyola Maryland
Boston University 63.4%Loyola Maryland 36.6%
77-76153.2Boston University -1.8Southern Miss at Troy • FINAL19-16 • 22-12Final Score: Southern Miss 56-82 Troy
Troy 72.7%Southern Miss 27.3%
72-80152.6Troy -7.9Georgia Southern at Georgia State • FINAL21-16 • 10-22Final Score: Georgia Southern 62-90 Georgia State
Georgia Southern 65.2%Georgia State 34.8%
79-76155.4Georgia Southern -2.6Texas A&M-Corpus Christi at New Orleans • FINAL18-15 • 16-18Final Score: Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 80-83 New Orleans
New Orleans 58.2%Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 41.8%
73-75147.8New Orleans -1.4SE Louisiana at McNeese • FINAL9-21 • 27-6Final Score: SE Louisiana 65-74 McNeese
McNeese 97.4%SE Louisiana 2.6%
56-80135.3McNeese -24.0Austin Peay at Lipscomb • FINAL22-9 • 18-13Final Score: Austin Peay 77-91 Lipscomb
Austin Peay 56.5%Lipscomb 43.5%
78-77155.4Austin Peay -1.2Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky • FINAL15-17 • 18-14Final Score: Jacksonville State 69-80 Western Kentucky
Western Kentucky 73.1%Jacksonville State 26.9%
72-78149.8Western Kentucky -6.4Cal State Bakersfield at UC Davis • FINAL8-24 • 19-14Final Score: Cal State Bakersfield 71-78 UC Davis
UC Davis 91.0%Cal State Bakersfield 9.0%
70-87157.0UC Davis -16.4Arkansas-Pine Bluff at Texas Southern • FINAL13-19 • 12-17Final Score: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 70-67 Texas Southern
Texas Southern 67.8%Arkansas-Pine Bluff 32.2%
75-81155.4Texas Southern -5.9Temple at North Texas • FINAL16-16 • 19-14Final Score: Temple 51-69 North Texas
North Texas 65.8%Temple 34.2%
68-73141.6North Texas -5.3George Mason at Richmond • FINAL23-10 • 15-17Final Score: George Mason 70-77 Richmond
George Mason 55.6%Richmond 44.4%
74-73146.8George Mason -0.4VMI at Samford • FINAL5-26 • 18-14Final Score: VMI 96-134 Samford
Samford 96.4%VMI 3.6%
66-87152.9Samford -20.9Jackson State at Alabama A&M • FINAL12-21 • 18-15Final Score: Jackson State 75-67 Alabama A&M
Alabama A&M 85.8%Jackson State 14.2%
69-83151.1Alabama A&M -14.0Sam Houston at Middle Tennessee • FINAL22-12 • 17-15Final Score: Sam Houston 60-51 Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee 52.7%Sam Houston 47.3%
77-78155.4Middle Tennessee -0.9UTEP at Florida International • FINAL11-20 • 15-17Final Score: UTEP 68-72 Florida International
Florida International 76.5%UTEP 23.5%
72-81152.1Florida International -9.0Mississippi Valley State at Prairie View A&M • FINAL3-30 • 19-18Final Score: Mississippi Valley State 60-71 Prairie View A&M
Prairie View A&M 96.0%Mississippi Valley State 4.0%
65-88153.2Prairie View A&M -22.9THE RECEIPTS
View every call →MMH Keeps Score of Itself
0–0Model Record
Full MMH tracking begins with the 2026–27 season.
HOW TO READ IT
One projection. One permanent result.
MMH publishes its win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff. The pregame prediction is then frozen so the result can be measured without hindsight.
ACCOUNTABILITY
Every prediction leaves a receipt.
MMH permanently records its pregame win probability, projected score and model spread before tipoff, then grades the prediction against the final result.